U.S. Nonresidential Building Construction Market

U.S. spending on manufacturing buildings ran 21.8% below the 2025 pace in the first eight months of 2026, while office construction, the Census category that includes data centres, ran 11.2% above it, according to the Census Bureau’s construction spending release of 1 October 2026. The factory boom is over and the server-hall boom has taken its place. The U.S. nonresidential building construction market covers the value of new nonresidential buildings, additions and major improvements put in place in the United States, private and public, across manufacturing, educational, commercial, office and data centre, health care, amusement, lodging, public safety and religious buildings; roads, power plants and other civil works are excluded. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 748 billion in 2025, from 227 million square metres of floor-area-equivalent work at USD 3,300 a square metre, and at USD 1.01 trillion in 2035, a revenue CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 3.01%. The United States is 86.8% of North America in our global Nonresidential Building Construction Market report, the study sits in our construction materials coverage, and every figure follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Which U.S. nonresidential building type carries the most value, and which grows fastest?

Manufacturing buildings carry the most U.S. nonresidential building construction value, 29.5% of 2025, USD 220 billion. Office and data centre buildings grow fastest, 6.60% a year to USD 202 billion by 2035.

The 2025 values are the Census Bureau’s annual value put in place: manufacturing USD 220.4 billion, down 6.5%, educational USD 138.1 billion, commercial USD 122.0 billion, down 7.8%, and office USD 106.4 billion, up 1.9%, according to its release of 27 February 2026. Manufacturing leads because semiconductor, battery and pharmaceutical plants approved in 2022 to 2024 were still being built in 2025, but it grows only 0.60% a year because few new megaprojects follow them.

Office and data centre buildings, USD 106 billion, grow 6.60% a year because hyperscale owners such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta keep ordering data halls whose structure, power and cooling cost several times a normal office per square metre; conventional office towers add little. Educational buildings, USD 138 billion, are mostly public schools and universities and grow 2.40% a year on bond-funded replacement. Commercial and warehouse buildings, USD 122 billion, recover at 2.60% a year after the e-commerce warehouse glut.

Health care buildings, USD 69.1 billion, grow 3.60% a year as an older population needs outpatient centres and hospital towers. Amusement and recreation, USD 43.2 billion, lodging, USD 24.1 billion, and public safety and religious buildings, USD 24.4 billion, complete the U.S. nonresidential building mix. Building-type values for 2035 sum to USD 987 billion, 1.88% below the headline.

By owner, private owners put in place about USD 550 billion of the 2025 U.S. nonresidential building total and public owners about USD 198 billion, Douglas Insights calculates from the Census tables. The split differs sharply by type: public money paid for USD 113.0 billion of the USD 138.1 billion educational total, while private owners paid USD 89.7 billion of the USD 106.4 billion office total and USD 219.2 billion of the USD 220.4 billion manufacturing total, the February 2026 release shows. That is why public school and hospital work held up in 2026 while private factory work fell; it also explains why the U.S. nonresidential cycle now depends on a small number of private data centre owners whose capital budgets can change in a single earnings call.

Why does U.S. nonresidential floor area still grow 0.40% a year after the factory boom?

U.S. nonresidential floor-area-equivalent work grows 0.40% a year, from 227 million square metres in 2025 to 236 million in 2035. Five drivers add 1.70 points; data centres supply 0.70 points and health care 0.30.

Data centre and AI campuses: 0.70 points

Data centres add 0.70 points. HOCHTIEF, owner of Turner, the largest U.S. construction manager, said its data centre orders more than doubled over the 12 months to June 2026 and its backlog reached a record EUR 84.8 billion, in its half-year release of 27 July 2026; it expects Turner’s 2026 operational profit before tax at USD 1.40 billion to USD 1.46 billion, up 35% to 40%.

Health care and senior care: 0.30 points

Health care adds 0.30 points, as hospital systems replace ageing towers and move procedures into outpatient buildings near suburbs where older Americans live.

School and university replacement: 0.30 points

Education adds 0.30 points. Public educational construction was USD 113.0 billion in 2025, up 0.5%, the Census Bureau’s February 2026 release shows, and voter-approved bonds keep that pipeline steady.

Reshored and defence manufacturing: 0.20 points

Factory work adds 0.20 points over the decade, even after the 2026 drop, from defence, pharmaceutical and grid-equipment plants that U.S. buyers want built at home.

Energy retrofits: 0.20 points

Deep retrofits add 0.20 points as owners upgrade envelopes and heating systems to meet newer energy codes. The five contributions, 0.70 + 0.30 + 0.30 + 0.20 + 0.20, give 1.70 points before restraints.

What holds back U.S. nonresidential building construction: the manufacturing slump, labour or steel duties?

