Fish Farming Market

Mowi weighed its largest farming cost and chose, on 22 December 2025, to keep producing salmon feed itself under a Skretting formulation, a deal it expects to save NOK 650 million (EUR 55 million) a year in net costs (Mowi announcement). The fish farming market covers the farm-gate value of every aquatic animal raised in ponds, sea pens, raceways and tanks: finfish, crustaceans, molluscs and minor species, with seaweed excluded. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 383.69 billion in 2025, which is 105.38 million tonnes of live-weight harvest multiplied by an average USD 3,641 per tonne. Value climbs to USD 555.16 billion by 2035, a revenue CAGR of 3.76% made of 1.48% tonnage growth and a 2.25% price leg. Output confirmation came from FAO on 16 June 2026: farmed aquatic animals passed 100 million tonnes for the first time in 2024 (SOFIA 2026 release). The model belongs to our food and beverages research and follows the published research methodology.

Why is farmed fish tonnage still climbing while the wild catch stalls?

Farmed fish tonnage grows 1.48% a year to 2035 because wild capture is flat near 92 million tonnes while per-person demand keeps rising. Fish farming already supplies 53% of aquatic animal output, so nearly every extra kilo eaten worldwide must come from ponds, pens and tanks.

Population and diet supply the largest share. Demand is not the constraint. FAO counts apparent consumption at 21.1 kg per person in 2023 and an estimated 21.3 kg in 2024, and farmed product already makes up over 59% of aquatic animal food (FAO). Douglas Insights credits this demand leg with 0.71 percentage points of the 1.48% volume growth. Hold consumption per head flat and fish farming still needs about 0.9 million extra tonnes a year just to feed new mouths.

Substitution for wild fish adds 0.46 points. Capture fisheries landed 92 million tonnes in 2024 against 103 million tonnes from fish farming, and FAO expects aquaculture to reach 119 million tonnes of the 214 million tonnes of aquatic animals projected for 2034. That 16% rise over ten years is a ceiling-limited wild catch handing growth to farmers. Trade pulls the same way: aquatic animal exports reached USD 184 billion, almost level with terrestrial meat. Over one-third of aquatic animal production now crosses a border, so a stalled trawler fleet in one ocean is replaced by fish farming capacity in another, often within two or three harvest cycles.

Better smolt and survival technology contributes 0.19 points. Mowi’s Haukå unit in Norway is built for 6.4 million post-smolts a year at about 700 grams, a NOK 600 million investment, and the group plans 20 million more post-smolts at four other sites. Bigger fish going to sea spend fewer months exposed to sea lice, so each licence yields more tonnes. Mowi harvested a record 149,911 tonnes gutted weight in the second quarter of 2026 (Mowi Q2 2026 report).

The Africa protein gap supplies the last 0.12 points. FAO puts aquatic food availability at 9.1 kg per person in Africa against 26.3 kg in Asia, a 17.2 kg gap that pond-raised tilapia and catfish are the cheapest way to close. Together the four drivers add to the 1.48% tonnage leg: 0.71 + 0.46 + 0.19 + 0.12. Fish farming growth is slower than the 21% rise of 2014 to 2024, but it is broad.

Which sea lice, disease and licence headwinds slow fish farming output?

Three headwinds remove 0.80 points from fish farming tonnage growth in the slower case. Fish health losses take 0.31 points, licence and site limits 0.27 points, and feed ingredient costs 0.22 points, cutting the volume leg from 1.48% to 0.68% a year.

Biology is the first drag on fish farming. Losses are uneven. In the second quarter of 2026 Chilean salmon supply fell 4.3% and Scottish supply 2.3%, while operating EBIT in Chile was EUR 0.34 per kg against EUR 1.86 in Norway (Mowi Q2 2026 report). Douglas Insights removes 0.31 points for mortality, sea lice treatment and algal blooms across salmon, shrimp and carp systems.

Licences are the second. Sea sites are full. Salmon producers expect industry supply growth of around 0% in the second half of 2026 and 0% to 2% in 2027 (Mowi Q2 2026 presentation), because new sea sites are scarce in Norway, Chile and Scotland. Douglas Insights takes 0.27 points off for permitting caps that also bind shrimp ponds in mangrove zones and cage farms on Asian reservoirs.

