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DI-FB-10053 Edition 2 Updated 200 pages, PDF and Excel

Coffee Market

At-home coffee sales reach USD 147.42 billion in 2025 and USD 224.35 billion by 2035 as cans, capsules and Asian drinkers grow.

By the . Next review Sep 2027. Editorial standards

Market size, 2025
$147.4B
Forecast, 2035
$224.4B
Revenue CAGR, 2026–2035
4.29%
Roast and ground at home share
36.3%

By format

Roast and ground at home, Instant and soluble at home, Ready-to-drink coffee, Capsules and pods

By bean

Arabica, Robusta

By channel

Supermarkets, E-commerce, Convenience stores

By region

Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, Africa

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18 chapters 37 tables 9 figures 6 company profiles 200 pages

  1. Executive summaryThe market in one view
  2. Scope and definitionsPackaged coffee at retail, at home
  3. Research methodologyBottom-up: million 60-kg bags (at home) × value per unit
  4. From ICE screen to shelfThe 2025 spike and its lag
  5. Volume driversFour drivers in points
  6. HeadwindsElasticity, climate and friction
  7. China and LuckinCups that recruit home drinkers
  8. Value per bagShelf economics by format

See all chapters and sections (10 more chapters)

Key findings

  • 131.86 million at-home 60-kg bags at USD 1,118.0 of retail value each make a USD 147.42 billion coffee market in 2025.
  • Sales reach USD 224.35 billion by 2035 at 4.29% a year, from 1.31% bag growth and 2.94% growth in value per bag.
  • Roast and ground at home leads with 36.3% of sales; ready-to-drink coffee grows fastest at 7.83% and overtakes it by 2035.
  • Asia Pacific grows 5.37% a year to USD 68.65 billion by 2035, close behind Europe.
  • Our pass-through index reads 1.18 when green coffee rises and −0.41 when it falls, so shelf prices stay high after the 2025 spike.
MeasureValueHow it is built
Market size, 2025 $147.4B 131.86 million at-home 60-kg bags × USD 1,118.0 retail value per bag = $147.4B.
Forecast, 2035 $224.4B 150.2 million bags × USD 1,493.8 per bag.
Revenue CAGR, 2026–2035 4.29%1.31% volume + 2.94% price (1.0131 × 1.0294) − 1.
Volume, 2035 150.2 million bags 131.86 million at-home bags growing 1.31% a year.
Leading segment Roast and ground at home, 36.3% $53.5B from 81.72 million bags at USD 654.5 each.
Fastest segment Ready-to-drink coffee, 7.83% $30.7B in 2025 to $65.2B by 2035.
Fastest region Asia Pacific, 5.37% $40.7B to $68.7B.
Market leader Nestlé, 20.6% Douglas Insights estimate; top three hold 36.9%.
Event 30 December 2026: EUDR applies to large and medium operators (Regulation (EU) 2025/2650) https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2025/2650/oj/eng

Every figure passes the desk's release checks before publication: segments add to the total, growth rates match their start and end values, and each cited source says what the report attributes to it. How the research is done

Market data

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Arabica futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York averaged 310.34 US cents per pound in July 2026, up 20.9% on June, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) July 2026 report shows, and US shelves still carry the 2025 spike. The coffee market covers packaged coffee bought by consumers for home use, valued at retail: roast and ground, whole bean, instant, single-serve capsules and pods, and ready-to-drink coffee. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 147.42 billion in 2025, built as 131.86 million 60-kg bags drunk at home, out of 173.5 million consumed per the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), × USD 1,118.0 of retail value per bag. Sales reach USD 224.35 billion in 2035, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.29%. Shelf prices lagged the exchange: the US average for ground roast coffee went from USD 6.311 a pound in August 2024 to USD 9.299 in August 2026 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics series via FRED). The next hard date is 30 December 2026, when Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 of 19 December 2025 makes the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) apply to large and medium operators. The study belongs to our beverages research and follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Café, office and vending cups sit outside this boundary; Douglas Insights estimates they add roughly USD 372 billion of consumer spend on the remaining 41.64 million bags.

