Combined Cycle Heat Recovery Steam Generator Market

A heat recovery steam generator exists to catch the energy a gas turbine would otherwise throw away, and it lifts plant efficiency from roughly 40% to nearly 60%. Douglas Insights values the combined cycle heat recovery steam generator market at USD 4.81 billion in 2025 and expects USD 10.7 billion by 2035, compounding at 8.36%. The estimate is built from the bottom up: roughly 185 heat recovery steam generators delivered in 2025 for combined cycle power plants and large cogeneration, across horizontal drum units for large combined cycle plants, once through and fast cycling designs, industrial cogeneration units, and retrofits, upgrades and supplementary firing, at an average realised value of USD 26 million per unit, triangulated against gas turbine orders, power plant construction and supplier disclosures. Units delivered grow 5.2% a year as gas fired generation is built to meet surging electricity demand, while value per unit rises 3.0% a year as larger turbines and fast cycling requirements raise content. Gas turbines are covered in our turbine retrofit coverage and small industrial waste heat boilers in our industrial boilers coverage; both are excluded here. This study sits within our thermal power equipment and services coverage and follows the published Douglas Insights methodology.

Why has combined cycle gas power come back, and what does it mean for heat recovery steam generators?

About 185 combined cycle heat recovery steam generators were delivered in 2025, rising 5.2% a year to roughly 307 by 2035, because electricity demand is rising again and few sources supply firm power at scale.

The clearest dated signal came on 28 January 2026, when GE Vernova reported that its Gas Power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements grew from 62 to 83 GW during 2025, with backlog up from 33 to 40 GW and reservations from 29 to 43 GW, in its fourth-quarter 2025 results filed with the SEC. In the fourth quarter alone it booked 41 heavy-duty gas turbines. Each heavy-duty unit sold for combined cycle duty needs a heat recovery steam generator, so that 83 GW queue sets the delivery pace for this market through the late 2020s.

Electricity demand, which was flat for years in many developed countries, has started rising sharply, and combined cycle gas plants are among the few sources that can be built at scale to supply firm power around the clock. Data centres for artificial intelligence and cloud computing, electrification of transport and heating, and new manufacturing have driven the fastest growth in electricity demand in decades in the United States and elsewhere. Utilities and developers have responded by ordering new gas turbines on a scale not seen for many years, to the point where the major turbine manufacturers report backlogs stretching several years ahead. A combined cycle plant pairs a gas turbine with a heat recovery steam generator, which captures the hot exhaust from the turbine to make steam that drives a steam turbine, raising efficiency far above a gas turbine alone. Every combined cycle turbine ordered therefore needs a heat recovery steam generator, which makes this market a direct beneficiary of the gas power revival, though with lead times that follow turbine deliveries. The exclusive chapter of this report maps turbine orders to generator demand by region, since turbine backlogs set the pace.

What is a combined cycle heat recovery steam generator, and which units are counted?

A combined cycle heat recovery steam generator is the boiler that captures gas turbine exhaust to raise steam for a steam turbine; this study counts the roughly 185 units delivered in 2025 for combined cycle power plants and large cogeneration facilities, worth USD 4.81 billion at an average USD 26 million each.

Horizontal drum units for large combined cycle cover the conventional heat recovery steam generators paired with large heavy duty gas turbines in utility power plants, the largest category. Once through and fast cycling designs cover units designed for frequent starts and rapid load changes, including once through steam generators without drums. Industrial cogeneration units cover heat recovery steam generators paired with smaller gas turbines to supply both power and process steam at industrial sites. Retrofits, upgrades and supplementary firing cover modifications to existing units, including duct burners for supplementary firing, emissions control and life extension. Gas turbines and steam turbines themselves, small industrial waste heat boilers, simple cycle plants without heat recovery, and power plant construction beyond the steam generator sit outside the boundary. Value is measured at the price plant owners and contractors pay.

Why must modern combined cycle heat recovery steam generators start and stop so often?

Heat recovery steam generators must cycle often because combined cycle plants increasingly run to balance wind and solar rather than steadily all day; once through and fast cycling designs built for that duty already hold 16% of 2025 value, USD 769.6 million, and are the fastest growing category.

Frequent starts and load changes stress older heat recovery steam generators in ways they were not originally designed for. Early combined cycle plants were built to run continuously at high output, and their steam generators were designed for steady operation. As wind and solar have grown, gas plants in many grids start and stop daily, or ramp up and down quickly to fill gaps when renewable output falls. Each start heats thick metal components rapidly, and repeated thermal cycling causes fatigue cracking in drums, headers and tubes, raising maintenance costs and failure risk. Newer designs address this with thinner walled components, once through configurations without heavy drums, and advanced materials and monitoring that tolerate cycling. Owners of existing plants retrofit components to extend life under cycling duty. This shift raises the engineering content and value of new units and supports a retrofit market, which is part of why value per unit rises over the forecast.

What drives demand for heat recovery steam generators, from data centres to coal replacement?