Feed cost is the third, worth 0.22 points. Fishmeal and fish oil still come partly from wild-caught fish, which FAO flags as a pressure point, and the 22 December 2025 Mowi decision to stay in feed production shows how much margin sits in that bill. When feed prices jump, smaller fish farming operators stock fewer fingerlings the following cycle.

Which species group makes the money in fish farming: shrimp, carps or salmonids?

Crustaceans make the most money in fish farming, with 28.6% of 2025 value, or USD 109.73 billion. Shrimp and crab fetch two to three times the farm-gate price of carp, while finfish groups together still hold 53.8% of value and most of the tonnage.

Crustaceans, worth USD 109.73 billion, lead because intensive shrimp ponds in Ecuador, India, Vietnam and Indonesia sell at USD 3,900 to USD 5,200 per tonne. Other finfish, at USD 82.11 billion, gathers pangasius, catfish, milkfish, snakehead and marine species such as sea bream and yellow croaker. Carps and other cyprinids hold USD 75.59 billion: the largest tonnage in fish farming, but at the lowest prices, so share sits at 19.7%. Molluscs add USD 43.36 billion from oysters, clams, scallops and mussels that need no feed. Salmonids, at USD 29.16 billion, carry only 7.6% of value despite their visibility, since about 2.8 million tonnes of salmon is small next to 100 million tonnes of total output. Other aquatic animals, such as sea cucumbers, frogs and turtles, take USD 24.17 billion.

Tilapia and other cichlids, at USD 19.57 billion, are the fastest-growing group at 5.21% a year. Tilapia converts plant-based feed efficiently, tolerates warm ponds and lake cages, and is the species most fish farming projects in Africa and Latin America start with, so it rides the 9.1 kg per person protein gap. Salmonids follow at 4.62%, helped by post-smolt systems and firm prices; carps trail at 2.58% as Chinese output plateaus.

Where is fish farming value concentrated, and how fast does Asia Pacific grow?

Asia Pacific holds USD 294.79 billion, or 76.8%, of 2025 fish farming value and grows 3.58% a year to USD 419.05 billion by 2035. FAO counts Asia at around 89% of farmed aquatic animal tonnage, a share diluted in value by low-priced carp.

Asia Pacific, the leader, rests on China, Indonesia, India, Vietnam and Bangladesh, the five largest producers. Europe follows with USD 33.07 billion growing 3.05%, a fish farming total dominated by Norwegian, Scottish and Faroese salmon plus Mediterranean sea bream and bass. Atlantic salmon supply from Europe reached 1,883 thousand tonnes gutted weight in 2025 against 850 thousand tonnes from the Americas (Mowi Q2 2026 presentation).

Latin America is worth USD 30.46 billion and grows 4.71% a year, on Ecuadorian shrimp, Chilean salmon and Brazilian tilapia. North America is the wildcard at USD 10.13 billion and 4.12% growth: the United States imports nearly 90% of its seafood, and policy now targets that USD 20 billion deficit. Middle East and Africa is the fastest-growing region at 6.28% a year, from USD 15.23 billion to USD 28.00 billion, because aquatic food availability of 9.1 kg per person in Africa leaves the most room for pond and cage expansion.

Which companies lead fish farming, from Norwegian salmon pens to tilapia lakes?

Mowi leads fish farming with an estimated 1.04% of 2025 global value, and the top three salmon farmers hold only 2.12%. Carp, shrimp and mollusc output comes from millions of small family farms rather than listed companies; salmon is the one concentrated corner.

Douglas Insights estimates Mowi’s farm-gate harvest value at about USD 4.0 billion, or 13.7% of salmonid value, from 559,000 tonnes gutted weight harvested in 2025, roughly 21% of world Atlantic salmon supply. Its 2026 guidance is 600,000 tonnes after selling 9,000 tonnes of Canada East farms for CAD 225 million (Mowi Q2 2026 presentation). Mowi increased its stake in Nova Sea from 49% to 95% in 2025, adding about 52,000 tonnes of harvest, and its December 2025 Skretting feed partnership is built to lift margins rather than volume (Mowi).

Salmon specialists

SalMar harvested 284,500 tonnes of salmon in 2025 across Norway, Iceland and offshore ocean farming, and its 81,800 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026 were 27% above the year before. Cermaq farms salmon in Canada, Chile and Norway and has bought Grieg Seafood’s operations in Finnmark, British Columbia and Newfoundland. Bakkafrost, from the Faroe Islands, builds its position on early certification: it was the first Atlantic salmon producer with farms certified to the new ASC Farm Standard.

