# U.S. Aluminum Metal Market

> U.S. aluminum metal market: USD 13.87 billion in 2025 and USD 19.97 billion in 2026 as the tariff premium doubles, reaching USD 23.51 billion by 2035 at 1.83% a year.

Publisher: Douglas Insights  
Author: Douglas Insights Research Desk  
Report code: DI-CM-10853  
Published: 2026-11-06  
Last updated: 2026-11-06  
Next review: May 2027  
Page: https://www.douglasinsights.com/u-s-aluminum-metal-market/

## Key figures

| Measure | Value | How it is built |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Market size · 2025 | $13.87 Bn | About 3.40 million tonnes x USD 4,080 per tonne delivered. |
| Forecast · 2035 | $23.51 Bn | From USD 19.97 billion in 2026: 1.60% tonnes and 0.23% price a year. |
| Revenue CAGR · 2026–2035 | 1.83% | (1.0160 x 1.0023) minus 1. |
| Volume · 2035 | About 3.98 million tonnes | 3.45 million tonnes in 2026 growing 1.60% a year. |
| Leading segment | Extrusion billet, 34.0% | USD 4.72 billion in 2025 for building, vehicle and solar extruders. |
| Fastest segment | Wire rod, 3.4% | USD 971.0 million to USD 1.89 billion on transmission conductors. |
| Fastest region | Southeast, 2.4% | USD 4.16 billion to USD 7.42 billion on new rolling, extrusion and vehicle plants. |
| Market leader | Rio Tinto, about 25.0% (estimate) | Douglas Insights estimate; top five about 70.1%. |
| Event | Jan-Jul 2026: delivered price 260.783 cents a pound vs LME 152.058 | USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, July 2026. |

## Key takeaways

- The U.S. aluminum metal market is worth USD 13.87 billion in 2025, USD 19.97 billion in 2026 and USD 23.51 billion in 2035, a 1.83% revenue CAGR from 2026.
- About 3.40 million tonnes at USD 4,080 a tonne form the 2025 base; tonnes grow 1.60% a year and price 0.23% from the 2026 peak.
- Extrusion billet leads at 34.0%; wire rod grows fastest at 3.4% a year.
- The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley buy 38.0% of value; the Southeast grows fastest at 2.4%; Rio Tinto leads with about 25.0%.
- About 69.9% of the 2026 delivered premium is the 50% Section 232 duty, by the Douglas Insights Tariff Premium Pass-Through Ledger.

The U.S. market price for aluminum, including the delivered premium, averaged 260.783 cents a pound from January to July 2026 against 178.187 cents in 2025, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price averaged only 152.058 cents, the US Geological Survey (USGS) [Mineral Industry Surveys for July 2026](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-alumi.xlsx) show. The U.S. aluminum metal market covers primary and alloyed unwrought aluminum sold to American fabricators: extrusion billet, standard ingot, rolling slab, foundry alloy ingot, wire rod and high-purity metal, from domestic smelters and imports. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 13.87 billion in 2025, about 3.40 million tonnes at an average USD 4,080 a tonne, USD 19.97 billion in 2026 as the premium jumps, and USD 23.51 billion in 2035, a 1.83% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2026. The study is the U.S. part of our worldwide [Aluminum Metal Market](https://www.douglasinsights.com/aluminum-metal-market/) model and sits beside our [Aluminum Extrusion Market](https://www.douglasinsights.com/aluminum-extrusion-market/), [Aluminum Wire Market](https://www.douglasinsights.com/aluminum-wire-market/) and [Metal Recycling Market](https://www.douglasinsights.com/metal-recycling-market/) reports; every figure follows the Douglas Insights [research methodology](https://www.douglasinsights.com/research-methodology/).

