Incandescent Light Bulbs Market

A tungsten filament lamp converts roughly 90% of the power it draws into heat rather than light, the US Department of Energy notes, and that physical fact is why regulators have pushed it out of the living room and why ovens, brooders and bathrooms still want it. The Incandescent Light Bulbs market covers glass-envelope lamps that make light by heating a tungsten filament, including appliance, infrared heat, decorative, specialty signal and the general service lamps still sold where bans do not apply. Douglas Insights sizes 2025 revenue at USD 2.05 billion: 1.4826 billion lamps times an average factory-gate price of USD 1.38. Revenue falls to USD 1.57 billion by 2035, an annual rate of -2.62%. The US Department of Energy 45 lumens per watt backstop for general service lamps took effect on 25 July 2022 (Federal Register), the rule that removed most household incandescent bulbs from US shelves. The study belongs to our Consumer Goods and Retail coverage and follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Why are oven lamps, heat lamps and filament decor still behind incandescent light bulb demand?

Four exempt niches add 1.66 points a year to incandescent light bulb volume, against 5.86 points lost to bans and LED substitution, leaving a net unit leg of -4.20% a year. Appliance lamps, infrared heat lamps, decorative filament styles and specialty signal lamps keep 1.4826 billion lamps selling in 2025.

Appliance lamps: heat tolerance LEDs struggle to match

Appliance lamps contribute 0.62 percentage points of positive volume, the largest of the four. Oven cavity heat shortens the life of LED drivers, so a 15 W or 25 W incandescent appliance lamp remains the default part in cookers, microwaves and refrigerators. DOE lists “appliance lamps” among the 26 categories excluded from the general service lamp definition in its definitions rule effective 8 July 2022 (Federal Register). Douglas Insights values the appliance lamp segment at USD 648.6 million in 2025, the biggest single revenue pool in the incandescent light bulbs market.

Infrared heat lamps for livestock, food holding and therapy

Infrared and heat lamps add 0.48 points. A 250 W reflector heat lamp warms piglets and chicks in brooders, keeps restaurant pass food at serving temperature and dries paint, all duties where the 90% heat output is the product, not a loss. Infrared lamps are another of the excluded DOE categories, so farm and food-service buyers face no efficacy floor. The segment holds USD 458.3 million and slips only 1.21% a year.

Decorative filament styles and specialty signal lamps

Decorative and filament-style lamps add 0.35 points: hospitality venues and retailers still buy clear G-shape globes, candelabra and Edison-style bulbs for their warm glow and continuous spectrum, and DOE excludes G shape lamps of 5 inches or more in diameter. Specialty signal, marine and sign lamps add the last 0.21 points, since traffic signal, marine signal service and sign service lamps are all excluded categories with long qualification cycles. Together the four niches supply 1.66 points; the restraints below remove 5.86, and the two net to -4.20%. Douglas Insights counts the appliance line as the anchor: each new cooker or microwave carries one 15 W or 25 W lamp and replacements follow every few years of use, which keeps refrigerator and oven makers buying even as household general service sales collapse. Over ten years incandescent light bulb units fall from 1.4826 billion to about 0.965 billion, a loss of 517.3 million lamps a year by 2035.

Which headwinds cut incandescent light bulb volumes by 5.86 points a year?

Three headwinds remove 5.86 points a year from incandescent light bulb volume: general service bans spreading beyond the US and Europe, LED price parity in emerging markets, and lamp makers closing filament lines. Without them the four exempt niches would grow units 1.66% a year.

Bans on general service lamps remove 3.12 points. The US 45 lm/W backstop and the EU ecodesign regulation for light sources, Commission Regulation (EU) 2019/2020 of 1 October 2019 (EUR-Lex), already cover the largest high-income markets, and Douglas Insights expects more Asian, African and Latin American governments to adopt minimum efficacy rules by 2030.

LED substitution in unregulated countries removes 1.79 points. Residential LEDs use at least 75% less energy and last up to 25 times longer than incandescent lighting, per the US Department of Energy, so a household paying even USD 0.10 per kWh recovers an LED premium within months.

Supply exits remove 0.95 points. Signify reported on 24 October 2025 that its Conventional business “declined as anticipated, with an additional impact from a manufacturing site rationalization”, while group comparable sales fell 3.9% (Signify third quarter 2025 results). Fewer filament plants mean thinner ranges and fewer distributors stocking incandescent light bulbs.

