Melamine Market

China XLX Fertiliser sold 138,000 tonnes of melamine in 2025, up 6% on exports “particularly in the EU market”, at an average RMB 5,299 a tonne, down 7%, and said the Chinese industry’s operating rate “remained below 50%”, its annual results of 27 March 2026 show, while OCI’s Geleen plant sold only 62.9 kt, down 37%, its 2025 annual report shows. The melamine market covers melamine (C3H6N6), made from urea and sold as a white crystalline powder for melamine-formaldehyde (MF) and melamine-urea-formaldehyde (MUF) resins, laminates, wood adhesives, coatings, moulding compounds, flame retardants and melamine foam. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 1.86 billion in 2025, from about 2.05 million tonnes at an average USD 905 a tonne, and at USD 2.81 billion in 2035, a 4.23% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The study sits beside our Europe Wood Product Market, Asia Pacific Wood Product Market and Kitchen Tools Market reports inside our specialty chemicals coverage, and every figure follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Which melamine application uses the most: laminates, wood adhesives or flame retardants?

Decorative laminates use the most, 37.0% of 2025 melamine value or USD 686.4 million, Douglas Insights estimates. Melamine flame retardants grow fastest, at 7.6% a year to USD 308.8 million by 2035.

Laminates lead because decor paper impregnated with MF resin is the hard, washable face of nearly every kitchen worktop, wardrobe door, laminate floor and melamine-faced chipboard panel. About 760,000 tonnes of melamine went into laminates and decorative papers in 2025, a Douglas Insights estimate. Wood adhesives, USD 519.5 million, come next: adding melamine to urea-formaldehyde glue makes MUF resin, which resists moisture and emits less formaldehyde, the property European panel makers now need.

Flame retardants grow fastest, at 7.6% a year, because melamine cyanurate and melamine polyphosphate are halogen-free and pass fire tests in polyamide connectors, cable sheathing, intumescent coatings and electric-vehicle battery housings. Surface coatings, USD 204.1 million, grow 4.0% with automotive and coil coatings that use melamine cross-linkers. Moulding compounds and tableware, USD 167.0 million, grow only 2.6% as food-contact rules tighten. Foam, textile finishes and other uses grow 5.2%. Application values for 2035 sum to USD 2.82 billion, 0.39% above the USD 2.81 billion headline.

How does melamine demand split by buyer and end market?

Resin makers and panel producers buy about 72.0% of 2025 melamine tonnes, about 1.48 million tonnes, Douglas Insights estimates. Furniture and interiors are the final end market for about 58.0% of value, about USD 1.08 billion.

Most melamine never reaches a consumer as melamine. Resin makers such as panel groups with captive glue lines, impregnators of decor paper and independent resin producers buy it as a powder in 25 kg bags or 1-tonne big bags, react it with formaldehyde and sell it on inside a laminate, panel or coating. Compounders of flame retardants and moulding powders take about 16.0%, about 328,000 tonnes, coatings formulators about 8.0% and foam and textile makers the remaining 4.0%, all Douglas Insights estimates.

By final end market, furniture and interiors take 58.0% of value, construction products such as flooring, wall panels and acoustic foam 22.0%, about USD 408.2 million, automotive and electrical 12.0%, about USD 222.6 million, and housewares and other uses 8.0%, about USD 148.4 million. The split explains why melamine tracks furniture sales and housing completions more closely than it tracks fertiliser markets, even though nearly every melamine plant sits beside a urea plant.

What drives melamine growth: wood-based panels, Asian housing, flame retardants or coatings?

Melamine consumption grows 3.20% a year in our base case, from about 2.05 million tonnes in 2025 to 2.81 million tonnes in 2035. Four drivers add 4.10 gross points; restraints remove 0.90.

Wood-based panels and furniture: 1.50 points

Wood-based panels are the largest driver, worth 1.50 points. China produced 349.17 million cubic metres of wood-based panels in 2024, up 3.9%, with particleboard up 12.6% and fibreboard down 5.9%, the China Wood-Based Panel Industry Report 2025 of the China National Forest Products Industry Association and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration’s planning institute shows, as reposted by the Liaoning Forestry Bureau on 25 September 2025. Panel output in European Panel Federation (EPF) member countries rose 3.0% to 59.587 million cubic metres in 2025, EUWID reported from the EPF annual report on 26 June 2026. Particleboard is the panel most often faced with melamine paper, so its double-digit Chinese growth lifts laminate demand directly.

