9 Series High Nickel Precursor Market

GEM held a mass-production and shipment ceremony for its 9-series quaternary core-shell precursor at Jingmen on 21 July 2025, planning 2,000 tonnes a month with all output going to leading international supply chains, Mysteel reported. The 9 series high nickel precursor market covers nickel-cobalt-manganese, nickel-cobalt-aluminium and quaternary hydroxide precursors with 90% or more nickel in the transition-metal mix, sold to cathode makers for EV and consumer cells. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 1.56 billion in 2025, about 120,000 tonnes at an average USD 13,000 a tonne, and at USD 5.09 billion in 2035, a 12.56% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The study sits beside our EV Battery Market, Battery Recycling Market and Lithium Mining Market reports; every figure follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Which 9 series precursor chemistry earns the most: NCM 90, NCA, quaternary NCMA or 95%-plus nickel?

NCM 90-series hydroxide earns the most, 48.0% of 2025 9-series precursor value or about USD 749 million, Douglas Insights estimates. Precursors with 95% or more nickel grow fastest, 19.0% a year to USD 533 million by 2035.

NCM 90-series leads because Korean cell makers build their flagship pouch and large cylindrical cells on it and because Chinese precursor plants already run NCM co-precipitation lines that can be retuned to 90% nickel. CNGR reported that a 225 mAh/g high-nickel product entered mass production in 2025 and that its ultra-high-nickel precursors reach up to 230 mAh/g, its annual results filing of 30 March 2026 states. Douglas Insights estimates about 57,600 tonnes of NCM 90-series hydroxide in 2025; its value grows 12.6% a year to USD 2.45 billion.

NCA 90-plus hydroxide, USD 499 million, grows 10.6% because Japanese and Korean cylindrical cell lines keep using it while NCM 90 takes new pouch programmes. Samsung SDI began producing 46-series high-nickel NCA cylindrical cells at Cheonan for a US customer, the Korea Times reported on 31 March 2025. Quaternary NCMA core-shell hydroxide, USD 218 million, grows 14.0% as GEM and others ship graded particles, and 95%-plus grades, USD 93.6 million, grow 19.0%. Chemistry values for 2035 sum to USD 5.16 billion, 1.38% above the headline.

Which battery applications buy 9 series precursor: EV traction cells, consumer electronics or other uses?

EV traction cells buy the most 9-series precursor, 86.0% of 2025 value or about USD 1.34 billion, Douglas Insights estimates. EV traction also grows fastest, 12.9% a year to USD 4.51 billion by 2035.

EV traction leads because long-range premium cars need the highest energy per kilogram. The International Energy Agency counts 1.2 TWh of EV batteries deployed in 2025, up about 30%, and finds that outside China about 80% of EV batteries use nickel-based chemistries, its Global EV Outlook 2026 shows. Douglas Insights estimates that cells with 90% or more nickel took about 13% of nickel-based EV capacity in 2025, about 70 GWh.

Consumer electronics and power-tool cells, USD 140 million, grow 9.5% a year. Price reporting followed the shift: SMM added a 9-series NCM cathode price for consumer electronics, with nickel of 90% or more, effective 1 July 2026, its announcement of 26 June 2026 states. Other uses, USD 78.0 million, grow 12.0%. Application values for 2035 sum to USD 5.10 billion, 0.22% above the headline.

What drives 9 series precursor demand: premium cell programmes, EV sales, qualified capacity or solid-state cells?

Tonnage rises 12.0% a year in our base case, from about 120,000 tonnes in 2025 to about 373,000 tonnes in 2035. Four drivers add 16.0 points of gross volume growth; three restraints remove 4.0 points.

Premium cell programmes above 90% nickel: 6.00 points

Cell programmes are the largest driver, worth 6.00 points. LG Energy Solution completed an NCMA cell with more than 95% nickel that is already in customer projects, and it already supplies cells above 94% nickel, SMM reported on 15 April 2026. Mercedes-Benz agreed to buy 107 GWh of cells from LG Energy Solution, 75 GWh for the US and 32 GWh for Europe, between 2028 and 2037, electrive reported on 3 September 2025, and Samsung SDI won its first Mercedes-Benz order for high-nickel NCM cells, EHVT reported on 20 April 2026. Douglas Insights estimates that 1 GWh of 90%-plus nickel cells needs about 1,550 tonnes of precursor.