Which incandescent lamp type makes the money, appliance or heat lamps?

Appliance lamps make the most money, 31.7% of 2025 incandescent light bulb revenue or USD 648.6 million, because every new oven, microwave and refrigerator needs one and replacement cycles are short. Infrared and heat lamps follow at 22.4%, and appliance lamps also decline slowest at -0.94% a year.

Appliance lamps hold USD 648.6 million on heat tolerance and original-equipment fitment, and reach USD 590.1 million by 2035. Infrared and heat lamps, worth USD 458.3 million, serve livestock brooders, food-holding stations and saunas, and ease to USD 405.8 million. General service incandescent lamps still bring in USD 435.8 million from countries without efficacy rules, but they shrink 8.17% a year to USD 185.8 million, the steepest fall of any segment. Decorative and filament-style lamps contribute USD 345.8 million, declining 2.38% a year as LED filament copies improve. Specialty signal, marine and sign lamps add USD 157.5 million, falling 3.05% as cities retrofit traffic signals.

No incandescent lamp type grows in our model; the most resilient is appliance lamps at -0.94% a year, because no oven maker has a cheap LED that survives cavity heat. Douglas Insights projects appliance lamps rising from 31.7% to about 37.6% of revenue by 2035.

Where do incandescent light bulbs still sell in volume, by region?

Asia Pacific sells the most incandescent light bulbs, USD 789.8 million or 38.6% of 2025 revenue, because filament lamp plants and appliance assembly both concentrate in China and India. The Middle East and Africa declines slowest at -1.45% a year, as many countries there still allow general service sales.

Asia Pacific slips 2.90% a year to USD 588.4 million by 2035. The Middle East and Africa, worth USD 392.8 million today, holds up best and ends at USD 339.4 million. North America brings in USD 313.0 million but falls 3.10% a year to USD 228.4 million, since the backstop leaves only exempt lamps on sale. Latin America contributes USD 300.8 million and declines 2.20% a year to USD 240.8 million. Europe, at USD 249.6 million, falls fastest at -3.66% a year to USD 172.0 million. The wildcard is Africa: if large markets adopt efficacy rules before 2030, the slowest-declining region becomes one of the fastest.

Which companies still make incandescent light bulbs and filament lamps?

Douglas Insights estimates the top three incandescent light bulb suppliers, Signify, LEDVANCE and Panasonic, hold 33.9% of 2025 revenue, a figure built from their conventional lamp positions. The rest is spread across Chinese filament plants and appliance-lamp specialists.

Signify leads with a 14.6% share in our estimate, built on its Conventional business; its 24 October 2025 results confirm that business is shrinking and that a manufacturing site was rationalized (Signify). LEDVANCE holds about 12.9% by our estimate, on specialty and appliance ranges. Panasonic, at 6.4%, rests on Asian distribution. GE Lighting holds 5.8% on North American retail reach for exempt lamps, and Satco, at 4.7%, on specialty and decorative lines. NVC Lighting, OPPLE Lighting and Foshan Lighting together hold 11.3%, built on Chinese factory scale. The remaining 50.4% sits with hundreds of smaller filament plants.

How much do buyers pay per incandescent bulb, from a 15 W oven lamp to a 250 W heat lamp?

Buyers pay about USD 0.35 to USD 0.60 per incandescent general service bulb at factory gate in unregulated markets, Douglas Insights estimates, while a 250 W infrared heat lamp fetches USD 4.50 to USD 9.00. The blended average across 1.4826 billion lamps is USD 1.38 in 2025.

Average incandescent light bulb prices rise 1.65% a year in our model, to about USD 1.63 by 2035, because the cheapest general service lamps disappear first and leave a mix of pricier specialty lamps. Retail mark-ups of 2.5 to 4 times factory price are common for single heat lamps sold through farm stores.

Which rules ban or exempt incandescent general service lamps?

Two rules set the pace for incandescent light bulbs: the US 45 lm/W general service lamp backstop, effective 25 July 2022, and EU Regulation 2019/2020 for light sources. Filament general service bulbs sit below that efficacy floor, which is why the backstop removed them from US shelves.

