Avgas Market

About 220,000 piston aircraft in the United States still burn leaded fuel, yet only 212 US airports sell an unleaded alternative. Aviation gasoline (avgas) is the spark-ignition fuel for piston-engine aeroplanes and helicopters; the avgas market covers 100 octane low lead (100LL) and the unleaded grades that replace it, valued at the price operators pay into the aircraft. Douglas Insights counts 1.381 billion litres sold worldwide in 2025 at a blended USD 2.049 per litre, so 1.381 billion litres × USD 2.049 = USD 2.83 billion. Our model lifts that to USD 3.83 billion by 2035, a revenue CAGR of 3.07% over 2026 to 2035. The squeeze on lead tightened when the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) published its unleaded transition plan on 30 July 2026, which sets 2030 as the target for moving the fleet off leaded fuel under the Eliminate Aviation Gasoline Lead Emissions (EAGLE) programme. Related fuel and engine studies sit in our aerospace and defense hub, and every figure follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Which avgas grade makes the money: 100LL, UL94 or 100-octane unleaded?

100LL leaded avgas makes the money, USD 2.68 billion or 94.84% of 2025 avgas value on our model, because it is the only grade every certificated piston engine can legally burn. 100-octane unleaded avgas (G100UL, 100R and UL100E) is the fastest grade, compounding 75.40% a year from a tiny base.

100LL leaded avgas holds USD 2.68 billion today and falls 8.40% a year to USD 1.12 billion in 2035. The decline is policy, not preference: US sales of leaded fuel are meant to end with 2030, with Alaska following in 2032, while flying clubs outside North America keep 100LL much longer.

Low-octane unleaded avgas (UL91, UL94 and 91/96UL) carries USD 137.8 million, or 4.87%, and grows 12.60% a year to USD 451.5 million. Lower-compression engines in trainers and microlights accept it, and Swift UL94 is approved for more than 70% of the US piston fleet, which makes it the cheapest first step for flight schools.

100-octane unleaded avgas (G100UL, 100R and UL100E) is worth only USD 8.2 million in 2025 on our estimate, 0.29% of the avgas total. It rises to USD 2.26 billion by 2035 because high-compression and turbocharged engines, which a low-octane fuel cannot serve, burn a disproportionate share of every gallon.

Which flight operations burn the most avgas, by segment of end use?

Flight training burns the most avgas, 41.6% of 2025 value or USD 1.18 billion by Douglas Insights estimate, because trainers fly many short sorties every day of the year. Private and recreational flying follows at 33.9%, then commercial piston operations and state fleets, which together take the remaining 24.5%.

Flight training accounts for USD 1.18 billion, with high utilisation that suits bulk contracts. Private and recreational flying carries USD 959.4 million; owners fly fewer hours but pay posted prices. Commercial piston operations, meaning air taxi, aerial work, crop spraying and survey flying, hold 18.2%, or USD 515.1 million. Government and military users take 6.3%, or USD 178.3 million, for police, border and basic military training aircraft. Training demand also feeds our Aviation Maintenance Training Market report.

Why are flight schools and student pilots lifting avgas demand?

Avgas litres rise 0.74% a year in the Douglas Insights base case, from 1.381 billion in 2025 to 1.487 billion in 2035. Student pilot growth, steadier US flying hours and rising piston activity outside North America add 1.31 points of gross volume, before restraints remove 0.57 points.

Student pilots and flight school utilisation

FAA airmen records count 370,286 student pilots, up 7.2% from 345,495 a year earlier, within 887,519 active pilots. The 7.2% jump is the strongest signal for 2026 and 2027 avgas demand. Each student logs hours in a piston trainer before any turbine type rating, so a larger student pool converts directly into avgas litres. Students are 41.7% of all active pilots. Douglas Insights estimates that flight training alone adds 0.63 percentage points of avgas volume growth, the largest single contribution, concentrated in 100LL and UL94 at school airfields.

Steadier US flying and new piston deliveries

US avgas product supplied reached 4,541 thousand barrels in 2025, up from 4,511 thousand in 2024 and 4,002 thousand in 2020, on Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. That is about 190.7 million gallons, or 722.0 million litres, of avgas a year, and 13.5% above the 2020 level. Growth since 2024 was a mere 0.7%, so the recovery has levelled off. The General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) reported 1,782 piston aeroplane shipments in 2025, up 0.6%, and 206 piston helicopters, in its annual shipment report. Douglas Insights values higher utilisation and fleet additions at 0.29 points of avgas volume.