Combined cycle heat recovery steam generator revenue grows 8.36% a year, from USD 4.81 billion in 2025 to USD 10.7 billion in 2035. Four drivers lift units from about 185 to roughly 307, 5.2% a year, while larger turbines and fast cycling add 3.0% a year to value per unit.

The first driver is electricity demand growth. Data centres, electrification and industrial growth are driving new gas fired generation, especially in the United States and the Middle East. GE Vernova’s 41 heavy-duty turbine orders in the fourth quarter of 2025 show the scale of this driver; data-centre load itself is sized in our Data Center as a Bottleneck Market report. North America is the clearest case: it holds 30% of 2025 heat recovery steam generator value, USD 1.44 billion, and grows fastest of any region at 9.97% a year, enough to reach USD 3.73 billion by 2035. The Middle East, at USD 962.0 million in 2025, grows 8.4% a year on large power and cogeneration projects.

The second driver is coal plant replacement. Countries retiring coal plants often replace them with combined cycle gas plants, which emit far less carbon dioxide per unit of electricity. This driver weighs most in Asia Pacific, the largest region at 32% of 2025 value, USD 1.54 billion, where gas plant construction in China, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and Australia grows heat recovery steam generator spending 7.8% a year.

The third driver is grid reliability. Grids with high shares of wind and solar need flexible, dispatchable capacity, and combined cycle plants provide it only if their steam generators tolerate daily starts. Once through and fast cycling designs, worth USD 769.6 million or 16% of 2025 value, are the fastest growing category for this reason, and retrofits, upgrades and supplementary firing add another USD 769.6 million from an installed fleet carrying cycling damage.

The fourth driver is efficiency and cogeneration. Adding a heat recovery steam generator lifts plant efficiency from roughly 40% to nearly 60%, and industrial users and district heating systems use combined heat and power to improve efficiency and reduce energy costs. Industrial cogeneration units account for 18% of 2025 value, USD 865.8 million.

What holds back heat recovery steam generator orders when gas turbine backlogs stretch for years?

Combined cycle heat recovery steam generator revenue could stop near USD 7.11 billion in 2035, USD 3.6 billion below the base case, if turbine supply, decarbonisation policy and gas prices bite together and unit growth slows to 2.2% a year.

Three restraints are modelled. Turbine supply constraints are the first: gas turbine manufacturing capacity is limited and backlogs stretch several years, which paces heat recovery steam generator deliveries regardless of demand. GE Vernova shipped 3 GW of gas equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025 while signing 24 GW of new contracts, its 28 January 2026 release shows, so the queue lengthened rather than cleared. Decarbonisation policy is second: long term climate targets make some investors and governments cautious about new gas plants that could operate for decades, and some regions discourage new gas generation. Gas price and supply risk is third: volatile natural gas prices and supply security concerns affect the economics of gas fired generation.

Which heat recovery steam generator segment carries the value, horizontal drum units at 50% or fast cycling designs at 16%?

Horizontal drum units for large combined cycle lead the combined cycle heat recovery steam generator market with 50% of 2025 value, USD 2.41 billion, because they are the core of utility combined cycle plants.

Industrial cogeneration units hold 18%, USD 865.8 million. Once through and fast cycling designs account for 16%, USD 769.6 million, and grow fastest as plants must support variable renewables. Retrofits, upgrades and supplementary firing contribute 16%, USD 769.6 million, supported by the large installed fleet and cycling damage. Each category is modelled through 2035 by region.

Drum units and industrial cogeneration together account for 68% of 2025 value, USD 3.27 billion; the two flexibility-linked categories, fast cycling designs and retrofits, make up the other 32%, USD 1.54 billion, and that share rises as cycling duty spreads.

Where are combined cycle heat recovery steam generators bought, and which region grows fastest?

Asia Pacific holds 32% of 2025 combined cycle heat recovery steam generator value, USD 1.54 billion, growing 7.8% a year, driven by gas plant construction in China, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and Australia, often replacing coal.

North America holds 30%, USD 1.44 billion, and grows fastest at 9.97%, driven by surging electricity demand from data centres and a large wave of new gas turbine orders. The Middle East holds 20%, USD 962.0 million, at 8.4%, with large power and cogeneration projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere. Europe holds 10%, USD 481.0 million, at 5.2%, where new gas capacity is limited and retrofits dominate. Latin America contributes USD 240.5 million at 7.0% and Africa USD 144.3 million at 8.0%. Six regional models sum to the global figure, with country tables in the Excel model.

On these growth rates the regional order changes. North America reaches USD 3.73 billion by 2035 and overtakes Asia Pacific, at USD 3.26 billion, as the largest region for heat recovery steam generators, while the Middle East more than doubles to USD 2.16 billion. Europe grows slowest, from USD 481.0 million to USD 798.5 million, because its market leans on retrofits rather than new plants.

Which suppliers dominate combined cycle heat recovery steam generators as turbine queues lengthen?

About 185 combined cycle heat recovery steam generators a year, at about USD 26 million each, come from specialist manufacturers and the power divisions of larger engineering groups. No supplier discloses HRSG revenue separately, so Douglas Insights publishes no leader share for this market.