Indian and Southeast Asian housing: 1.00 point

Housing outside China adds 1.00 point. Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals (GSFC), India’s main producer, said “melamine demand from key sectors—laminates, MDF, and plywood—remains stable” while cheap Chinese imports weighed on prices, its results release of 20 May 2025 states. Douglas Insights estimates India consumed about 135,000 tonnes in 2025 and grows 6.5% a year, as modular kitchens, ready-to-assemble furniture and medium-density fibreboard (MDF) plants spread to smaller cities. Southeast Asian furniture exporters in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia add about 90,000 tonnes of demand, growing 5.5% a year, Douglas Insights estimates.

Halogen-free flame retardants: 0.90 points

Flame retardants add 0.90 points. Melamine accounts for about 165,000 tonnes in melamine cyanurate, polyphosphate and intumescent systems in 2025, a Douglas Insights estimate, growing more than twice as fast as laminates as electric vehicles, charging equipment and data-centre cabling move away from brominated additives. XLX said its 2025 melamine gross margin rose to 38% from 27% even as prices fell, its filing of 27 March 2026 shows, a sign that export grades still earn a premium.

Coatings and melamine foam: 0.70 points

Coatings and foam add the last 0.70 points. BASF launched Basotect Dark EcoBalanced, the first dark grade of its melamine resin foam, for building acoustics, made with 100% green electricity and biowaste feedstock on a mass-balance basis, its release of 3 November 2025 states. Summed, 1.50 + 1.00 + 0.90 + 0.70 = 4.10 points, a Douglas Insights estimate; after 0.90 points of restraints the 3.20% volume leg times the 1.00% price leg gives the 4.23% revenue rate.

What holds back melamine: Chinese property, formaldehyde limits or REACH listing?

Three restraints remove 0.90 points a year from melamine consumption growth: the Chinese property slump takes 0.40 points, tighter formaldehyde limits 0.30 points and the REACH substance-of-concern listing 0.20 points, Douglas Insights estimates.

Chinese property is the sharpest drag. XLX said weak real-estate demand kept pressure on prices in 2025, and its average melamine price fell 7% to RMB 5,299 a tonne, its 2025 results show; with an industry operating rate below 50%, Chinese plants sell surplus tonnes abroad instead of closing. Douglas Insights estimates Chinese domestic melamine use grew only about 1.5% in 2025, while exports grew faster.

Formaldehyde limits take 0.30 points. Commission Regulation (EU) 2023/1464 caps formaldehyde released from wood-based articles and furniture at 0.062 mg/m3 and from other articles at 0.080 mg/m3, with 36 months from entry into force on 6 August 2023 for articles, the Official Journal text sets out, so the limit has applied since 6 August 2026. Some panel makers switch to MUF with more melamine, which helps; others move to formaldehyde-free isocyanate glue, which removes melamine, and Douglas Insights counts the net effect as a drag. The REACH listing takes the final 0.20 points, because some brand owners now ask suppliers to avoid substances on the Candidate List.

Where is melamine consumed most: Asia Pacific, Europe or North America?

Asia Pacific consumes the most, about USD 1.08 billion or 58.0% of 2025 melamine value. The Middle East and Africa grow fastest, at 5.4% a year to USD 219.7 million by 2035, on Gulf panel plants and export capacity.

Asia Pacific leads on volume because China makes and uses most of the world’s wood-based panels, about 349 million cubic metres a year, and because Chinese melamine sells near USD 737 a tonne, against well over USD 1,000 in Europe and North America, Douglas Insights estimates at RMB 7.19 to the US dollar. Its value grows 4.6% a year to USD 1.69 billion, led by India and Southeast Asia rather than China. Japan, with Mitsui Chemicals and Nissan Chemical, is a mature buyer.

Europe, USD 371.1 million, grows only 3.0% a year: panel output is rising again, but local melamine production has shrunk. Grupa Azoty halted melamine production at Puławy on 4 July 2024, citing gas costs, carbon costs and imports, its announcement states, and production “has not been resumed”, its release of 30 May 2025 says. North America, USD 185.5 million, grows 3.8% behind high tariff walls. The Middle East and Africa grow 5.4%, and Latin America 4.3% on Brazilian and Mexican furniture. Regional values sum to USD 1.93 billion in 2026, 0.01% above the headline, and USD 2.82 billion in 2035, 0.29% above it.

Who makes melamine, and which plants have stopped?

China XLX sold 138,000 tonnes in 2025, about 6.7% of world consumption, a Douglas Insights calculation, and OCI’s Geleen plant 62.9 kt, about 3.1%. Puławy and Proman’s Trinidad plant are idle.