How fast did the 2025 arabica spike travel from the ICE screen to coffee shelves?

Coffee shelf prices took about 6 months to follow green beans up, and have not followed them down. The composite indicator price hit a record 354.32 US cents per pound in February 2025, and the US ground roast average rose 40.6% between August 2024 and August 2025, per ICO and BLS data.

The February 2025 composite average beat the previous nominal high of 305.13 cents set in March 1977, and New York arabica averaged 388.18 cents that month, according to the ICO February 2025 market report. Green coffee then fell 24.5% to 267.57 cents by February 2026, per the ICO February 2026 report. Retail did not retreat. The consumer price index table for August 2026 still shows coffee up 6.1% on a year earlier, roasted coffee up 4.9% and instant coffee up 11.0%.

Supply is now loosening on paper. USDA expects a record 189.7 million bags of 2026/27 production, with Brazil at 71.9 million and Vietnam at 32.5 million, and notes coffee prices dropped 25% over seven months (USDA FAS, July 2026). Yet ICE-certified arabica stocks closed at 223,976 bags on 31 August 2026, the lowest since 1999, which is why the ICO August 2026 report still shows New York arabica at 313.20 cents.

Why are at-home coffee bags still rising 1.31% a year despite record prices?

At-home coffee volume grows 1.31% a year to 150.2 million bags by 2035 because new drinkers in Asia and producing countries outweigh price-led trimming in mature markets. USDA puts 2026/27 world consumption at a record 179.7 million bags, up from 173.5 million in 2025/26, per its July 2026 circular.

Asia Pacific adoption contributes 0.58 points. China drank 5.893 million bags in 2024/25 and USDA forecasts 6.75 million for 2026/27, a 14.5% rise in two years, while the Philippines reaches 6.725 million and Japan 6.9 million on the same USDA country table. Instant sachets, ready-to-drink cans and capsules carry most of that growth into homes. Nestlé named Nescafé and coffee enhancers as key growth contributors in its 2025 results, with beverages posting high single-digit growth on strong pricing and positive real internal growth.

Producing-country drinking adds 0.36 points. Brazil already consumes 22.28 million bags, Ethiopia moves from 4.0 million in 2024/25 to 5.0 million in 2026/27 and Vietnam from 4.8 million to 5.0 million, per USDA FAS. Those households buy cheap roast and ground or instant, so their volume weight exceeds their value weight in the 2035 sales path.

Middle East and Africa supermarket expansion supplies 0.17 points, as modern retail puts branded jars and capsules in front of first-time buyers. A further 0.20 points comes from cold coffee and home espresso in North America and Europe, where USDA expects the EU to reach 42.5 million bags and the United States 26.95 million in 2026/27; café habits built around machines in the Commercial Specialty Coffee Equipment Market report spill into home brewing.

Together the four drivers give 1.31 points, the volume leg used in every forecast table; each 0.1 point of it equals about 0.13 million extra bags in 2026 alone. Before the restraints in the next section the gross rate would run at 1.92%. Douglas Insights models each driver in bags, not dollars, so a sachet in Manila and a capsule in Zurich weigh the same in the leg. Over ten years the at-home bag count adds 18.3 million bags, more than the 13.1 million bags Japan and China drank in 2025/26 combined, at home and away. Caffeine sold as an ingredient, covered in the Anhydrous Caffeine Market study, is excluded from the bag count.

Which headwinds take 0.61 points off coffee volume growth?

Three coffee headwinds remove 0.61 points from a gross 1.92% at-home bag growth rate: price elasticity in mature markets, climate-driven supply shocks and traceability or tariff friction. Lavazza reported that market volumes fell about 2.4% in 2025 as prices rose, in its full-year 2025 release.