Growth in electric car sales: 4.50 points

Electric car sales add 4.50 points. Global sales passed 20 million in 2025, up about 20% and a quarter of all new cars, with Europe at 4.2 million and the US at about 1.5 million, the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 shows, against more than 17 million in 2024, per its 2025 edition. The IEA projects about 23 million in 2026, nearly 30% of sales, Electrek reported on 19 May 2026. Douglas Insights estimates that each extra million premium nickel-based cars adds about 7,000 tonnes of 9-series precursor at 75 kWh a car and a 6% 90%-plus share.

Qualified precursor capacity and long-term contracts: 3.50 points

Supply contracts add 3.50 points. Huayou Cobalt agreed to supply LG Energy Solution with 76,000 tonnes of ternary precursor and 88,000 tonnes of ternary cathode over 2026 to 2030, its filing of 29 September 2025 shows, and 79,600 tonnes of precursor to another global customer through March 2029, per its 16 December 2025 filing. CNGR said its industry-first ultra-high-nickel precursor reached mass production, Mysteel reported on 4 June 2026. Douglas Insights estimates that about 30% of contracted high-nickel tonnage moves to 90%-plus grades by 2030.

Solid-state and semi-solid cells: 2.00 points

Solid-state cells add the last 2.00 points. CNGR shipped about 100 tonnes of solid-state precursor in 2025 and targets high double-digit growth in 2026, its 30 March 2026 filing states, and GEM reached ton-level shipments of high-nickel materials for solid-state cells, SMM reported on 10 March 2026. Sulfide solid-state cells pair best with single-crystal Ni90 and Ni92 cathodes, SMM noted on 16 September 2025. Summed, 6.00 + 4.50 + 3.50 + 2.00 = 16.0 points, a Douglas Insights estimate.

What holds 9 series precursor back: LFP substitution, Indonesian nickel policy or cathode plant pivots?

Three restraints remove 4.0 points a year from 9-series tonnage growth: LFP substitution takes 2.00 points, Indonesian nickel supply policy 1.20 points and cathode plant pivots away from nickel 0.80 points.

LFP substitution is the heaviest drag. Lithium iron phosphate took more than 55% of EV batteries in 2025, up from about 50% in 2024, and average battery prices fell about 8%, the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 shows. China’s ternary precursor exports fell to 6,487 tonnes in December 2025, down 49% on the year, with 95% of NCM exports going to Korea, SMM reported on 21 January 2026. Douglas Insights estimates that every point of LFP share gained in Europe and North America removes about 1,800 tonnes of future 9-series demand.

Indonesian policy takes 1.20 points. Indonesia’s energy ministry had approved only up to about 200 million tonnes of 2026 nickel ore quota by early April, SMM reported on 6 April 2026, after the government raised ore royalties from 10% to between 14% and 19% from 26 April 2025, per SMM. Plant pivots take 0.80 points: part of the CNGR and POSCO Future M Pohang NCM line converts to LFP cathode for energy storage from the end of 2026, Asia Economy reported on 16 December 2025.

Which region consumes the most 9 series precursor, and where does demand grow fastest?

Asia Pacific consumes the most 9-series precursor, USD 1.37 billion or 88.0% of 2025 value, and Europe grows fastest, 15.6% a year from USD 109 million to USD 465 million by 2035.

Asia Pacific leads because the cathode plants that turn hydroxide into oxide sit in Korea, Japan and China. L&F and LS completed a precursor plant at Saemangeum to feed L&F’s high-nickel cathode lines, planning 20,000 tonnes in 2026, 40,000 tonnes in 2027 and 120,000 tonnes a year by 2029 for about KRW 1 trillion, Asia Economy reported on 2 October 2025. Korea Zinc and LG Chem’s joint venture began mass production of precursor with more than 80% nickel, Asia Economy reported on 21 January 2025. Regional value grows 12.2% a year to USD 4.34 billion, a Douglas Insights estimate.

Europe, USD 109 million, grows fastest at 15.6%: EcoPro BM began cathode production at Debrecen in Hungary, 54,000 tonnes a year at first and 108,000 tonnes planned, feeding Samsung SDI’s high-nickel cells at Göd, electrive reported on 1 December 2025. North America, USD 62.4 million, grows 15.5% as 46-series cell lines arrive. Latin America, USD 9.36 million, and the Middle East and Africa, USD 6.24 million, each grow 12.0%. Regional values sum to USD 1.76 billion in 2026, in line with the headline, and USD 5.12 billion in 2035, 0.49% above it.

Which companies lead the 9 series high nickel precursor market?