XLX is the rare producer that discloses volume, revenue and margin: melamine revenue was RMB 730.2 million in 2025, and new capacity is being prepared at its Zhundong base in Xinjiang. OCI agreed to sell OCI Ammonia Holding, its Rotterdam ammonia terminal and distribution arm, to Agrofert for EUR 290 million, and “continues to evaluate strategic options for its production facility in Geleen”, its release of 24 November 2025 states, so one of Europe’s main melamine sites has an uncertain future. Qatar Melamine Company runs a 60,000-tonne plant on the Eurotecnica high-pressure process, its company page shows.

Proman paused its Point Lisas melamine plant, initially for two years, citing “continued unfavourable conditions” and US duties of 154.28%, Newsday reported on 12 January 2026. Other makers include LAT Nitrogen in Linz and Piesteritz in Germany, Borealis, Mitsui Chemicals, Nissan Chemical, Sichuan Golden-Elephant, Henan Junhua and Shandong Holitech, which publish no melamine volumes; together the Chinese producers hold well over half of world capacity, a Douglas Insights estimate.

What does a tonne of melamine cost, and how do urea and gas move it?

A tonne of melamine cost about USD 905 on a world-average basis in 2025, Douglas Insights estimates, from about USD 737 at XLX’s average to about USD 2,470 implied for the US market. The price leg adds 1.00% a year.

The spread is the widest of any bulk chemical we cover. XLX’s RMB 5,299 is about USD 737 at RMB 7.19 to the dollar. US apparent consumption was 115.76 million pounds worth USD 129.7 million in 2023, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) report of March 2025 shows, or about USD 1.12 a pound and USD 2,470 a tonne. European prices sit between, near USD 1,300 a tonne, a Douglas Insights estimate, after the EU’s old minimum import price of EUR 1,152 a tonne was replaced by ad valorem duties in February 2025.

Feedstock sets the floor. About three tonnes of urea go into one tonne of melamine. The World Bank’s urea price averaged USD 423 a tonne in 2025, up from USD 338 in 2024, and is forecast at USD 675 in 2026 and USD 500 in 2027, while European gas rose from USD 11.0 to USD 12.0 per million British thermal units and is forecast at USD 15.0 in 2026, its Commodity Markets Outlook of April 2026 shows. Douglas Insights holds the price leg at 1.00% because Chinese surplus caps any pass-through; the average reaches about USD 914 in 2026 and USD 1,000 in 2035.

How do REACH, formaldehyde rules and food-contact law regulate melamine?

Melamine is a REACH substance of very high concern since January 2023, classed as a suspected carcinogen from 23 November 2023, and was recommended for the Authorisation List on 18 November 2025. Food-contact plastics face new rules from March 2025.

The chemical layer is the heaviest. Melamine was identified as a substance of very high concern for persistence and mobility after the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) Member State Committee of 13-15 December 2022, and its harmonised classification as Carc. 2 and STOT RE 2 under Regulation (EU) 2022/692 applied from 23 November 2023, the Cefic Melamine Sector Group sets out. ECHA then recommended melamine for the REACH Authorisation List on 18 November 2025; use as an intermediate, which covers resin making, is exempt, and the European Commission has yet to decide.

The product layer is newer. Commission Regulation (EU) 2025/351 amends the plastics food-contact Regulation (EU) 10/2011 with purity rules and repeat-use testing, in force from 16 March 2025, with older stock allowed after 16 September 2026, per the Official Journal. For melamine tableware that means three migration tests with no rise across cycles. The formaldehyde limits of Regulation (EU) 2023/1464, covered above, shape the resin side. Douglas Insights expects no REACH restriction on melamine itself before 2030.

What if Chinese surplus persists or panel demand booms: how large is melamine in 2035?

The melamine market ends 2035 between USD 2.31 billion and USD 3.38 billion across three cases, around a USD 2.81 billion base. Chinese surplus and panel demand set most of the spread.

In the slower case Chinese property stays weak, operating rates stay below 50% and European panel makers move to formaldehyde-free glue, taking 1.20 points off volume and 0.80 points off price. In the faster case Indian furniture and electric-vehicle flame retardants grow faster and plant closures in Europe and Trinidad tighten supply, adding 1.10 points to volume and 0.80 points to price. One extra point of yearly revenue growth adds about USD 281.3 million to 2035 value, and one point less removes about USD 258.1 million, Douglas Insights estimates.

Company signals bracket the base. XLX’s volume grew 6% and its margin widened, while OCI’s volume fell 37% and two Western plants went idle. Our 4.23% sits between the Chinese exporter’s growth and the Western producers’ decline.

