Combined Cycle Heat Recovery Steam Generator Market

The combined cycle heat recovery steam generator market is worth USD 4,810.0 million in 2025 and reaches USD 10,731.6 million by 2035, compounding at 8.36% a year. The figure is built bottom-up: roughly 185 heat recovery steam generators delivered in 2025 for combined cycle power plants and large cogeneration, across horizontal drum units for large combined cycle plants, once through and fast cycling designs, industrial cogeneration units, and retrofits, upgrades and supplementary firing, at an average realised value of USD 26 million per unit, triangulated against gas turbine orders, power plant construction and supplier disclosures. Units delivered grow 5.2% a year as gas fired generation is built to meet surging electricity demand, while value per unit rises 3.0% a year as larger turbines and fast cycling requirements raise content. Gas turbines are covered in our turbine retrofit coverage and small industrial waste heat boilers in our industrial boilers coverage; both are excluded here. This study sits within our thermal power equipment and services coverage and follows the published Douglas Insights methodology.

Why has combined cycle gas power come back?

Because electricity demand, which was flat for years in many developed countries, has started rising sharply, and combined cycle gas plants are among the few sources that can be built at scale to supply firm power around the clock. Data centres for artificial intelligence and cloud computing, electrification of transport and heating, and new manufacturing have driven the fastest growth in electricity demand in decades in the United States and elsewhere. Utilities and developers have responded by ordering new gas turbines on a scale not seen for many years, to the point where the major turbine manufacturers report backlogs stretching several years ahead. A combined cycle plant pairs a gas turbine with a heat recovery steam generator, which captures the hot exhaust from the turbine to make steam that drives a steam turbine, raising efficiency far above a gas turbine alone. Every combined cycle turbine ordered therefore needs a heat recovery steam generator, which makes this market a direct beneficiary of the gas power revival, though with lead times that follow turbine deliveries. The exclusive chapter of this report maps turbine orders to generator demand by region, since turbine backlogs set the pace.

What does this market include?

This study covers heat recovery steam generators used in combined cycle power plants and large cogeneration facilities. Horizontal drum units for large combined cycle cover the conventional heat recovery steam generators paired with large heavy duty gas turbines in utility power plants, the largest category. Once through and fast cycling designs cover units designed for frequent starts and rapid load changes, including once through steam generators without drums. Industrial cogeneration units cover heat recovery steam generators paired with smaller gas turbines to supply both power and process steam at industrial sites. Retrofits, upgrades and supplementary firing cover modifications to existing units, including duct burners for supplementary firing, emissions control and life extension. Gas turbines and steam turbines themselves, small industrial waste heat boilers, simple cycle plants without heat recovery, and power plant construction beyond the steam generator sit outside the boundary. Value is measured at the price plant owners and contractors pay.

Why must modern steam generators cycle so often?

Because combined cycle plants increasingly run to balance wind and solar rather than running steadily all day, and frequent starts and load changes stress heat recovery steam generators in ways they were not originally designed for. Early combined cycle plants were built to run continuously at high output, and their steam generators were designed for steady operation. As wind and solar have grown, gas plants in many grids start and stop daily, or ramp up and down quickly to fill gaps when renewable output falls. Each start heats thick metal components rapidly, and repeated thermal cycling causes fatigue cracking in drums, headers and tubes, raising maintenance costs and failure risk. Newer designs address this with thinner walled components, once through configurations without heavy drums, and advanced materials and monitoring that tolerate cycling. Owners of existing plants retrofit components to extend life under cycling duty. This shift raises the engineering content and value of new units and supports a retrofit market, which is part of why value per unit rises over the forecast.

What drives demand?

The first driver is electricity demand growth. Data centres, electrification and industrial growth are driving new gas fired generation, especially in the United States and the Middle East.

The second driver is coal plant replacement. Countries retiring coal plants often replace them with combined cycle gas plants, which emit far less carbon dioxide per unit of electricity.

The third driver is grid reliability. Grids with high shares of wind and solar need flexible, dispatchable capacity, and combined cycle plants provide it.

The fourth driver is efficiency and cogeneration. Industrial users and district heating systems use combined heat and power to improve efficiency and reduce energy costs.

What restrains the market?

Three restraints are modelled. Turbine supply constraints are the first: gas turbine manufacturing capacity is limited and backlogs stretch several years, which paces heat recovery steam generator deliveries regardless of demand. Decarbonisation policy is second: long term climate targets make some investors and governments cautious about new gas plants that could operate for decades, and some regions discourage new gas generation. Gas price and supply risk is third: volatile natural gas prices and supply security concerns affect the economics of gas fired generation.

Which categories carry the value?