## Which U.S. aluminum metal product form earns the most: extrusion billet, standard ingot or rolling slab?

Extrusion billet earns the most, 34.0% of 2025 U.S. aluminum metal value or about USD 4.72 billion, Douglas Insights estimates. Wire rod grows fastest, at 3.4% a year from 2026 to USD 1.89 billion by 2035.

| Product form | Share 2025 | Value 2025 | CAGR 2026-2035 | Value 2035 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Extrusion billet | 34.0% | USD 4.72 billion | 2.3% | USD 8.33 billion |
| Standard ingot | 22.0% | USD 3.05 billion | 1.0% | USD 4.80 billion |
| Rolling slab | 20.0% | USD 2.77 billion | 2.0% | USD 4.77 billion |
| Foundry alloy ingot | 13.0% | USD 1.80 billion | 1.2% | USD 2.89 billion |
| Wire rod | 7.0% | USD 971.0 million | 3.4% | USD 1.89 billion |
| High-purity and other forms | 4.0% | USD 554.9 million | 2.0% | USD 954.5 million |

Billet leads because extruders turn it into window frames, truck parts, solar mounting rails and data-centre racks, and its 34.0% share sits above the 31% worldwide figure in our parent model. Billet value grows 2.3% a year to USD 8.33 billion by 2035, faster than the 1.83% total, as building and vehicle extruders keep buying value-added logs rather than remelting ingot. Standard ingot, USD 3.05 billion, grows only 1.0% because it is the form most exposed to import swings and to remelters switching to scrap.

Rolling slab, USD 2.77 billion, grows 2.0% to USD 4.77 billion as can-sheet and automotive-sheet mills run harder, though Novelis's new Bay Minette, Alabama plant, with 600,000 tonnes a year of rolling capacity, is built to run mostly on recycled cans, its [release of 7 October 2026](https://investors.novelis.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1427/novelis-produces-first-coil-at-greenfield-aluminum-rolling-and-recycling-plant-in-alabama) states. Foundry alloy ingot, USD 1.80 billion, grows 1.2% with engine and wheel castings. Wire rod, USD 971.0 million, grows fastest at 3.4% on transmission conductors, and high-purity metal, USD 554.9 million, grows 2.0%. Form values for 2035 sum to USD 23.64 billion, 0.53% above the headline.

## How does U.S. aluminum metal demand split by end use, supply origin and contract type?

Transport takes about 33.0% of 2025 U.S. aluminum metal value, roughly USD 4.58 billion, Douglas Insights estimates; construction and solar take 24.0%, packaging 17.0%, electrical 13.0% and machinery and other uses 13.0%.

By origin, domestic smelters supplied about 664,000 tonnes in 2025, the [USGS July 2026 survey](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-alumi.xlsx) shows, or about 19.5% of the 3.40 million tonnes we count. Imports of crude metal were 3.01 million tonnes in 2025, and from January to July 2026 Canada shipped 1.05 million of the 1.69 million tonnes of crude imports, about 62%, and the United Arab Emirates 244,000 tonnes, about 14%, the same survey's import tables show. The USGS [Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-aluminum.pdf) put net import reliance at 60% of apparent consumption of 5.70 million tonnes, a figure that includes recycled metal.

By contract, about 70% of tonnes move on annual or multi-year supply agreements priced at the LME plus the delivered premium, and 30% on spot purchases, a Douglas Insights estimate. That split matters in 2026, because annual contracts signed in late 2025 locked in premiums well below the record levels seen by spring 2026, so realised prices lag the spot index by roughly one to two quarters.

## What drives U.S. aluminum metal demand: grid wire, vehicles, buildings and data centres, or packaging?

Tonnes sold rise 1.60% a year in our base case, from about 3.45 million in 2026 to 3.98 million in 2035. Four drivers add 2.40 gross points; three restraints remove 0.80.

### Grid and electrical conductors: 0.70 points

Grid wire is the largest driver, worth 0.70 points. North American aluminum demand reached 13.57 billion pounds in the first half of 2026, up 3.5%, and apparent consumption rose 1.8% to 12.14 billion pounds, the Aluminum Association's [release of 26 October 2026](https://www.aluminum.org/news/north-american-aluminum-demand-35-through-first-half-2026) states, with growth carried by imports. Utilities string aluminum conductor on new transmission and on interconnections for solar, storage and data centres, and Douglas Insights estimates electrical uses need about 450,000 tonnes of primary metal in 2026, rising to about 600,000 by 2035.