Piston flying outside North America

Australia reported 44 thousand tonnes of avgas final consumption in 2022, Canada 41 thousand, Brazil and Kazakhstan 33 thousand each and France 18 thousand, on United Nations energy statistics covering 88 country records. Those markets add flight schools faster than the US base grows, and several do not yet face a leaded-fuel end date. Mexico added 17 thousand tonnes on the same United Nations record. Douglas Insights expects these markets to supply 0.39 points of avgas volume growth, so 0.63 + 0.29 + 0.39 = 1.31 points of gross gain.

Restraints then remove 0.57 points, leaving the 0.74% volume leg. Of the 1.31 gross points, flight training supplies 48.1%, utilisation 22.1% and markets abroad 29.8%, so student numbers decide the outcome. Price adds 2.31% a year, and the two legs multiply to the 3.07% avgas revenue CAGR.

Which barriers hold back avgas volumes as mogas pumps and an ageing piston fleet bite?

Three barriers remove 0.57 points from annual avgas volume growth on our model: motor gasoline (mogas) substitution, an ageing piston fleet and friction in the switch away from lead. Without them, avgas litres would rise 1.31% a year instead of 0.74%.

Mogas bites first. 172 US airports already sell automotive-grade fuel to aircraft holding the right approvals, and every litre bought there is a litre of avgas not sold. We remove 0.24 points of avgas volume for this substitution, mostly in Private and recreational flying.

Fleet age is the second constraint. GAMA’s latest annual count of 1,782 new piston aeroplanes equals about 0.81% of the 220,000 US piston aircraft the FAA counts, so the fleet renews slowly and retirements outpace additions in older types. We take 0.19 points of avgas volume off for retirements.

Transition friction is the third hurdle. The FAA plan judges a single drop-in replacement for 100LL not feasible, so airports must add tanks for a second grade, and Innospec, the only maker of tetraethyl lead (TEL), plans to stop producing it by 2030. Added together, mogas at 0.24, retirements at 0.19 and this friction at 0.14 make the 0.57-point drag.

How much does a litre of 100LL cost at the FBO pump in 2025?

Pilots pay far more than the USD 2.049 per litre blended into-plane price Douglas Insights uses for 2025 avgas. Posted 100LL averaged USD 7.41 a gallon, about USD 1.96 a litre, across 3,480 US fixed-base operators (FBOs), and contract buyers pay less.

The posted range runs from USD 4.43 to USD 15.42 a gallon, and regional averages spanned USD 6.98 in the FAA Central region to USD 10.65 in Alaska. Douglas Insights puts the North American realised avgas price at USD 1.84 per litre, 6% below the posted average, because flight schools buy in bulk and self-serve pumps undercut full service.

Unleaded grades carry a premium. In the National Academies price survey, Swift UL94 averaged USD 0.68 a gallon more than 100LL, equal to about 9.2% of today’s posted price, with airport differences from USD 1.50 below to USD 2.82 above. Average avgas prices rise 2.31% a year in our base case, to USD 2.575 per litre in 2035, as unleaded premiums blend into the mix and TEL supply winds down.

Which suppliers refine and blend avgas, from Phillips 66 and ExxonMobil to Swift Fuels?

Three refiners supply 44.8% of 2025 avgas value by Douglas Insights estimate: Phillips 66 at 19.4%, ExxonMobil at 17.8% and TotalEnergies at 7.6%. No supplier discloses avgas revenue, so shares rest on refinery footprint, branded FBO networks and the grades each company sells.

Phillips 66 describes itself as one of the largest US refiners and a leading supplier of jet fuel, avgas and aviation lubricants, with nearly 100 years in aviation. ExxonMobil’s blue-dyed Avgas 100LL meets ASTM D910 and DEF STAN 91-090, with a lead content of 0.27 to 0.53 mL per litre and a minimum motor octane of 99.6. TotalEnergies sells AVGAS UL91 to ASTM D7547 alongside 100LL, with red-painted nozzles to prevent misfuelling.