Warm-water fish farming leaders

Regal Springs describes itself as the largest producer of premium farmed tilapia, raising fish in lakes in Indonesia, Mexico and Honduras under a vertically integrated model. Vinh Hoan calls itself the world’s largest producer of pangasius, built on vaccination protocols, water management and its own feed formulation, which now includes insect meal. Douglas Insights puts the combined share of these six fish farming companies at 2.79% of world value.

How much do buyers pay per tonne for farmed salmon, carp and shrimp?

Buyers paid an average USD 3,641 per tonne of live-weight fish farming output in 2025, from about USD 1,100 for pangasius to above USD 7,000 for salmon. The mix-led average rises 2.25% a year to USD 4,548 per tonne by 2035.

Atlantic salmon sets the top of the range. Carp sets the floor. The Norwegian reference price averaged EUR 6.61 per kg in the second quarter of 2026, up 6.2% on a year earlier, and Mowi earned operational EBIT of EUR 1.54 per kg (Mowi Q2 2026 report). Douglas Insights puts realised salmon farm-gate bands at USD 6,600 to USD 8,100 per tonne. Shrimp follows at USD 3,900 to USD 5,200, marine finfish such as sea bream at USD 5,000 to USD 6,200, tilapia at USD 1,800 to USD 2,300, carp at USD 1,600 to USD 2,100 and pangasius at USD 1,100 to USD 1,350.

Molluscs sell in a band of USD 900 to USD 1,900 per tonne in shell. The 2.25% price leg is mostly mix: salmonids, shrimp and tilapia grow faster than carp, so each tonne of fish farming output is worth a little more every year. Underlying like-for-like inflation adds roughly 1.1 points; mix supplies the remaining 1.15 points.

Why does feed conversion decide fish farming margins?

Feed takes an estimated 47% to 70% of fish farming cash cost. A 0.1 change in feed conversion ratio moves salmon cost by about USD 0.39 per kg and pangasius cost by about USD 0.07 per kg, enough to erase a thin pond margin.

Mowi Feed sold 147,307 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026 and expects 650,000 tonnes for the year, against 600,000 tonnes of harvest guidance (Mowi Q2 2026 report). That ratio of about 1.08 tonnes of feed per tonne of gutted salmon shows how efficient fed fish farming has become. Under the Skretting partnership the two Mowi feed factories stay in Mowi hands and are expected to contribute NOK 825 million of EBITDA in 2026 (Mowi).

Warm-water fish farming runs on cheaper, plant-heavy pellets at USD 480 to USD 660 per tonne, but conversion ratios of 1.5 to 1.6 mean feed is still the biggest line. Unfed molluscs and extensive carp polyculture escape that bill entirely, which is why they survive at farm-gate prices under USD 2,000 per tonne.

How do post-smolt units and recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) change fish farm economics?

Post-smolt units and recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) add an estimated 0.19 points a year to fish farming tonnage growth to 2035. They matter because a 700-gram post-smolt shortens sea time, cutting lice exposure and lifting output per licence by roughly 10% to 15%.

Mowi’s Haukå facility, at 6.4 million post-smolts a year and NOK 600 million, is one of three Norwegian units on which the group has spent about NOK 2 billion. Full land-based RAS for salmon still costs more per kilo: Douglas Insights models USD 6.20 per kg against USD 4.72 in sea net pens. Hybrid fish farming, with land-based post-smolts followed by a shorter sea phase, is where most new salmon capital goes, and Douglas Insights expects hybrid sites to keep that lead over full RAS through 2035.

Which ASC, US and EU rules must fish farms comply with by 2027?

Fish farms selling to certified retail chains must meet the ASC Farm Standard, mandatory from 1 May 2027. The United States and the EU push domestic output, and Douglas Insights expects certification to add 1% to 3% to cost per tonne for affected farms.

The Aquaculture Stewardship Council launched its Farm Standard in May 2025 with a two-year transition, and it covers health and welfare for every certified species, salmon and shrimp included (ASC). In the United States, Executive Order 14276 of 17 April 2025 directed an America First Seafood Strategy covering fishery and aquaculture products, citing a seafood trade deficit above USD 20 billion (White House).