Elasticity takes 0.29 points. Keurig Dr Pepper’s US Coffee segment saw volume and mix fall 8.2% in the first quarter of 2026 against 5.9% net price realisation, so sales slipped 2.3% to USD 857 million (KDP first-quarter 2026 release). JDE Peet’s volume and mix fell 4.3% in 2025 while price added 19.5% (JDE Peet’s 2025 results).

Climate and supply shocks take 0.19 points: the Lavazza release notes arabica rose 230% and robusta 325% between January 2021 and early 2025, and each spike cuts the cheapest jars first. Traceability and trade friction take the last 0.13 points, from EUDR geolocation duties and tariff swings that briefly put an extra 40% duty on Brazilian coffee in the United States.

Which coffee format makes the money at home: the bag, the jar, the capsule or the can?

Roast and ground at home earns 36.3% of at-home coffee sales, USD 53.51 billion in 2025, from 81.72 million bags, the largest volume of any format. Douglas Insights estimates ready-to-drink coffee overtakes it by 2035 at USD 65.17 billion.

Coffee format Share of 2025 sales 2025 value Growth 2026-2035 2035 value
Roast and ground at home 36.3% USD 53.51 billion 1.58% USD 62.60 billion
Instant and soluble at home 24.4% USD 35.97 billion 3.46% USD 50.54 billion
Ready-to-drink coffee 20.8% USD 30.66 billion 7.83% USD 65.17 billion
Capsules and pods 18.5% USD 27.27 billion 5.37% USD 46.01 billion

Roast and ground, whole bean included, leads on volume but a bag sells for only USD 654.5 through supermarkets and e-commerce, and it grows just 1.58%. Instant and soluble at home earns USD 35.97 billion from 39.21 million bags; 3-in-1 sachets in Asia keep its value per bag at USD 918.5.

Capsules and pods turn 8.15 million bags into USD 27.27 billion, roughly 55.5 billion capsules at USD 0.49 each. Ready-to-drink coffee is the fastest-growing format at 7.83% a year because chilled cans and bottles fit convenience stores and e-commerce baskets, and a bag of soluble solids yields USD 11,057.7 of cans; plant milks profiled in the Plant-Based Dairy Alternatives Market report ride the same cold-coffee trend.

Where is at-home coffee spend growing fastest outside Europe?

Asia Pacific grows at-home coffee sales fastest, at 5.37% a year from USD 40.69 billion in 2025 to USD 68.65 billion in 2035, on instant, cans and capsules. Europe leads in 2025 with USD 50.56 billion, 34.3% of the global total.

Europe grows 3.49% a year to USD 71.26 billion, since per-head drinking is already high and roast and ground dominates. North America holds USD 35.68 billion and grows 3.88%, lifted by pods and cold brew. Asia Pacific holds 27.6% today and nearly matches Europe by 2035.

Latin America sells USD 10.76 billion and grows 4.33%, with Brazil’s 22.28 million bags making it the largest producing-country consumer. The Middle East reaches USD 9.48 billion by 2035 from USD 5.75 billion, a 5.13% rate. Africa is the wildcard: only USD 3.98 billion in 2025, yet Ethiopian consumption gains push it to USD 6.31 billion at 4.72% a year.

What does Luckin’s 31,048-store network change for Chinese coffee drinking?

Luckin’s revenue rose 43.0% in 2025 to RMB 49.29 billion, about USD 7.03 billion, from 31,048 stores and 94.2 million average monthly transacting customers, per its fourth-quarter 2025 filing. Among the ten countries in the USDA table, only Ethiopia adds bags faster than China.

Luckin’s cups sit outside the at-home boundary, but the chain recruits the drinkers who later buy instant, cans and capsules. Average revenue per store is about USD 226,600 a year, a pick-up kiosk with low cup prices. Douglas Insights counts China at 6.42 million bags in 2025/26, per USDA, rising toward 6.75 million.