Warter Aviation, based in Poland, makes 100LL, UL91 and B91 and reports sales in more than 80 countries. Hjelmco Oil of Sollentuna, Sweden, introduced its 91/96UL in 1991. Swift Fuels has produced 5.8 million gallons of unleaded avgas since UL94 arrived in 2015, including more than 200,000 gallons of 100R, and on 14 July 2026 announced an FAA approved model list (AML) expansion adding 1,200 piston engine models and 1,600 airframe models to its 100R supplemental type certificate (STC).

Two more names shape the next decade. General Aviation Modifications Inc (GAMI) received an expanded STC for G100UL in September 2022, and LyondellBasell with VP Racing Fuels develops UL100E inside the FAA Piston Aviation Fuels Initiative (PAFI). Upstream, Innospec makes the TEL that every litre of 100LL needs; its Fuel Specialties segment reported USD 701.5 million of 2025 sales.

Which region burns the most avgas, and why does Asia Pacific outpace North America?

North America burns the most avgas, USD 1.44 billion or 50.8% of 2025 value, because the United States alone uses about 722 million litres a year. Asia Pacific grows fastest at 3.78% a year to USD 753.0 million in 2035, on flight school growth in Australia and Southeast Asia.

North America compounds at 2.86% to USD 1.91 billion, held back by mogas and fleet age but supported by unleaded premiums after 2030. Europe carries USD 396.5 million, or 14.0%, and grows 2.96% a year to USD 530.8 million as UL91 widens at club airfields. Asia Pacific starts at USD 519.6 million, or 18.4%, with Australia the largest reported user. Latin America holds USD 333.7 million, or 11.8%, rising 3.41% a year to USD 466.6 million, led by Brazil, Mexico and Colombia crop-spraying and training fleets.

The Middle East and Africa is the wildcard at USD 142.6 million, or 5.0%, growing 1.88% a year to USD 171.8 million. Much of its avgas moves in drums to remote strips, so one military training contract or one closed terminal can move the regional total by more than a tenth.

How do FBO into-plane sales, self-serve pumps and drums split avgas volume?

FBO into-plane sales carry 58.4% of 2025 avgas value, or USD 1.65 billion on our estimate, because most piston aircraft still refuel from a fixed-base operator’s truck or hydrant. Self-serve pumps hold 29.7% and Bulk and drum supply 11.9%, the second growing as schools buy unleaded fuel by the tank.

Self-serve pumps account for USD 840.5 million and win share wherever posted full-service prices sit well above USD 7.41 a gallon. Bulk and drum supply carries USD 336.8 million, covering school fuel farms, agricultural strips and military depots.

How many US airports already dispense unleaded avgas beside 100LL?

212 US airports offer an unleaded avgas alternative, against 3,480 FBOs posting 100LL prices, a ratio of about 6.1%. Douglas Insights puts the gap down as the main reason unleaded avgas held only 0.29% of 2025 high-octane value despite approvals covering most of the fleet.

Early availability data show the shape: 36 airports sold UL94, 2 sold G100UL and 3 California fields sold 100R. Swift says aircraft on its expanded 100R list consume 56% of all avgas sold in the United States, and it distributes in 29 states. Federal airport grants can fund new tanks, and all approved unleaded fuels can mix safely with 100LL, which lowers the cost of a second grade. On board, the switch also touches gauging and tank logic covered in our Aircraft Fuel Management System Market study.

Which rules force the end of tetraethyl lead in avgas by 2030?

Two US rules set the clock: the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) endangerment finding on aircraft lead and the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, which targets an unleaded fleet by 2030. Douglas Insights estimates 50.8% of 2025 avgas value sits under those rules.

The EPA published its final endangerment finding on 20 October 2023, concluding that lead emissions from piston aircraft engines endanger public health and welfare. The finding obliges the EPA to propose lead emission standards and the FAA to set fuel composition standards.

The FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, Public Law 118-63, was signed on 16 May 2024 and directed a transition plan. The FAA took comments on the draft from 12 January to 13 March 2026, published version 1.0 on 30 July 2026 and expects version 2.0 in late 2027. 100LL stays available through at least 2030, and through 2032 in Alaska. Outside the US, avgas grades follow ASTM D910 for 100LL and ASTM D7547 for UL91 and UL94, with DEF STAN 91-090 in British and Commonwealth supply.

How far could tetraethyl lead’s exit swing the 2035 avgas forecast?