Three restraints remove 1.30 points from U.S. nonresidential building volume growth, leaving 0.40% a year. The manufacturing slump takes 0.70 points, labour shortages 0.40 points and steel and aluminium duties 0.20 points.

The manufacturing slump is the largest brake. Manufacturing building spending ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of USD 171 billion in August 2026, against USD 220 billion of value put in place in 2025, and its year-to-date total was 21.8% lower, according to the October 2026 Census release. Total private nonresidential spending was down 4.8% year to date while public nonresidential rose 1.2%. Douglas Insights removes 0.70 points over the decade, because fabs and battery plants finished in 2025 and 2026 are not replaced at the same scale.

Labour removes 0.40 points: electricians, pipefitters and steel erectors are the bottleneck on data centres and hospitals, so U.S. nonresidential schedules stretch rather than projects multiply. Steel and aluminium duties remove 0.20 points. Duties on imported steel and aluminium rose from 25% to 50% on 4 June 2025, according to the White House proclamation, which raises the cost of structural frames, joists and curtain-wall mullions and pushes marginal projects out.

Where in the United States is nonresidential building construction strongest, and why does the South lead?

The South holds the most U.S. nonresidential building construction, about USD 329 billion or 44.0% of 2025 value, Douglas Insights estimates, and grows fastest, 3.25% a year to USD 453 billion by 2035, on data centres and plants.

The South, USD 329 billion, combines the largest U.S. data centre clusters in Northern Virginia, Texas and Georgia with semiconductor and petrochemical plants in Texas and battery plants across the Southeast, and its population growth fills new schools and hospitals. Regional values are Douglas Insights estimates, because the Census Bureau publishes U.S. nonresidential building spending only at national level.

The West, USD 168 billion, grows 3.10% a year on Arizona chip fabs, Oregon and Nevada data centres and California hospital seismic upgrades. The Midwest, USD 142 billion, grows 2.40% a year: Ohio, Indiana and Michigan gained battery and chip projects, but several slowed in 2026, while Iowa and Illinois add data centres. The Northeast, USD 108 billion, grows 2.60% a year on hospitals, universities and life-science buildings in Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania. Regional values for 2035 sum to USD 1.00 trillion, 0.43% below the headline; in the data table the row labelled Global holds the U.S. total, USD 748 billion in 2025.

Who builds U.S. nonresidential buildings: Turner, Whiting-Turner, DPR or Clark?

Turner builds the most U.S. nonresidential building value, about 2.6% of 2025 work, USD 19.4 billion, Douglas Insights estimates. The five largest builders hold only about 7.6%, so U.S. nonresidential construction stays highly fragmented.

HOCHTIEF reported 2025 group sales of EUR 38.2 billion, new orders of EUR 52.6 billion and EUR 16.8 billion of new AI, digital and tech orders, 21% of its backlog, and said Turner was again recognised as the largest U.S. construction manager, in its 2025 results. Because Turner does not publish U.S. building revenue on its own, its share is a Douglas Insights estimate, as are the shares of privately held Whiting-Turner, DPR and Clark.

Data centre specialists such as Holder and DPR gain share fastest, while builders tied to manufacturing megaprojects, such as Kiewit and Bechtel, face a thinner U.S. nonresidential pipeline after 2026. Contractors’ equipment fleets are sized in our Construction Equipment Market report.

What does a square metre of U.S. nonresidential building cost in 2026?

A square metre of U.S. nonresidential building cost an average USD 3,300 in 2025 on Douglas Insights’ floor-area-equivalent blend, from about USD 1,300 for a warehouse to over USD 10,000 for a fitted data hall.

Costs per square metre are Douglas Insights estimates; the mix shift toward data halls and hospitals, both several times the cost of a warehouse, lifts the U.S. nonresidential average faster than materials inflation alone. Douglas Insights projects the average at USD 3,386 in 2026 and USD 4,266 by 2035, a 2.60% yearly rise.

Materials add their own pressure. The 50% steel and aluminium duties in force since 4 June 2025, set by the White House proclamation, raise the price of structural steel, metal deck and facade framing on every U.S. nonresidential job. Sealants, glazing and cladding costs are covered in our Building and Construction Sealants Market and Facade Market reports.

Which building energy codes and trade rules shape U.S. nonresidential construction?

Two rule sets shape U.S. nonresidential building construction: state adoption of the ASHRAE 90.1-2022 energy standard, with a 6 March 2026 certification deadline, and the 50% steel and aluminium duties since June 2025.