In the EU, the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund (EMFAF) runs from 2021 to 2027 and co-finances national fish farming strategies. Animal-health rules for farmed fish also link to our Veterinary Pharmaceuticals Market report, since vaccine and lice treatment spend rises with stricter welfare criteria.

What if fish farming tonnage grows 0.68% or 2.20% a year to 2035?

Fish farming reaches USD 555.16 billion in 2035 in the base case. Value falls to USD 481.22 billion if tonnage grows only 0.68% a year with a 1.60% price leg, and rises to USD 622.58 billion if tonnage grows 2.20% with a 2.70% price leg.

The slower case strips out the 0.80 points listed under headwinds: a repeat of 2026 salmon licence stagnation, more disease losses and dearer fishmeal. Revenue then grows 2.29% a year. The faster case assumes African and Latin American tilapia and shrimp ponds expand at twice their recent pace, and revenue growth reaches 4.96%. A single extra point of yearly tonnage growth adds USD 57.20 billion to fish farming value in 2035.

Feed is the swing factor in both directions, which is why the 22 December 2025 Mowi decision on feed matters to the forecast (Mowi). Published forecasts for fish farming run from about 3.9% to 5.7% a year. Our 3.76% sits just below that band because it excludes equipment and feed revenue and counts farm-gate value only.

Douglas Exclusive: the species-by-system fish farming cost matrix

The species-by-system cost matrix is a Douglas Insights model built from 40 inputs. Each covers feed price, feed conversion ratio, feed share of cash cost and farm-gate price for each of 10 fish farming combinations across 5 species groups and 9 system types. Cash cost per kg equals feed price times conversion ratio divided by feed share. The margin column is farm-gate price less cash cost, before depreciation and licence charges.

The finding: fish farming margin depends more on system than on species. Location beats biology. Intensive shrimp ponds earn a 37.2% cash margin while shrimp RAS earns 19.3%, and salmon in sea net pens earns 34.4% against 23.4% on land. Pangasius ponds, at 8.2%, are the thinnest cell, so a 10% feed price rise turns them loss-making. Post-smolt plus sea pen keeps 33.5%, within one point of conventional pens while easing licence limits, which explains why capital is flowing there rather than into full RAS.

Which receipts and cross-checks stand behind the fish farming tonnage model?

The model multiplies 105.38 million tonnes of 2025 live-weight harvest by USD 3,641 per tonne, giving USD 383.69 billion of fish farming value at farm gate. The 2035 figure equals 122.06 million tonnes at USD 4,548 per tonne.

Coverage spans 5 regions, 38 producing countries, 7 species groups and 10 species-and-system combinations, from 186 data points: FAO production and value totals, company harvest volumes, reference prices and 4 published growth rates. The 2025 tonnage starts from FAO’s 103 million tonnes for 2024 and adds 2.31%, below the 4.5% yearly pace of 2022 to 2024. Average price starts from FAO’s USD 371 billion farm-gate value for 2024, or USD 3,602 per tonne, and adds 1.08%.

Three cross-checks follow. Segment 2035 values sum to USD 557.35 billion, 0.39% above the headline. Mowi’s 600,000 tonnes guidance is 21% of the 2.8 million tonnes salmon supply total. Multiply 1.0148 by 1.0225, subtract one, and the 3.76% revenue rate returns. Related cost work sits in our Livestock Methane Reduction Feed Additives Market study and our Cold Chain Temperature Monitoring Labels Market report on chilled seafood logistics.

Sources

1. FAO SOFIA 2026: global fisheries and aquaculture production reaches new highs (2026)
2. Mowi ASA Mowi enters into strategic feed partnership with Skretting/Nutreco (2025)
3. Mowi ASA Mowi Q2 2026 report (2026)
4. Mowi ASA Mowi Q2 2026 presentation (2026)
5. Mowi ASA Mowi opens new post-smolt facility in Haukå, Norway (2025)
6. Mowi ASA Mowi increases ownership of Nova Sea from 49% to 95% (2025)
7. Aquaculture Stewardship Council ASC Farm Standard (2025)
8. The White House Executive Order 14276: Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness (2025)
9. SalMar ASA SalMar investor relations (2026)
10. EUR-Lex Regulation (EU) 2021/1139 establishing the EMFAF (2021)