Coffee in China therefore lifts volume more than value. The Asia Pacific rate of 5.37% already carries that dilution.

Which roasters and coffee companies hold the biggest slice of at-home sales?

Nestlé holds a 20.6% share of 2025 at-home coffee sales by Douglas Insights estimate, ahead of the combined Keurig Dr Pepper and JDE Peet’s at 12.7% and Lavazza at 3.6%. The top three therefore hold 36.9%.

Nestlé’s position rests on Nescafé in instant, Nespresso in capsules and the Starbucks at-home licence; Nespresso alone sold CHF 6.48 billion in 2025, with 6.0% organic growth, 4.4% pricing and 1.6% real internal growth (Nestlé full-year 2025 results). Starbucks, which reported USD 37.2 billion of fiscal 2025 revenue from 40,990 cafés (Starbucks fiscal 2025 results), reaches homes mainly through that Nestlé licence.

Keurig Dr Pepper completed its acquisition of JDE Peet’s on 1 April 2026, buying 97.75% of the shares for about USD 17.9 billion, and JDE Peet’s added USD 3.15 billion of second-quarter net sales, per its second-quarter 2026 10-Q. The company still plans to separate its coffee and beverage businesses, as announced on 25 August 2025.

Lavazza reported EUR 3.9 billion of revenue, up 15.7%, in its 2025 results, built on Italian espresso blends and capsules. Luckin sells mostly cups, so its at-home share is small. Private-label roasters and national instant brands share the remaining 63.1%.

Company Built on Douglas Insights share estimate
Nestlé Nescafé, Nespresso, Starbucks at-home licence 20.6%
Keurig Dr Pepper with JDE Peet’s K-Cup pods, Jacobs, L’OR, Peet’s 12.7%
Lavazza Italian espresso blends, capsules 3.6%

How much does one 60-kg bag of coffee earn on the shelf by format?

A 60-kg coffee bag earns USD 654.5 as supermarket roast and ground but USD 3,338.6 as capsules, a 5.1-fold spread. The blended 2025 retail figure is USD 1,118.0 per bag, rising 2.94% a year to USD 1,493.8 by 2035.

The conversions follow the ICO conversion factors: roasted coffee × 1.19 and soluble × 2.6 give green-bean equivalent. A bag therefore yields 50.42 kg of roasted coffee or 23.08 kg of soluble powder. At-home roast and ground is priced at USD 12.98 per kg, 72% of the 2025 US average of USD 8.18 a pound from the BLS average price series.

Instant sells for USD 39.8 per kg of powder, so a bag earns USD 918.5. Capsules hold 7.4 g of coffee at USD 0.49 each. Ready-to-drink cans carry about 2.4 g of soluble solids at USD 1.15 a serve.

The price leg splits into 1.31 points of mix shift toward capsules and cans and 1.96 points of shelf inflation, less 0.33 points as green coffee normalises.

Which EUDR and tariff rules change what coffee costs to import?

Two coffee rules matter most: EUDR due diligence from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators, and the US exemption that lifted a 40% duty on Brazilian coffee from 13 November 2025. Douglas Insights expects both to add 0.13 points of volume drag.

Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 postponed the deforestation rules by a year and set 30 June 2027 for micro and small operators. Importers must still geolocate every plot behind arabica and robusta lots placed on the EU market, which absorbs 41.57 million bags a year on USDA data.

In the United States, Executive Order 14361, signed on 20 November 2025, removed the extra 40% duty on Brazilian goods listed in its Annex I, which names green and roasted coffee and coffee extracts. The rollback was retroactive to 13 November 2025. Our base case assumes no new coffee tariff before 2035.

What if arabica holds above 300 cents and coffee bag growth slips toward 2035?

A slower case of 0.72% bag growth and 1.21% price growth puts 2035 at-home coffee sales at USD 178.63 billion, a 1.94% annual rate. The base case reaches USD 224.35 billion, and a faster case reaches USD 242.41 billion at 5.10%.