### Vehicles and trucks: 0.60 points

Transport adds 0.60 points. Light vehicles carry more aluminum sheet, extrusions and castings each model cycle, and battery enclosures and crash structures add about 50 to 80 kilograms per electric vehicle, a Douglas Insights estimate. Alcoa shipped 693,000 tonnes of aluminum in the third quarter of 2026 at an average realised third-party price of USD 4,527 a tonne, its [results of 15 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001675149/000119312526422891/aa-ex99_1.htm) show, and it guided to 2.6 million to 2.8 million tonnes of 2026 shipments, a sign that automotive and packaging customers are still taking metal despite higher prices.

### Buildings, solar and data centres: 0.60 points

Construction and solar add 0.60 points. North American demand reached an estimated 26.65 billion pounds in 2025, up 0.8%, while extrusion demand fell 3.1% and imports rose 9.1%, the Aluminum Association's [release of 18 May 2026](https://www.aluminum.org/news/north-american-aluminum-demand-steady-2025) shows. Douglas Insights expects extrusion demand to recover from 2027 as data-centre shells, solar trackers and commercial glazing need billet; each 1-gigawatt solar farm uses roughly 15,000 to 20,000 tonnes of aluminum in frames and mounts, a Douglas Insights estimate.

### Packaging and foil: 0.50 points

Packaging adds the last 0.50 points, mainly beverage-can sheet and foil, though most can sheet now uses recycled content. Summed, 0.70 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.50 = 2.40 points, a Douglas Insights estimate; after 0.80 points of restraints, the 1.60% tonne leg multiplied by the 0.23% price leg gives the 1.83% revenue rate.

## What holds back U.S. aluminum metal tonnes: recycled metal, semi-finished imports or derivative tariffs?

Three restraints remove 0.80 points a year from tonne growth: recycled metal takes 0.40 points, imports of semi-finished products 0.25 points and derivative tariffs 0.15 points, Douglas Insights estimates.

Recycling is the sharpest drag on primary metal. Secondary recovery reached 2.26 million tonnes from January to July 2026, up 6.1% from 2.13 million a year earlier, the [USGS July 2026 survey](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-alumi.xlsx) shows, and full-year 2025 recovery was 3.69 million tonnes. The USGS [Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-aluminum.pdf) recorded a 650,000-tonne recycled flat-rolled mill in Mississippi shipping first coils in June 2025 and a Minnesota recycling plant reaching 165,000 tonnes a year in July 2025. Each tonne of scrap remelted into sheet or billet is a tonne of primary metal not bought.

Semi-finished imports take 0.25 points. Imports of semi-fabricated products jumped to 1.02 million tonnes from January to July 2026 from 717,000 tonnes a year earlier, up 42%, while crude metal imports fell to 1.69 million tonnes from 1.97 million, the same survey shows. When foreign mills ship finished sheet or extrusions, U.S. fabricators skip buying metal. Derivative tariffs take the final 0.15 points: the Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum derivatives list on 19 August 2025, its [Bureau of Industry and Security release](https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-adds-407-product-categories-steel-aluminum-tariffs) states, which raises the cost of aluminum-heavy goods and trims downstream demand.

## Which U.S. region buys the most aluminum metal: the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the Southeast or the West?

The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley buy the most U.S. aluminum metal, about USD 5.27 billion or 38.0% of 2025 value. The Southeast grows fastest, at 2.4% a year to USD 7.42 billion by 2035, on new rolling, extrusion and battery plants.

| Region | Value 2025 | Share 2025 | Value 2026 | CAGR 2026-2035 | Value 2035 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Great Lakes and Ohio Valley | USD 5.27 billion | 38.0% | USD 7.59 billion | 1.4% | USD 8.60 billion |
| Southeast | USD 4.16 billion | 30.0% | USD 5.99 billion | 2.4% | USD 7.42 billion |
| Southwest and West | USD 2.50 billion | 18.0% | USD 3.59 billion | 2.2% | USD 4.37 billion |
| Northeast | USD 1.94 billion | 14.0% | USD 2.80 billion | 0.8% | USD 3.00 billion |

The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley lead because the automotive casting, extrusion and rolling belt from Michigan and Indiana to Kentucky and Ohio sits there, along with Century's Sebree smelter and Alcoa's Warrick smelter and rolling mill. Alcoa's 2025 annual report lists Warrick at 215,000 tonnes a year of capacity, 54,000 of it idle at 31 December 2025, and Massena West in New York at 130,000 tonnes, its [Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm) states. Value there grows 1.4% a year to USD 8.60 billion.