CNGR leads 9-series precursor with about 38% of 2025 value, Douglas Insights estimates, ahead of GEM at about 20%, Huayou Cobalt at about 12%, Sumitomo Metal Mining at about 7% and the Korea Zinc and LG Chem joint venture at about 6%.

CNGR is the scale leader: its 2025 revenue reached RMB 48.1 billion, nickel-based materials earned RMB 16.7 billion, and it held about 200,000 tonnes of laterite nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia, its HKEX results filing shows. GEM first announced mass shipments of a 9-series core-shell ternary precursor in April 2025 with about 3,000 tonnes a month planned, Jiemian reported on 7 April 2025, and later set the quaternary line at 2,000 tonnes a month; it plans more than 35,000 tonnes of ternary cathode in 2026, per SMM on 18 June 2026.

Huayou Cobalt is the fastest-growing major. Its 2025 revenue rose 32.94% to RMB 81.02 billion and ternary cathode shipments more than doubled to over 100,000 tonnes, 10jqka reported on its annual report on 7 April 2026, and first-half 2026 precursor shipments reached 80,800 tonnes, up about 94%, per SMM on 19 August 2026. Only part of that tonnage is 90%-plus nickel; our 12% share is a Douglas Insights estimate.

Outside China, Umicore’s battery materials revenue rose 11% to EUR 436 million in 2025 with adjusted EBITDA of minus EUR 21 million, its full-year results of 20 February 2026 show; Umicore, EcoPro, POSCO Future M, L&F and Brunp share the remaining 17% of value, a Douglas Insights estimate. Douglas Insights expects Korean in-house precursor to reach about 25% of 9-series supply by 2030 as US and EU sourcing rules tighten.

How much does 9 series precursor cost, and how much of the price is nickel?

A tonne of 9-series precursor sells for an average USD 13,000 in 2025, Douglas Insights estimates, of which about USD 8,400 is contained nickel, about USD 1,900 cobalt and manganese, and about USD 2,700 processing fee and margin.

The price ladder follows metal content. Nickel averaged USD 15,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange in 2025, down 11%, the US Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 shows, and a 9-series hydroxide carries about 56% nickel by mass, so contained nickel is worth about USD 8,400 a tonne, a Douglas Insights calculation. LME nickel closed at USD 17,241 a tonne on 10 April 2026, SMM reported, which would lift contained nickel to about USD 9,650. NCA grades sell about 4% below NCM 90 on lower cobalt, and core-shell quaternary grades about 8% above, Douglas Insights estimates.

Average price rises 0.5% a year in the base case, to about USD 13,700 in 2035, as tighter Indonesian ore quotas lift nickel while processing fees fall about 2% a year with scale. The processing fee for a 9-series grade is about USD 600 a tonne above an 8-series grade because co-precipitation must run slower and tighter to hold particle density, a Douglas Insights estimate. One USD 1,000 move in the nickel price shifts 2025 market value by about USD 67 million.

What if LFP spreads further or premium cells win: how large is the market in 2035?

The 9 series high nickel precursor market ends 2035 between USD 3.05 billion and USD 7.65 billion across our three cases, around a base of USD 5.09 billion. LFP share and the nickel price set most of the spread.

In the slower case LFP and manganese-rich cells take most European and US mid-range cars, more NCM lines convert to LFP and nickel falls back towards USD 14,000, taking 4.0 points off tonnage and 1.5 points off price. In the faster case 46-series and solid-state programmes switch to 90%-plus nickel and Indonesia holds quotas tight, adding 3.5 points of tonnage and 1.0 point of price. One extra point of yearly revenue growth adds about USD 470 million to 2035 value, a Douglas Insights estimate.

Live signals sit near the base case. Huayou’s 94% first-half precursor growth and LG Energy Solution’s 95%-nickel cell point up; the Pohang LFP conversion and the 49% fall in Chinese precursor exports point down. The signal to watch is the status of China’s precursor export controls after their one-year suspension of 30 October 2025, per SMM, ends: if licensing returns, Douglas Insights would move more 9-series supply to Korean plants in the model.

Which rules shape 9 series precursor trade, from Chinese export licences to the EU Battery Regulation?

Three rule sets shape 9-series precursor: Chinese export controls on high-nickel hydroxides and battery technology, US tax-credit sourcing limits, and the EU Battery Regulation with its carbon-footprint and passport duties.