The slower case assumes the ICE certified-stock squeeze of 31 August 2026 repeats, keeping arabica above 300 cents and trimming jars and bags in Europe and North America. The faster case assumes the record 2026/27 crop of 189.7 million bags reported by USDA lowers green prices while brands hold shelf prices, funding capsule and can launches.

A single extra point of bag growth adds USD 23.2 billion to the 2035 total. EUDR timing, dated 30 December 2026, sits in all three cases. The base rate of 4.29% sits inside published forecasts, which run from about 3.0% for at-home sales to 5.4% a year for wider definitions.

Douglas Exclusive: the bean-to-cup price pass-through index

The bean-to-cup price pass-through index is a Douglas Insights model built from 9 price series and 58 data points. Its inputs are the ICO composite, New York arabica and London robusta monthly averages, 31 monthly BLS ground roast prices, three consumer price lines and two company price disclosures.

The coffee index measures how many cents of shelf price move for each cent of green-coffee cost per roasted pound, with a six-month lag. Green cost per roasted pound is the composite price × 1.19. On the way up, green cost rose USD 1.373 between August 2024 and February 2025, and the shelf rose USD 1.626 over the following six months: an index of 1.18.

On the way down, green cost fell USD 1.032 from February 2025 to February 2026, yet the shelf rose another USD 0.427 by August 2026: an index of −0.41. Rises pass through in full; falls do not. Green coffee’s share of the US shelf price slid from 45.1% to 36.8% over the two years, by our model.

Our reading for coffee buyers: retail value per bag holds even if green prices drop, which is why the price leg stays at 2.94% despite the 25% fall USDA reported.

What receipts sit behind the coffee bag-times-price model?

The coffee model multiplies 131.86 million at-home bags by USD 1,118.0 per bag to reach USD 147.42 billion, using 4 format prices, 6 regional rows and 10 country consumption lines from USDA. Two cross-checks agree within 8%.

Douglas Insights tallies bags from the USDA country table, 10 named countries plus the rest, and checks the 173.5 million total against the ICO estimate of 175.071 million bags for 2024/25 from the ICO February 2026 report: the two differ by 0.9%. At-home use is 76.0% of bags; the other 24.0% goes to cafés, offices and vending.

The previous edition put packaged coffee at USD 136.78 billion at manufacturer value; our retail figure sits 7.8% above it, a gap that matches a thin retail margin on a cost-led year. Nespresso’s CHF 6.48 billion equals 28.5% of capsule sales, which fits its brand weight. Every figure was computed in Python, and the 2026 path starts from 133.59 million bags at USD 1,150.9 each.

How this report is built

  • Every figure carries a confidence grade in the fact sheet above, and the working model ships with every licence.
  • Six regional models sum to the global figure, with country tables in the Excel model.
  • The next scheduled review of this study is September 2027.
  • Licence holders receive it as a maintained tab in the Excel model.

Sources

  1. International Coffee Organization Coffee Market Report, July 2026 (2026)
  2. International Coffee Organization Coffee Market Report, August 2026 (2026)
  3. International Coffee Organization Coffee Market Report, February 2025 (2025)
  4. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Coffee: World Markets and Trade, July 2026 (2026)
  5. US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED Average price: coffee, 100% ground roast, per lb (APU0000717311) (2026)
  6. US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U detailed expenditure categories, August 2026 (2026)
  7. Official Journal of the European Union Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 of 19 December 2025 amending Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 (2025)
  8. Federal Register Executive Order 14361, Modifying the Scope of Tariffs on the Government of Brazil (2025)
  9. US SEC EDGAR Keurig Dr Pepper Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 (2026)
  10. JDE Peet's JDE Peet's full-year results 2025 (2026)
  11. US SEC EDGAR Luckin Coffee fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results (6-K) (2026)
  12. Nestlé Nestlé full-year 2025 results (2026)
  13. Starbucks Starbucks Q4 and full fiscal year 2025 results (2025)
  14. Lavazza Group Lavazza Group FY2025 financial results (2026)
  15. International Coffee Organization Conversion factors for roasted, soluble and liquid coffee (2007)