The Southeast, USD 4.16 billion, grows 2.4% as Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas add rolling capacity and vehicle plants, and Century's Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina restarted its last 90 pots by mid-2026, its [second-quarter results of 6 August 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm) show. The Southwest and West, USD 2.50 billion, grow 2.2% on Texas data centres, solar and the planned Oklahoma smelter's future metal. The Northeast, USD 1.94 billion, grows 0.8%. Regional values sum to USD 19.97 billion in 2026, equal to the headline, and USD 23.39 billion in 2035, 0.53% below it.

## Which companies lead the U.S. aluminum metal market, and how concentrated is supply?

Rio Tinto leads U.S. aluminum metal supply with about 25.0% of 2025 value, a Douglas Insights estimate based on its Canadian smelters, ahead of Alcoa at 19.0% and Century Aluminum at 11.1%. The top five hold about 70.1%.

| Company | Base and position | Latest filed figure | Estimated share 2025 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Rio Tinto | London and Montreal; Quebec and British Columbia smelters | Aluminium output 2.52 million tonnes, nine months to 30 September 2026 | 25.0% |
| Alcoa | Pittsburgh; Warrick and Massena smelters, Canadian smelters | Revenue USD 3.70 billion, third quarter 2026 | 19.0% |
| Century Aluminum | Chicago; Sebree and Mt. Holly smelters | U.S. shipments 98,183 tonnes, third quarter 2026 | 11.1% |
| Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) | Abu Dhabi; imports, planned Oklahoma smelter | Not split by U.S. sales | 11.0% |
| Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) | Bahrain; ingot and billet exports | Not split by U.S. sales | 4.0% |

Century Aluminum earned net income of USD 302.6 million on net sales of USD 961.2 million in the third quarter of 2026, and its U.S. primary aluminum sales rose to USD 580.0 million on 98,183 tonnes from USD 367.6 million on 90,703 tonnes a year earlier, its [results of 5 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000949157/000162828026071024/a20260930q3ex991earningsre.htm) show. That is about USD 5,907 a tonne against USD 4,053 a year before, a 45.8% rise in realised price on 8.2% more tonnes. Rio Tinto produced 0.8 million tonnes of aluminium in the third quarter of 2026 and guided to 3.25 million to 3.45 million tonnes for the year, its [production results of 14 October 2026](https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2026/rio-tinto-releases-third-quarter-2026-production-results) show.

Alcoa paid USD 571 million of Section 232 tariff costs in 2025 on Canadian metal shipped south, its [2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm) states, and on 11 September 2026 agreed to buy South32's aluminium assets, excluding Mozal, for up to about USD 5.6 billion of enterprise value, its [filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526388663/d23778d425.htm) shows. No supplier reports U.S. metal sales by product form, so every share in the table is a Douglas Insights estimate; South32, Hydro, Matalco, Vedanta and traders share most of the remaining 29.9%.

## How is U.S. aluminum metal priced, and how much of the delivered premium is tariff?

U.S. aluminum metal sells for an average USD 4,080 a tonne in 2025, Douglas Insights estimates, 47.8% above the USD 2,760 worldwide average in our parent model, and about USD 5,780 in 2026 as the delivered premium more than doubles.

The [USGS July 2026 survey](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-alumi.xlsx) shows the delivered U.S. market price at 178.187 cents a pound in 2025 against LME cash at 119.284 cents, a gap of 58.9 cents or about USD 1,299 a tonne. From January to July 2026 the gap widened to 108.7 cents, about USD 2,397 a tonne, and the delivered price peaked at 281.974 cents in May 2026 before easing to 251.652 cents in July. Douglas Insights adds about USD 150 a tonne of product premiums for billet, slab and wire rod over standard ingot.

The price leg from 2026 to 2035 is only 0.23% a year because two forces offset each other. LME prices rise about 2.6% a year in our base case, from about USD 3,350 a tonne in 2026 to about USD 4,450 in 2035, as power costs and carbon rules lift smelting costs worldwide. The premium falls from about USD 2,280 to about USD 1,300 as new domestic capacity and possible tariff deals ease scarcity. The 2035 average is about USD 5,900 a tonne, a Douglas Insights estimate.