The export layer is the most direct. China’s Announcement No. 58 of 2025, issued on 9 October 2025, covered cells of 300 Wh/kg or more and NCM and NCA hydroxide precursors under HS 28539030 and 28539050, and was suspended for one year on 30 October 2025, SMM reported. Earlier, China added cathode preparation and lithium refining technology to its restricted technology export catalogue, electrive reported on 15 July 2025. Douglas Insights estimates that about 70% of 9-series precursor tonnage was made in China in 2025.

The US layer works through tax credits: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in July 2025, ended the 30D clean vehicle credit for vehicles acquired after 30 September 2025 and added prohibited-foreign-entity limits to the 45X manufacturing credit, Cleary Gottlieb summarised. In Europe, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 requires a digital battery passport for EV batteries from 18 February 2027 and sets recycled-content targets for nickel and cobalt from 2031, which favour precursor plants with traceable, lower-carbon nickel, a Douglas Insights reading.

Douglas Exclusive: the Nickel Pass-Through Ratio

The Nickel Pass-Through Ratio is a Douglas Insights model of 8 inputs: 2 price records, 3 company records and 3 policy records, listed below. It measures how much of a 9-series precursor price is contained metal that buyers pass straight through, and how much is fee that producers can defend.

The finding, a Douglas Insights estimate: contained nickel was about 65% of the 2025 9-series precursor price (USD 8,400 / USD 13,000 = 0.646), cobalt and manganese about 15% and fee about 21%. At the April 2026 nickel price of USD 17,241, per SMM, the metal share rises to about 68%, so a 15% nickel rally lifts precursor prices about 10% even with fees unchanged.

The ratio changes how to read revenue. Producers reporting 30% revenue growth in a nickel rally may be growing tonnage only 20%, and the fee pool, about USD 324 million in 2025, is what pays for 9-series qualification. If fees fall 2% a year while tonnage grows 12%, the fee pool still reaches about USD 820 million by 2035, enough to fund about four new 9-series lines a year.

How does the methodology turn 120,000 tonnes into USD 1.56 billion?

Our methodology multiplies about 120,000 tonnes of 9-series precursor in 2025 by an average USD 13,000 a tonne to reach USD 1.56 billion, then grows tonnage 12.0% a year and price 0.5% a year.

The model covers 4 chemistries, 3 applications and 5 regions, using 56 data points, 24 sourced and 32 modelled. Tonnage comes from a demand build: about 70 GWh of 90%-plus nickel EV cells and about 8 GWh of other cells at about 1,550 tonnes of precursor per GWh, Douglas Insights estimates drawn from IEA battery data and company disclosures. Arithmetic: 120,000 x USD 13,000 = USD 1.56 billion; USD 1.56 billion x (1.120 x 1.005)^10 = USD 5.09 billion. Tonnage reaches about 134,000 in 2026 and 373,000 in 2035.

Two cross-checks agree. First, GEM’s two 9-series lines at 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes a month imply 24,000 to 36,000 tonnes a year at full run, bracketing our 20% GEM share of about 24,000 tonnes. Second, Huayou’s 76,000 tonnes of contracted precursor over five years is about 15,200 tonnes a year, near our 12% share of about 14,400 tonnes, a Douglas Insights cross-check. AI tools help draft the text and automated checks test the arithmetic and links; the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as our editorial standards explain.

Sources

1. CNGR Advanced Material (HKEX) CNGR 2025 annual results (2026)
2. International Energy Agency Global EV Outlook 2026: electric vehicle batteries (2026)
3. International Energy Agency Global EV Outlook 2026: trends in electric cars (2026)
4. US Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: nickel (2026)
5. Huayou Cobalt (SSE filing) Huayou Cobalt LG Energy Solution supply filing (2025)
6. Mysteel GEM 9-series quaternary precursor ceremony (2025)
7. SMM China suspends lithium battery and material export controls (2025)
8. EUR-Lex Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 on batteries (2023)
9. Umicore Umicore full-year results 2025 (2026)
10. electrive EcoPro BM starts cathode production in Hungary (2025)

What counts in the 9 series high nickel precursor study, and what is excluded?

The 9 series high nickel precursor study counts NCM, NCA and quaternary NCMA hydroxide precursors with 90% or more nickel in the transition-metal mix, including single-crystal and core-shell grades and grades made for solid-state cells. Finished cathode oxide, 8-series and lower-nickel precursor, LFP precursors and nickel sulphate sold separately are excluded.

The study splits value by 4 chemistries, 3 applications and 5 regions: Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa. Cell demand appears in our EV Battery Market report, end-of-life nickel recovery in the Battery Recycling Market study and the lithium that pairs with the precursor in calcination in the Lithium Mining Market report.