The Department of Energy (DOE) issued its determination on 6 March 2024 that ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022 saves 9.8% site energy, 9.4% source energy and 8.9% energy cost in commercial buildings, and set 6 March 2026 as the deadline for states to certify their commercial codes against it, according to energycodes.gov. States that adopt it require tighter envelopes, better lighting controls and more efficient mechanical systems in every new U.S. nonresidential building, adding cost per square metre but also retrofit work.

Trade rules are the second lever. The June 2025 proclamation doubled duties on imported steel and aluminium to 50%, according to the White House, so U.S. nonresidential builders buy more domestic steel at higher prices. Local building codes, based on the International Building Code adopted state by state, and fire, seismic and accessibility rules complete the regulation that U.S. nonresidential projects must meet before an occupancy permit is issued.

What if data centre orders slow or factories return: where does U.S. nonresidential building construction land in 2035?

The U.S. nonresidential building construction market ends 2035 between USD 867 billion and USD 1.17 trillion across our three cases, around a base of USD 1.01 trillion. Data centre demand and factory investment set the spread.

In the slower case AI capital spending pauses, data hall orders fall and manufacturing keeps shrinking after the 2026 drop. In the faster case data centre campuses keep doubling orders, defence and pharmaceutical plants revive factory work and public school bonds stay strong. One extra point of yearly floor-area growth adds USD 105 billion to 2035 U.S. nonresidential building value; one point less removes USD 95.8 billion.

Our 3.01% sits below the 3.71% North America rate and the 4.04% global rate in the Douglas Insights global model, because the United States starts the forecast from a manufacturing peak that Canada and Mexico did not have.

Douglas Exclusive: the U.S. Nonresidential Mix-Shift Ledger

The U.S. Nonresidential Mix-Shift Ledger is a Douglas Insights model built from 18 sourced inputs, the 2025 value and 2026 year-to-date change of 9 Census building categories, measuring how much the data centre boom offsets the manufacturing slump.

The finding, a Douglas Insights estimate: applying each category’s year-to-date change from the October 2026 Census release to its 2025 value from the February 2026 release points to U.S. nonresidential building spending about 6.7% lower in 2026, about USD 698 billion, against our USD 770 billion trend value. Office and data centre gains replace only about a quarter of the manufacturing loss. Douglas Insights treats 2026 as the trough: from about USD 698 billion, reaching USD 1.01 trillion in 2035 needs about 4.15% a year, which data halls, health care and a price leg of 2.60% can supply.

How does the methodology turn 227 million square metres into USD 748 billion of U.S. nonresidential building work?

Our methodology multiplies 227 million square metres of U.S. nonresidential floor-area-equivalent work in 2025 by an average USD 3,300 a square metre to reach USD 748 billion. Value comes from Census data; the cost blend from building-type estimates.

The model covers 4 Census regions, 8 building types and 2 owner types, and uses 64 data points, 22 sourced and 42 modelled. Arithmetic: 226.6 million x USD 3,300 = USD 748 billion; 747.8 x (1.0040 x 1.0260)^10 = 1,006, or USD 1.01 trillion. Floor area reaches 228 million square metres in 2026 and 236 million in 2035; cost per square metre reaches USD 3,386 in 2026.

Two cross-checks agree. First, USD 748 billion equals the sum of the nine Census building categories for 2025, which is 86.8% of the USD 862 billion North America row in our global nonresidential building model. Second, the Census private nonresidential total of USD 742 billion and public nonresidential total of USD 505 billion include power, transport and other civil works that this U.S. nonresidential building study excludes. AI tools help draft the text and automated checks test the arithmetic and links; the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as our editorial standards explain.

Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau Construction Spending, August 2026 (2026)
2. U.S. Census Bureau Construction Spending, December 2025 and annual 2025 (2026)
3. HOCHTIEF HOCHTIEF H1 2026 results press release (2026)
4. HOCHTIEF HOCHTIEF 2025 results (2026)
5. The White House Adjusting Imports of Aluminum and Steel into the United States (2025)
6. U.S. Department of Energy, Building Energy Codes Program Determinations: ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022 (2024)

What does the U.S. nonresidential building construction market include, and what is excluded?

The U.S. nonresidential building construction market includes the value put in place of new nonresidential buildings, additions and major improvements, private and public. Housing, highways, power plants, water systems and maintenance repairs are excluded.

The by-building-type split covers manufacturing, educational, commercial and warehouse, office and data centre, health care, amusement and recreation, lodging, and public safety and religious buildings. The by-owner split covers private and public owners, and the by-region split covers the South, West, Midwest and Northeast. Equipment installed inside buildings, such as servers, production lines and medical devices, is excluded from U.S. nonresidential building value; the building’s own power, cooling and mechanical systems are included. Engineered wood used in low-rise U.S. nonresidential buildings is covered in our Laminated Veneer Lumber Market report.