NEM Energy, Nooter/Eriksen, John Cockerill and Doosan Enerbility are leading suppliers, and Siemens Energy, GE Vernova and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries supply heat recovery steam generators alongside their gas turbines in some projects. Harbin Electric, Hangzhou Boiler Group and other Chinese manufacturers supply large volumes domestically and abroad, and Thermax and BHEL serve India and other markets. Engineering, procurement and construction contractors integrate heat recovery steam generators into plants. The competitive chapter profiles each manufacturer’s designs, capacity, cycling capability and regional presence.

How much does a combined cycle heat recovery steam generator cost per unit?

A combined cycle heat recovery steam generator costs about USD 26 million on average in 2025, a realised value that varies with gas turbine size and plant configuration and rises 3.0% a year through 2035.

Units paired with the largest, most efficient heavy duty gas turbines cost the most, while smaller industrial units cost considerably less. Supplementary firing, emissions control equipment such as selective catalytic reduction, and fast cycling features add cost. Pricing has strengthened as demand for new gas plants has risen and manufacturing capacity has tightened, and as larger turbines require larger units. The pricing chapter publishes value bands by category and turbine class.

Which 2035 forecast scenario for combined cycle heat recovery steam generators is most likely: gas retreat, base case or demand surge?

USD 10.7 billion in 2035 is the base-case forecast for combined cycle heat recovery steam generators, inside a scenario range of USD 7.11 billion to more than USD 14.3 billion. It carries 5.2% unit growth and 3.0% value-per-unit growth, an 8.36% revenue CAGR.

The gas-retreat scenario, in which decarbonisation policy and battery storage curb new gas plant construction after the current wave, sets the legs at 2.2% and 1.8%, landing near USD 7.11 billion. The demand-surge scenario, in which data centre and electrification demand keep gas plant orders high through the forecast, sets them at 7.2% and 4.0%, carrying the market past USD 14.3 billion; GE Vernova’s 83 GW gas queue at the end of 2025 is the evidence that the surge case is not far-fetched for the late 2020s. Each 1-point change in unit growth moves the 2035 figure by roughly USD 1.00 billion.

Which boiler codes, emissions rules and power policies govern heat recovery steam generators?

Three layers of rules govern combined cycle heat recovery steam generators: pressure equipment and boiler codes for the unit itself, emissions limits that put selective catalytic reduction into many units, and power market policy that decides how much new gas capacity is built.

Pressure equipment and boiler codes come first: heat recovery steam generators are pressure equipment designed and certified to boiler and pressure vessel codes. Emissions regulation is second: limits on nitrogen oxides and other pollutants require emissions control integrated into many units, and carbon policy affects the economics of gas generation. Power market and energy policy is third: capacity markets, reliability requirements and national energy plans determine how much new gas generation is built, and the grid controls that dispatch these plants are sized in our Substation Automation System Market report. The regulatory chapter maps these requirements.

How long will the gas turbine wave last?

The current surge in gas turbine orders is strong, but whether it continues through the whole forecast period is the largest swing factor for heat recovery steam generators: it separates a 2035 market near USD 7.11 billion from one past USD 14.3 billion.

In the near term, turbine backlogs guarantee a steady flow of heat recovery steam generator deliveries through the late 2020s, as plants ordered now are built. Beyond that, the outlook depends on whether electricity demand keeps growing as fast as expected, how quickly battery storage and other clean firm power sources scale, the cost of natural gas, and climate policy. Some forecasts of data centre electricity demand may prove too high, and batteries are increasingly competitive for shorter duration balancing. The model assumes strong demand through the late 2020s moderating in the 2030s, with retrofits and cycling upgrades providing steadier demand. The scenario range captures both a continued surge and an earlier retreat.

Douglas Exclusive: the turbine order to HRSG demand map

The turbine order to HRSG demand map sets out, by region and project, gas turbine orders and backlogs, combined cycle plant construction schedules, heat recovery steam generator requirements by turbine class, and retrofit demand from the installed fleet, converting turbine and power plant pipelines into unit deliveries and value by category and region. Licence holders receive it as a maintained tab in the Excel model. The map is a Douglas Insights model, an estimate rather than an official register, built from 24 modelled cells (4 categories x 6 regions) covering about 185 combined cycle heat recovery steam generator deliveries in 2025, reconciled against gas turbine orders, plant construction schedules and supplier disclosures.

Methodology and receipts

The combined cycle heat recovery steam generator model starts from about 185 units delivered in 2025 at an average realised value of USD 26 million, split into four categories and six regional models that sum to the USD 4.81 billion global figure. It is built bottom-up from units: gas turbine orders and deliveries by class and region, combined cycle and cogeneration plant construction, retrofit and cycling upgrade demand, and realised values from supplier disclosures, with gas and steam turbines, small industrial waste heat boilers, simple cycle plants and wider plant construction excluded. Every figure carries a numbered source and a confidence grade in the fact sheet above, and the working model ships with every licence. The next scheduled review of this study is September 2027. How this report was made: automated checks test every heat recovery steam generator figure on this page against the model and AI tools assist with drafting; the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as set out in our editorial standards.