The US definitions rule, effective 8 July 2022, excludes 26 lamp categories from the general service lamp definition, including appliance, black light, bug, colored, infrared, marine, mine service, plant light, sign service, silver bowl, showcase and traffic signal lamps (Federal Register). Those exclusions define almost all of the USD 2.05 billion that remains. The EU regulation was adopted on 1 October 2019 under the ecodesign Directive 2009/125/EC (EUR-Lex) and applies across the single market, where Douglas Insights counts Europe at USD 249.6 million of incandescent revenue.

How does tungsten filament physics shape incandescent lamp life and price?

A tungsten filament wastes 90% of input energy as heat, and LEDs last up to 25 times longer, so incandescent light bulbs survive only where heat output or a continuous filament spectrum is the point. Those two figures explain the whole 1.4826 billion lamp market.

Designers can raise filament temperature for more light, but evaporation of tungsten then shortens life sharply. In a brooder or food-holding station that heat is useful work, which is why 250 W infrared lamps keep their place. For buyers, the trade-off is simple: an incandescent bulb is cheap to buy, dear to run and short-lived, and the continuous filament spectrum is the feature LED copies still imitate.

What does the incandescent light bulb forecast to 2035 look like if exemptions narrow?

The base case lands incandescent light bulb revenue at USD 1.57 billion in 2035; a slower path ends at USD 1.30 billion and a faster one at USD 1.86 billion. The legs are -4.20% volume and 1.65% price in the base, -5.6% and 1.2% slower, -3.0% and 2.1% faster.

The slower case assumes regulators narrow the appliance and decorative exemptions and that India and large African markets adopt efficacy floors by 2028. The faster case assumes exemptions stay as written in the 25 July 2022 US backstop and EU rules, and that heat-lamp demand from poultry and pig farming holds. Lifting the annual unit leg by one point adds USD 171.7 million to 2035 revenue. Rival published forecasts run from a decline of 3.68% to growth of 5.8% a year; our -2.62% sits near the bottom because we model the bans explicitly rather than counting LED filament lamps as incandescent.

Douglas Exclusive: the Incandescent Exemption Ledger

The Incandescent Exemption Ledger is a Douglas Insights model built from 31 inputs: the 26 lamp categories excluded in the DOE definitions rule and our 5 segment growth rates. It maps each surviving incandescent light bulb revenue pool to the exemption that keeps it legal in the US, and records how exposed it is to a narrower rule.

The finding: exempt lamp lines carry USD 1.61 billion, or 78.7% of 2025 incandescent light bulb revenue, and that share rises to 88.2% by 2035. General service lamps lose USD 250.0 million over the decade, more than every exempt line combined. The incandescent market is becoming an exemption business, and any revision of the 26 excluded categories is the single largest risk to the base case.

How the model turns 1.4826 billion incandescent lamps into revenue?

The model multiplies 1.4826 billion incandescent lamps by USD 1.38 to give USD 2.05 billion for 2025. Units come from 42 countries and five lamp types; prices come from five price bands weighted by unit mix.

Unit change of -4.20% and price growth of 1.65% give (0.958 x 1.0165) minus 1, or -2.62% after rounding. Volume in 2035 is 0.965 billion lamps at USD 1.63. Cross-check one: the five segment values for 2035 sum to USD 1.57 billion, within 0.1% of the total. Cross-check two: regions reconcile to the global row within USD 0.1 million in both 2025 and 2035. Cross-check three: a published incandescent bulb estimate near USD 1.5 billion for 2024 sits 27% below our figure, because it uses a narrower product scope.

What should incandescent lamp buyers and makers plan for before 2030?

Incandescent lamp buyers should secure appliance and heat-lamp supply first, since those two lines hold USD 1.11 billion of revenue and depend on fewer plants each year. Appliance makers and oven brands should qualify a second filament source within 12 months.

Douglas Insights reckons a farm distributor holding 6 months of 250 W heat-lamp stock avoids most shortage risk. Makers should exit general service lines in step with bans and keep specialty capacity. Related lighting coverage includes the Aircraft Exterior Lighting Market, the IP65 and IP66 LED Damp Proof Luminaires Market and the Smart Home Market, where connected LED bulbs replace 60 W filament lamps. By 2035 the market ships about 0.965 billion incandescent light bulbs a year.

Sources

1. US Department of Energy LED lighting (2025)
2. Federal Register Energy Conservation Standards for General Service Lamps (backstop) (2022)
3. Federal Register Definitions for General Service Lamps (2022)
4. EUR-Lex Commission Regulation (EU) 2019/2020 (2019)
5. Signify Signify third quarter results 2025 (2025)