## Which rules govern U.S. aluminum metal, from Section 232 tariffs to production tax credits?

Three layers govern U.S. aluminum metal: Section 232 tariffs raised to 50% on [4 June 2025](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/06/09/2025-10524/adjusting-imports-of-aluminum-and-steel-into-the-united-states) and restructured on 2 April 2026, production tax credits, and federal smelter support including the half-rate import programme of 20 July 2026.

The tariff layer moves most. The White House doubled the aluminum tariff from 25% to 50% effective 4 June 2025, leaving the United Kingdom at 25%, its [fact sheet of 3 June 2025](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/06/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-increases-section-232-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminum/) states. On 2 April 2026 a new proclamation set a flat 50% on the full value of articles made entirely or almost entirely of aluminum and 25% on substantially aluminum derivatives, with 10% on goods made abroad from U.S. aluminum and an exemption below 15% metal content, the [fact sheet of 2 April 2026](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strengthens-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-and-copper-imports/) shows. A further [fact sheet of 1 June 2026](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/06/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-updates-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-and-copper-imports/) cut agricultural equipment to 15% until 31 December 2027.

The support layer is newer. On 20 July 2026 the White House let companies that build, expand or refurbish U.S. smelters import a commensurate level of primary aluminum at half the Section 232 rate, its [fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-further-action-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-into-the-united-states/) states. Century's 45X advanced manufacturing production credit cut its cost of goods sold by USD 77.6 million in the nine months to 30 September 2026, its [Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000949157/000162828026071033/cenx-20260930.htm) shows. The Department of Energy said on 10 February 2026 that Century's USD 500 million award now supports the Oklahoma smelter, its [article](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awardee-build-first-american-aluminum-smelter-1980) states.

## What if the premium collapses or new smelters arrive early: how large is the U.S. aluminum metal market in 2035?

The U.S. aluminum metal market ends 2035 between USD 18.90 billion and USD 28.01 billion across three cases, around a USD 23.51 billion base. The delivered premium and tonne growth set most of the spread.

| Case | Tonne leg | Price leg | Revenue rate | 2035 value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Slower | 0.60% | -1.20% | -0.61% | USD 18.90 billion |
| Base case | 1.60% | 0.23% | 1.83% | USD 23.51 billion |
| Faster | 2.60% | 1.20% | 3.83% | USD 28.01 billion |

In the slower case Canada wins a tariff cut, the premium falls back toward its 2025 level of about USD 1,300 a tonne by 2028 and recycled metal takes more share, taking 1.00 point off tonnes and 1.43 points off price. In the faster case the premium stays near USD 2,000 because domestic capacity lags, grid spending accelerates and LME prices rise faster, adding 1.00 point to tonnes and 0.97 points to price. One extra point of yearly revenue growth adds about USD 2.15 billion to 2035 value, and one point less removes about USD 2.01 billion, Douglas Insights estimates.

Company signals bracket the base case. Century's realised U.S. price rose 45.8% in a year while its tonnes rose 8.2%, and the Aluminum Association reported North American domestic shipments down 3.6% in the first half of 2026 even as demand rose 3.5%, its [26 October 2026 release](https://www.aluminum.org/news/north-american-aluminum-demand-35-through-first-half-2026) shows. Our 1.83% rate assumes most of the 2026 premium is temporary.

## Douglas Exclusive: the Tariff Premium Pass-Through Ledger

The Tariff Premium Pass-Through Ledger is a Douglas Insights model built from 12 inputs: 7 government documents, 4 company filings and 1 industry association release. It splits the delivered premium into duty, other costs and the gain to domestic smelters.

| Date | Input | What it moves |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 3 June 2025 | White House: tariff to 50% from 4 June 2025 | Duty per tonne |
| 19 August 2025 | Commerce: 407 derivative categories added | Downstream demand |
| February 2026 | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 | Supply base |
| 26 January 2026 | EGA: 750,000-tonne Oklahoma smelter with Century | Future capacity |
| 10 February 2026 | Department of Energy: USD 500 million award for Oklahoma | Future capacity |
| Early 2026 | Alcoa 2025 Form 10-K: USD 571 million of tariff costs | Duty paid |
| 2 April 2026 | White House: flat-rate tariff structure | Duty per tonne |
| 20 July 2026 | White House: half-rate imports for smelter builders | Duty per tonne |
| September 2026 | USGS July survey: prices and imports | Premium; origin |
| 26 October 2026 | Aluminum Association: first-half 2026 demand up 3.5% | Tonnes |
| 5 November 2026 | Century third quarter 2026: USD 5,907 a tonne realised | Domestic margin |
| 5 November 2026 | Century third quarter 2025 comparison: USD 4,053 a tonne | Domestic margin |