Inside the 200-page report

18 chapters 153 sections 37 tables, 9 figures 6 company profiles 200 pages Every table ships in the Excel model
01Executive summary12 sections

The market in one view

  1. 1.1Market snapshot, 2025 and 2035
    1. 1.1.1Market size, 2025
    2. 1.1.2Forecast, 2035
    3. 1.1.3Growth rate, 2026–2035
  2. 1.2Growth decomposition
    1. 1.2.1Volume growth (million 60-kg bags (at home))
    2. 1.2.2Value per unit growth
  3. 1.3Key findings
  4. 1.4Segment highlights
  5. 1.5Regional highlights
  6. 1.6Competitive highlights
  7. 1.7Douglas Insights verdict
02Scope and definitions17 sections

Packaged coffee at retail, at home

  1. 2.1Market definition
  2. 2.2Inclusions and exclusions
    1. 2.2.1Four formats
    2. 2.2.2Bag conversions
    3. 2.2.3Out-of-home exclusion
  3. 2.3Segmentation
    1. 2.3.1By format
    2. 2.3.2By bean
    3. 2.3.3By channel
    4. 2.3.4By region
  4. 2.4Years considered
    1. 2.4.1Base year 2025
    2. 2.4.2Forecast 2026–2035
  5. 2.5Currency and units
    1. 2.5.1Value in USD million
    2. 2.5.2Volume in million 60-kg bags (at home)
  6. 2.6Who this report is for
03Research methodology16 sections

Bottom-up: million 60-kg bags (at home) × value per unit

  1. 3.1Bottom-up market model
    1. 3.1.1Volume base, 2025 (million 60-kg bags (at home))
    2. 3.1.2Value per unit
    3. 3.1.3Forecast legs to 2035
  2. 3.2Top-down cross-checks
  3. 3.3Data triangulation
  4. 3.4Sources
    1. 3.4.1Regulators and statistics offices
    2. 3.4.2Company filings and results
    3. 3.4.3Trade and industry bodies
    4. 3.4.415 primary sources cited
  5. 3.5Confidence grading
  6. 3.6Assumptions and limitations
    1. 3.6.1Bag build
    2. 3.6.2Price build
    3. 3.6.3Cross-checks
04From ICE screen to shelf3 sections

The 2025 spike and its lag

  1. 4.1Record composite price
  2. 4.2US shelf prices
  3. 4.3Certified stocks
05Volume drivers4 sections

Four drivers in points

  1. 5.1Asia Pacific adoption
  2. 5.2Producing countries
  3. 5.3Middle East and Africa retail
  4. 5.4Cold coffee
06Headwinds3 sections

Elasticity, climate and friction

  1. 6.1Price elasticity
  2. 6.2Supply shocks
  3. 6.3Traceability and tariffs
07China and Luckin3 sections

Cups that recruit home drinkers

  1. 7.1Store economics
  2. 7.2Bag count
  3. 7.3Value dilution
08Value per bag3 sections

Shelf economics by format

  1. 8.1Conversion factors
  2. 8.2Format prices
  3. 8.3Price leg
09EUDR and tariffs3 sections

Rules on sourcing cost

  1. 9.1Regulation (EU) 2025/2650
  2. 9.2Executive Order 14361
  3. 9.3Base-case assumptions
10Market size and forecast, 2025–20355 sections

Global value, volume and value per unit

  1. 10.1Market value, 2025–2035
  2. 10.2Volume (million 60-kg bags (at home)), 2025–2035
  3. 10.3Value per unit, 2025–2035
  4. 10.4Year-on-year growth
  5. 10.5Growth decomposition
11Coffee market, by format13 sections