Horizontal drum units for large combined cycle lead with 50% of 2025 value, USD 2,405.0 million, the core of utility combined cycle plants. Industrial cogeneration units hold 18%, USD 865.8 million. Once through and fast cycling designs account for 16%, USD 769.6 million, and grow fastest as plants must support variable renewables. Retrofits, upgrades and supplementary firing contribute 16%, USD 769.6 million, supported by the large installed fleet and cycling damage. Each category is modelled through 2035 by region.

Where are combined cycle plants being built?

Asia Pacific holds 32% of 2025 value, USD 1,539.2 million, growing 7.8% a year, driven by gas plant construction in China, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and Australia, often replacing coal. North America holds 30%, USD 1,443.0 million, and grows fastest at 9.97%, driven by surging electricity demand from data centres and a large wave of new gas turbine orders. The Middle East holds 20%, USD 962.0 million, at 8.4%, with large power and cogeneration projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere. Europe holds 10%, USD 481.0 million, at 5.2%, where new gas capacity is limited and retrofits dominate. Latin America contributes USD 240.5 million at 7.0% and Africa USD 144.3 million at 8.0%. Six regional models sum to the global figure, with country tables in the Excel model.

Who makes heat recovery steam generators?

Specialist manufacturers and the power divisions of larger engineering groups supply the market. NEM Energy, Nooter/Eriksen, John Cockerill and Doosan Enerbility are leading suppliers, and Siemens Energy, GE Vernova and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries supply heat recovery steam generators alongside their gas turbines in some projects. Harbin Electric, Hangzhou Boiler Group and other Chinese manufacturers supply large volumes domestically and abroad, and Thermax and BHEL serve India and other markets. Engineering, procurement and construction contractors integrate heat recovery steam generators into plants. The competitive chapter profiles each manufacturer’s designs, capacity, cycling capability and regional presence.

How are heat recovery steam generators priced?

Average realised value is USD 26 million per unit in 2025, varying with gas turbine size and plant configuration. Units paired with the largest, most efficient heavy duty gas turbines cost the most, while smaller industrial units cost considerably less. Supplementary firing, emissions control equipment such as selective catalytic reduction, and fast cycling features add cost. Pricing has strengthened as demand for new gas plants has risen and manufacturing capacity has tightened, and as larger turbines require larger units. The pricing chapter publishes value bands by category and turbine class.

How do the scenarios diverge by 2035?

The base case carries 5.2% growth in units and 3.0% growth in value per unit for an 8.36% revenue CAGR and USD 10,731.6 million in 2035. The gas-retreat scenario, in which decarbonisation policy and battery storage curb new gas plant construction after the current wave, sets the legs at 2.2% and 1.8%, landing near USD 7,110 million. The demand-surge scenario, in which data centre and electrification demand keep gas plant orders high through the forecast, sets them at 7.2% and 4.0%, carrying the market past USD 14,300 million. Each 1-point change in unit growth moves the 2035 figure by roughly USD 1,000 million.

Which rules and standards apply?

Three layers matter. Pressure equipment and boiler codes come first: heat recovery steam generators are pressure equipment designed and certified to boiler and pressure vessel codes. Emissions regulation is second: limits on nitrogen oxides and other pollutants require emissions control integrated into many units, and carbon policy affects the economics of gas generation. Power market and energy policy is third: capacity markets, reliability requirements and national energy plans determine how much new gas generation is built. The regulatory chapter maps these requirements.

How long will the gas turbine wave last?

The current surge in gas turbine orders is strong, but whether it continues through the whole forecast period is uncertain, and that uncertainty is the largest swing factor for this market. In the near term, turbine backlogs guarantee a steady flow of heat recovery steam generator deliveries through the late 2020s, as plants ordered now are built. Beyond that, the outlook depends on whether electricity demand keeps growing as fast as expected, how quickly battery storage and other clean firm power sources scale, the cost of natural gas, and climate policy. Some forecasts of data centre electricity demand may prove too high, and batteries are increasingly competitive for shorter duration balancing. The model assumes strong demand through the late 2020s moderating in the 2030s, with retrofits and cycling upgrades providing steadier demand. The scenario range captures both a continued surge and an earlier retreat.

Douglas Exclusive: the turbine order to HRSG demand map

This report maps, by region and project, gas turbine orders and backlogs, combined cycle plant construction schedules, heat recovery steam generator requirements by turbine class, and retrofit demand from the installed fleet, converting turbine and power plant pipelines into unit deliveries and value by category and region. Licence holders receive it as a maintained tab in the Excel model.

Methodology and receipts

The model is built bottom-up from units: gas turbine orders and deliveries by class and region, combined cycle and cogeneration plant construction, retrofit and cycling upgrade demand, and realised values from supplier disclosures, with gas and steam turbines, small industrial waste heat boilers, simple cycle plants and wider plant construction excluded. Every figure carries a numbered source and a confidence grade in the fact sheet above, and the working model ships with every licence. The next scheduled review of this study is September 2027.