Douglas Exclusive: the Melamine Duty Wall Ledger

The Melamine Duty Wall Ledger is a Douglas Insights model built from 10 inputs: 6 government or official documents and 4 company statements. It tracks the duties each exporting country faces in the US and EU, and what they do to trade flows.

The duty rates come from the US International Trade Administration’s case pages for Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar and Trinidad and Tobago and for India, and from Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/325, which set duties of 12.0% for XLX, 44.9% for Sichuan Golden-Elephant, 47.6% for Shandong Holitech, 49.0% for Henan Junhua and 65.2% for others from 20 February 2025.

The finding, a Douglas Insights estimate: at XLX’s USD 737 a tonne plus 12.0% duty, Chinese melamine lands in the EU near USD 825 before freight, still below European cost when gas is near USD 12 per million British thermal units. In the US, the lowest wall is Qatar at 41.91% and the Netherlands at 53.50%, so US buyers pay more than three times the Chinese price. The ledger shows two separate markets: a duty-protected US market where Cornerstone is the only local maker, and an open European market where Chinese exporters with low duty rates take share from Geleen and Puławy.

How does the methodology turn 2.05 million tonnes into USD 1.86 billion?

Our methodology multiplies about 2.05 million tonnes of melamine consumed in 2025 by a world-average USD 905 a tonne to reach USD 1.86 billion, then grows volume 3.20% and price 1.00% a year.

The model covers 6 applications and 5 regions, using 54 data points, 20 sourced and 34 modelled. Volume comes from panel output, laminate and adhesive loadings, flame-retardant use and producer sales; price comes from company averages, trade values and duty-adjusted spreads, all Douglas Insights estimates. Arithmetic: 2.05 million tonnes x USD 905 = USD 1.86 billion; USD 1.86 billion x (1.0320 x 1.0100)^10 = USD 2.81 billion. Volume reaches about 2.12 million tonnes in 2026 and 2.81 million tonnes in 2035.

Two cross-checks agree. First, XLX’s 138,000 tonnes and RMB 730.2 million of revenue give RMB 5,291 a tonne, matching its stated average. Second, the US volume of about 52,500 tonnes in 2023 is about 2.6% of our world tonnes but, at USD 2,470 a tonne, about 7.0% of world value, with Canada and Mexico making up most of the rest of North America’s 10.0% share. AI tools help draft the text and automated checks test the arithmetic and links; the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as our editorial standards explain.

Sources

1. China XLX Fertiliser (HKEX filing) China XLX 2025 annual results (2026)
2. OCI Global OCI Global 2025 annual report (ESEF) (2026)
3. OCI Global OCI announces sale of OCI Ammonia Holding to Agrofert (2025)
4. Grupa Azoty Grupa Azoty Pulawy halts melamine production (2024)
5. Grupa Azoty Pulawy Q1 2025 results release (2025)
6. Newsday (Trinidad and Tobago) Proman pauses melamine production in Pt Lisas (2026)
7. QAFCO Qatar Melamine Company (2025)
8. Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals GSFC Q4 FY2024-25 media release (2025)
9. BASF Basotect Dark EcoBalanced launch (2025)
10. International Trade Administration Melamine from Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Qatar and Trinidad and Tobago: AD/CVD orders (2025)
11. International Trade Administration Final determinations: melamine from India (2025)
12. US International Trade Commission Melamine from India, Publication 5603 (2025)
13. Official Journal of the European Union Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/325, melamine from China (2025)
14. World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts, April 2026 (2026)
15. Liaoning Provincial Forestry and Grassland Bureau China Wood-Based Panel Industry Report 2025 (repost) (2025)
16. EUWID (citing EPF annual report) European wood-based panel production up 3% (2026)
17. Cefic Melamine Sector Group Melamine regulatory status (2025)
18. European Chemicals Agency Four substances recommended for REACH authorisation (2025)
19. Official Journal of the European Union Commission Regulation (EU) 2023/1464 on formaldehyde (2023)
20. Official Journal of the European Union Commission Regulation (EU) 2025/351 on plastic food-contact materials (2025)

What counts in the melamine study, and what is excluded?

The study counts melamine sold as a chemical, valued at producer price, by 6 applications and 5 regions. Downstream MF and MUF resins, laminates, foam and finished tableware are valued only through their melamine content.

The regions are Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, the Middle East and Africa and Latin America. Melamine made and used inside one company counts at market price. Related figures appear in our Electric Vehicles Polymers Market and Resilient Flooring Market studies.