The finding, a Douglas Insights estimate: of the USD 2,397 a tonne that buyers paid above the LME from January to July 2026, a 50% duty on an LME price of about USD 3,352 accounts for about USD 1,676, or 69.9%. The other USD 721, 30.1%, covers freight, financing, warehouse scarcity and margin. Domestic smelters, with about 0.68 million tonnes, collect the whole premium without paying duty, worth about USD 1.63 billion a year at the 2026 rate.

The ledger changes how to read 2027. EGA's release of [26 January 2026](https://media.ega.ae/century-aluminum-joins-ega-project-to-build-first-us-smelter-in-almost-50-years/) sets construction to start by the end of 2026 and production by the end of the decade, so no new primary tonnes arrive before 2029. Until then Douglas Insights expects the premium to stay above USD 1,800 a tonne unless Canadian metal gets a lower rate, and buyers with annual contracts gain at the expense of spot buyers.

## How does the methodology turn 3.40 million tonnes into USD 13.87 billion?

Our methodology multiplies about 3.40 million tonnes of primary and alloyed unwrought aluminum sold to U.S. fabricators by an average USD 4,080 a tonne to reach USD 13.87 billion in 2025, then grows tonnes 1.60% and price 0.23% a year from 2026.

The model covers 6 product forms, 5 end uses, 2 contract types and 4 regions, using 64 data points, 22 sourced and 42 modelled. Tonnes come from USGS domestic production of 664,000 tonnes and crude imports of 3.01 million tonnes, less exports and stock changes; prices come from the USGS delivered price series plus product premiums, all Douglas Insights estimates. Arithmetic: 3.40 million x USD 4,080 = USD 13.87 billion; 2026: 3.45 million x USD 5,780 = USD 19.97 billion; 2035: USD 19.97 billion x (1.0160 x 1.0023)^9 = USD 23.51 billion.

Two cross-checks agree. First, USD 13.87 billion is 66.1% of the USD 20.98 billion North America row of our worldwide model, more than the U.S. tonne share because the delivered premium lifts the U.S. price 47.8% above the parent's average; the 1.83% rate sits below that row's 3.80% because the 2026 premium is already in the base. Second, Century's realised U.S. prices of USD 4,053 a tonne in the third quarter of 2025 and USD 5,907 in 2026 sit within 1% and 2.2% of our USD 4,080 and USD 5,780 averages. AI tools help draft the text and automated checks test the arithmetic and links; the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as our [editorial standards](https://www.douglasinsights.com/research-methodology/) explain.

## What counts in the U.S. aluminum metal study, and what is excluded?

The study counts primary and alloyed unwrought aluminum sold to U.S. fabricators, valued at the delivered price including premiums. Scrap, secondary ingot made from scrap, alumina, and semi-finished sheet, plate, foil and extrusions are excluded.

The study splits value by 6 product forms, 5 end uses (transport, construction and solar, packaging, electrical, and machinery and other), 2 contract types and 4 regions: the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the Southeast, the Southwest and West, and the Northeast. Worldwide figures appear in our [Aluminum Metal Market](https://www.douglasinsights.com/aluminum-metal-market/) report.