The 2035 avgas figure lands between USD 3.15 billion and USD 4.42 billion across our cases, with USD 3.83 billion in the base. Flight school growth and mogas uptake set the volume leg; unleaded premiums and the TEL wind-down set the price leg.

The slower case assumes more mogas use, faster retirements and owners flying less while airports add unleaded tanks. The faster case assumes UL100E and 100R reach fleet authorization on time and premiums stick, while engine monitors described in our Avionics Market report help owners prove unleaded performance. Both start from the plan the FAA released on 30 July 2026, which tests three fuels at the William J Hughes Technical Center in phase one.

Avgas litres matter more than price for the 2035 total. One extra point of annual volume growth adds USD 397.4 million to 2035; one point less takes away USD 363.5 million. Outside estimates we read run from 3.86% to 15.57% a year, and our 3.07% sits below all of them because we model falling 100LL litres.

Douglas Exclusive: the Unleaded Avgas Approval Register

The Unleaded Avgas Approval Register is a Douglas Insights model built from 14 inputs: 10 dated approvals, specifications and policy steps, plus 4 volume and distribution data points. It lists every unleaded avgas approval we could verify and tests it against how much fuel actually reaches aircraft.

The register’s four volume inputs are EIA’s 4,541 thousand barrels of 2025 US avgas, 3,480 FBOs posting 100LL, 212 airports offering unleaded fuel and Swift’s 5.8 million gallons produced since 2015. Its finding: approvals now cover aircraft burning more than half of US avgas, yet Swift’s average output of about 0.53 million gallons a year equals only 0.28% of the 190.7 million gallons the US consumed in 2025.

Paperwork leads. Pumps lag. Seven of the ten register entries date from 2023 or later, and four from the last 15 months, but unleaded fuel reaches only 6.1% as many sites as 100LL does. The register will be updated as fleet authorizations for 100R and UL100E arrive, which the FAA expects in 2027.

What methodology converts EIA barrels and UN tonnes into the avgas base?

Douglas Insights puts 2025 avgas at 1.381 billion litres in 5 regions, multiplied by a USD 2.049 blended price to give USD 2.83 billion. US litres come from EIA barrels; other countries come from UN tonnes, converted with a density implied by the US data.

US volume: 4,541 thousand barrels × 158.987 litres = 722.0 million litres. Density check: the UN database records 485 thousand tonnes of US avgas for 2022, while EIA records 4,419 thousand barrels, implying 0.690 kg per litre. UN data cover 88 country records totalling 809 thousand tonnes in 2022; we add allowances for countries that do not report, giving Europe 150.2, Asia Pacific 228.9, Latin America 162.0 and Middle East and Africa 58.7 million litres, plus North America at 781.4.

Regional receipts: North America 781.4 million litres × USD 1.84; Europe 150.2 × USD 2.64; Asia Pacific 228.9 × USD 2.27; Latin America 162.0 × USD 2.06; Middle East and Africa 58.7 × USD 2.43. Compounding 1.0074 for litres with 1.0231 for price gives a 3.07% yearly revenue rise. Simple. Volume in 2026 is 1.391 billion litres at USD 2.096 per litre.

Cross-check one: two published 2025 values, USD 2.39 billion and USD 2.50 billion, average USD 2.45 billion, and our USD 2.83 billion sits 15.8% above it because we price at the pump rather than the refinery gate. Cross-check two: the North American price of USD 1.84 per litre sits 6% under the posted USD 1.96. Grade values for 2035 sum to USD 3.83 billion, within 0.1% of the base.

Sources

1. Federal Aviation Administration FAA releases plan for transitioning general aviation aircraft to unleaded gas (2026)
2. Federal Aviation Administration Building an unleaded future by 2030 (EAGLE) (2026)
3. US Environmental Protection Agency Regulations for lead emissions from aircraft (2023)
4. US Energy Information Administration Product supplied: finished aviation gasoline, annual (2026)
5. General Aviation Manufacturers Association GAMA releases 2025 aircraft shipment and billing report (2026)
6. Federal Aviation Administration US civil airmen statistics (2026)
7. Swift Fuels Swift Fuels news releases (2026)
8. TotalEnergies All about AVGAS UL91 (2026)
9. ExxonMobil Avgas 100LL product data (2026)
10. United Nations Statistics Division Energy Statistics Database: aviation gasoline final consumption (2025)
11. AirNav Fuel price report (2026)