4 segments, value 2025–2035

  1. 11.1Overview and share, 2025 and 2035
  2. 11.2Roast and ground at home
    1. 11.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 11.2.2Growth outlook
  3. 11.3Instant and soluble at home
    1. 11.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 11.3.2Growth outlook
  4. 11.4Ready-to-drink coffee
    1. 11.4.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 11.4.2Growth outlook
  5. 11.5Capsules and pods
    1. 11.5.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 11.5.2Growth outlook
12Coffee market, by bean7 sections

2 segments, value 2025–2035

  1. 12.1Overview and share, 2025 and 2035
  2. 12.2Arabica
    1. 12.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 12.2.2Growth outlook
  3. 12.3Robusta
    1. 12.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 12.3.2Growth outlook
13Coffee market, by channel10 sections

3 segments, value 2025–2035

  1. 13.1Overview and share, 2025 and 2035
  2. 13.2Supermarkets
    1. 13.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 13.2.2Growth outlook
  3. 13.3E-commerce
    1. 13.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 13.3.2Growth outlook
  4. 13.4Convenience stores
    1. 13.4.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 13.4.2Growth outlook
14Regional analysis31 sections

6 regions

  1. 14.1Regional overview and share, 2025 and 2035
  2. 14.2Europe
    1. 14.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 14.2.2By format
    3. 14.2.3By bean
    4. 14.2.4By channel
  3. 14.3North America
    1. 14.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 14.3.2By format
    3. 14.3.3By bean
    4. 14.3.4By channel
  4. 14.4Asia Pacific
    1. 14.4.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 14.4.2By format
    3. 14.4.3By bean
    4. 14.4.4By channel
  5. 14.5Latin America
    1. 14.5.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 14.5.2By format
    3. 14.5.3By bean
    4. 14.5.4By channel
  6. 14.6Middle East
    1. 14.6.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 14.6.2By format
    3. 14.6.3By bean
    4. 14.6.4By channel
  7. 14.7Africa
    1. 14.7.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
    2. 14.7.2By format
    3. 14.7.3By bean
    4. 14.7.4By channel
15Competitive landscape10 sections

6 companies profiled

  1. 15.1Market concentration
  2. 15.2Market share analysis, 2025
  3. 15.3Strategic moves: acquisitions, launches, contracts
  4. 15.4Company profilesEach profile: overview, products, financials where reported, position in this market, recent developments
    1. 15.4.1Nestlé
    2. 15.4.2Keurig Dr Pepper
    3. 15.4.3JDE Peet's
    4. 15.4.4Lavazza
    5. 15.4.5Starbucks
    6. 15.4.6Luckin
16Scenarios to 20355 sections

Slower, base and faster paths

  1. 16.1Slower case
  2. 16.2Base case case
  3. 16.3Faster case
  4. 16.4Sensitivity of the 2035 value
  5. 16.5Published forecasts compared
17Douglas Exclusive: the bean-to-cup price pass-through index3 sections

Shelf cents per green cent

  1. 17.1Up-leg
  2. 17.2Down-leg
  3. 17.3Green share of shelf
18Appendix5 sections