## Market by segment

| Segment | Share | Value |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Extrusion billet | 34% | $4.72 Bn |
| Standard ingot | 22% | $3.05 Bn |
| Rolling slab | 20% | $2.77 Bn |
| Foundry alloy ingot | 13% | $1.80 Bn |
| Wire rod | 7% | $971.0 Mn |
| High-purity and other forms | 4% | $554.9 Mn |

## Market by region (USD million)

| Region | 2025 | 2026 | 2035 | CAGR 2026-2035 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Global | 13,872 | 19,966.4 | 23,513.8 | 1.83% |
| Great Lakes and Ohio Valley | 5,271.4 | 7,587.2 | 8,598.6 | 1.4% |
| Southeast | 4,161.6 | 5,989.9 | 7,415.2 | 2.4% |
| Southwest and West | 2,497 | 3,594 | 4,371.5 | 2.2% |
| Northeast | 1,942.1 | 2,795.3 | 3,003.1 | 0.8% |

## Dataset

| Series | Value | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Market size 2025 | 13,872 | USD million |
| Market size 2035 | 23,513.8 | USD million |
| Revenue CAGR 2026-2035 | 1.83 | percent |
| Volume CAGR 2026-2035 | 1.6 | percent |
| Price per tonne CAGR 2026-2035 | 0.23 | percent |

## Frequently asked questions

### How big is the U.S. aluminum metal market in 2025 and 2035?

USD 13.87 billion in 2025, from about 3.40 million tonnes at USD 4,080 a tonne, USD 19.97 billion in 2026 and USD 23.51 billion by 2035 at a 1.83% CAGR.

### Why did U.S. aluminum prices jump in 2026?

260.783 cents a pound was the delivered U.S. average from January to July 2026, against LME cash of 152.058 cents, as the 50% Section 232 tariff widened the premium to about USD 2,397 a tonne.

### Which U.S. aluminum metal product form is largest?

34.0% of 2025 value, about USD 4.72 billion, is extrusion billet; wire rod grows fastest at 3.4% a year.

### How much U.S. aluminum is imported?

60% of apparent consumption in 2025, USGS estimates; Canada shipped about 62% and the United Arab Emirates about 14% of crude imports from January to July 2026.

### Who leads U.S. aluminum metal supply?

About 25.0% sits with Rio Tinto, a Douglas Insights estimate, ahead of Alcoa at 19.0% and Century Aluminum at 11.1%; the top five hold about 70.1%.

### How much of the 2026 premium is tariff?

69.9%, about USD 1,676 of the USD 2,397 a tonne premium, is the 50% duty on an LME price near USD 3,352, by the Douglas Insights Tariff Premium Pass-Through Ledger.

### When will the Oklahoma smelter add capacity?

750,000 tonnes a year, owned 60% by EGA and 40% by Century, with construction from the end of 2026 and production by the end of the decade.

### How far apart are the slower and faster 2035 cases?

USD 18.90 billion in the slower case and USD 28.01 billion in the faster case, against a USD 23.51 billion base.

## Sources

- [US Geological Survey, Mineral Industry Surveys: Aluminum, July 2026](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-alumi.xlsx)
- [US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Aluminum](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-aluminum.pdf)
- [The White House, Fact Sheet: Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum increased to 50%](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/06/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-increases-section-232-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminum/)
- [Bureau of Industry and Security, Department of Commerce adds 407 product categories to steel and aluminum tariffs](https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-adds-407-product-categories-steel-aluminum-tariffs)
- [The White House, Fact Sheet: tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper imports strengthened](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strengthens-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-and-copper-imports/)
- [The White House, Fact Sheet: further action to adjust imports of aluminum](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-further-action-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-into-the-united-states/)
- [Century Aluminum / SEC, Century Aluminum third quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000949157/000162828026071024/a20260930q3ex991earningsre.htm)
- [Alcoa / SEC, Alcoa third quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001675149/000119312526422891/aa-ex99_1.htm)
- [Alcoa / SEC, Alcoa 2025 annual report on Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm)
- [Emirates Global Aluminium, Century Aluminum joins EGA project to build first US smelter in almost 50 years](https://media.ega.ae/century-aluminum-joins-ega-project-to-build-first-us-smelter-in-almost-50-years/)
- [The Aluminum Association, North American aluminum demand up 3.5% through first half of 2026](https://www.aluminum.org/news/north-american-aluminum-demand-35-through-first-half-2026)
- [Novelis, Novelis produces first coil at Bay Minette](https://investors.novelis.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1427/novelis-produces-first-coil-at-greenfield-aluminum-rolling-and-recycling-plant-in-alabama)

## How to cite

Douglas Insights, "U.S. Aluminum Metal Market", DI-CM-10853, updated 2026-11-06, https://www.douglasinsights.com/u-s-aluminum-metal-market/