Data, sources and licence

  1. 18.1Data tables (Excel model)
  2. 18.2Sources (15)
  3. 18.3Abbreviations
  4. 18.4Change log and next review
  5. 18.5Licence and how to cite
TList of tables37
  1. Table 1Market value, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  2. Table 2Volume, 2025–2035 (million 60-kg bags (at home))
  3. Table 3Value per unit, 2025–2035
  4. Table 4Coffee market by format, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  5. Table 5Roast and ground at home: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  6. Table 6Instant and soluble at home: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  7. Table 7Ready-to-drink coffee: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  8. Table 8Capsules and pods: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  9. Table 9Coffee market by bean, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  10. Table 10Arabica: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  11. Table 11Robusta: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  12. Table 12Coffee market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  13. Table 13Supermarkets: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  14. Table 14E-commerce: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  15. Table 15Convenience stores: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  16. Table 16Coffee market by region, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  17. Table 17Europe: market by format, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  18. Table 18Europe: market by bean, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  19. Table 19Europe: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  20. Table 20North America: market by format, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  21. Table 21North America: market by bean, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  22. Table 22North America: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  23. Table 23Asia Pacific: market by format, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  24. Table 24Asia Pacific: market by bean, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  25. Table 25Asia Pacific: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  26. Table 26Latin America: market by format, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  27. Table 27Latin America: market by bean, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  28. Table 28Latin America: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  29. Table 29Middle East: market by format, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  30. Table 30Middle East: market by bean, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  31. Table 31Middle East: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  32. Table 32Africa: market by format, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  33. Table 33Africa: market by bean, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  34. Table 34Africa: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
  35. Table 35Company market shares, 2025
  36. Table 36Scenario values, 2035
  37. Table 37Sources and confidence grades by figure
FList of figures9
  1. Figure 1Market value, 2025–2035
  2. Figure 2Growth decomposition, 2026–2035
  3. Figure 3Share by format, 2025 and 2035
  4. Figure 4Share by bean, 2025 and 2035
  5. Figure 5Share by channel, 2025 and 2035
  6. Figure 6Share by region, 2025 and 2035
  7. Figure 7Growth by region, 2026–2035
  8. Figure 8Market concentration, 2025
  9. Figure 9Scenario paths to 2035

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Questions buyers ask

What is a 60-kg bag of coffee worth on supermarket shelves?

USD 654.5 as roast and ground, USD 918.5 as instant and USD 3,338.6 as capsules; the 2025 blended retail figure is USD 1,118.0 per bag.

What do households spend on packaged coffee worldwide each year?

USD 147.42 billion in 2025, Douglas Insights estimates: 131.86 million at-home bags × USD 1,118.0 per bag, valued at retail.

Where will at-home coffee sales stand in 2035?

USD 224.35 billion in the base case, a 4.29% annual rate built from 1.31% bag growth and 2.94% growth in retail value per bag.

Why did US coffee shelf prices keep rising after green coffee fell?

36.8% is all green coffee now represents of the US ground roast shelf price, down from 45.1% two years earlier; our pass-through index reads 1.18 for rises and −0.41 for falls.

Will ready-to-drink cans overtake ground coffee?

USD 65.17 billion for ready-to-drink coffee by 2035 against USD 62.60 billion for roast and ground at home: cans grow 7.83% a year versus 1.58%.

Does Asia catch Europe in at-home coffee sales?

USD 68.65 billion for Asia Pacific by 2035 against USD 71.26 billion for Europe: Asia Pacific grows 5.37% a year versus Europe's 3.49%.

When does the EU deforestation rule start applying to coffee importers?

30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for micro and small operators, under Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 of 19 December 2025.

Who sells the most packaged coffee?

20.6% of at-home sales sits with Nestlé by Douglas Insights estimate, ahead of Keurig Dr Pepper with JDE Peet's at 12.7% and Lavazza at 3.6%.

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Research & citation

This report was researched, written and reviewed by the Douglas Insights Research Desk under the Douglas Insights editorial standards. Material errors are logged in the corrections log. No section is sponsored.

Cite this report Douglas Insights Inc (2026). Coffee Market. Report DI-FB-10053, September 2026. https://www.douglasinsights.com/coffee-market/

Data for this market

Production cost analysis by countryProduction cost. The direct cash cost of making a tonne: raw materials, utilities, packaging and labour priced in six countries, every input with its source and year. PDF and Excel in 48 hours. Manufacturing plant cost and setup reportsPlant Economics. Manufacturing plant project reports: what a plant costs to build, run and return, with capex, unit cost and IRR across six regions and an Excel model.