Asia Pacific Retail and Wholesale Market

China’s retail sales of consumer goods grew only 1.1% to CNY 37,000.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026, against 3.7% for all of 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) release of 20 October 2026 shows, after the state cut its consumer trade-in subsidy from CNY 300 billion to CNY 250 billion. The Asia Pacific retail and wholesale market covers the gross sales of retail stores and online retailers of goods, excluding catering, plus the sales of wholesale traders that buy and resell goods, across Asia Pacific. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 34.10 trillion in 2025, USD 10.09 trillion of retail and USD 24.01 trillion of wholesale trade, and at USD 54.21 trillion in 2035, a 4.74% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The study sits beside our U.S. Retail and Wholesale Market, Asia Pacific IoT in Warehouse Management Market and India Pharmaceutical Drug Market reports inside our consumer goods and retail coverage, and every figure follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Which trade type carries the most retail and wholesale value: machinery wholesale, industrial materials wholesale or store-based retail?

Wholesale of machinery, vehicles and electronics carries the most, 25.3% of 2025 value or USD 8.64 trillion, Douglas Insights estimates. Online retail grows fastest, at 7.6% a year to USD 4.73 trillion by 2035.

Wholesale makes up 70.4% of the market because goods change hands several times between factory and shop, and because large trading companies resell coal, steel, chemicals and grain between businesses. Machinery, vehicles and electronics lead within wholesale, at about 36% of wholesale value, a Douglas Insights estimate, as factories buy equipment and components through distributors. That trade type grows 5.0% a year, faster than energy, metals and industrial materials at 3.6%, whose volumes follow construction and heavy industry.

Store-based retail, USD 7.82 trillion, grows 3.4% a year as supermarkets, convenience stores and department stores lose share to online sellers. Online retail, USD 2.27 trillion, includes CNY 13,092.3 billion of online sales of physical goods, about USD 1.82 trillion, which grew 5.2% in 2025 and reached 26.1% of retail sales of consumer goods, the NBS release of 20 January 2026 shows; it grows 7.6% a year. Wholesale of food, medicines and consumer goods, USD 7.44 trillion, grows 5.2%. Values for 2035 sum to USD 53.37 trillion, 1.55% below the USD 54.21 trillion headline.

How do retail and wholesale sales split between wholesale and retail trade, and between stores and online selling?

Wholesale trade takes about USD 24.01 trillion, 70.4% of 2025 value, and retail trade USD 10.09 trillion, 29.6%, Douglas Insights estimates. Online sellers take about 22.5% of retail sales of goods.

The wholesale-to-retail ratio, about 2.4 to 1, is far higher than in North America because long distributor chains remain common. Japan’s commercial sales reached JPY 634.974 trillion in 2025, of which wholesale JPY 477.463 trillion, up 1.3%, and retail JPY 157.512 trillion, up 1.4%, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) commercial dynamics survey of 30 January 2026 shows, a ratio of 3.0 to 1. In China, wholesale enterprises above the designated size sold CNY 119.2 trillion in 2024, against CNY 17.7 trillion for retail enterprises above that size, the China Statistical Yearbook 2025 table shows.

By channel, online sales of physical goods made up 26.1% of Chinese retail sales of consumer goods in 2025, and about 25.7% in the first nine months of 2026, by Douglas Insights calculation from the NBS figures of CNY 9,506.0 billion online and CNY 37,000.1 billion total. Across the region we estimate online retail at USD 2.27 trillion, 22.5% of retail sales of goods, rising to about 30% by 2035. By buyer, Douglas Insights estimates that about 35% of wholesale value sells to retailers and the rest to manufacturers, builders, hospitals, restaurants, governments and exporters.

What drives retail and wholesale growth: new stores, online selling, tax cuts or industrial demand?

Real trade volume rises 3.40% a year in our base case, from USD 34.10 trillion at 2025 prices to USD 47.64 trillion in 2035. Four drivers add 4.30 gross points; restraints remove 0.90.

Store expansion in fast-growing economies: 1.10 points

Store expansion is the largest driver, worth 1.10 points. Avenue Supermarts, which runs DMart, lifted standalone revenue 15.9% to Rs 66,968 crore in the year to 31 March 2026 and ended it with 500 stores after adding 85, its results of 2 May 2026 show. Reliance Retail’s gross revenue rose 11.8% to Rs 370,026 crore across 20,160 stores, Reliance Industries’ release of 24 April 2026 shows. Vietnam’s retail sales of goods and services passed VND 7,000 trillion in 2025, up 9.2%, VnEconomy reported on 6 January 2026 from national statistics data.

Online selling: 1.20 points

Online selling adds 1.20 points. Shopee’s gross merchandise value rose 26.8% to USD 127.4 billion in 2025 on 13.9 billion orders, Sea Limited’s results of 3 March 2026 show. Coupang’s net revenues rose 14% to USD 34.5 billion, with product commerce at USD 29.6 billion, its results of 26 February 2026 show, and JD.com’s product revenues rose 10.3% to RMB 1,023.8 billion, its results of 5 March 2026 show. Each point of online share moves about USD 101 billion of yearly retail sales between channels, a Douglas Insights estimate.

Consumption tax cuts: 0.80 points

Tax cuts add 0.80 points. India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council replaced four main rates with two, 5% and 18%, plus 40% for a few luxury goods, from 22 September 2025, the Press Information Bureau states. A shampoo moving from 18% to 5% falls about 11.0% in shelf price and a television moving from 28% to 18% about 7.8%, by Douglas Insights calculation. Japan’s cabinet approved cutting the consumption tax on food from 8% to 1% for two years from April 2027, subject to the Diet, Reuters reported on 5 August 2026.

Industrial and trading demand: 1.20 points

Industrial demand adds the last 1.20 points. Japan’s wholesale sales rose 6.4% to JPY 43.041 trillion in September 2026, against 2.3% for retail, the METI preliminary release of 30 October 2026 shows, and China’s wholesale and retail trade value added rose 5.0% in real terms in 2025, the NBS GDP release of 19 January 2026 shows. Summed, 1.10 + 1.20 + 0.80 + 1.20 = 4.30 points; after 0.90 points of restraints the 3.40% volume leg times the 1.30% price leg gives the 4.74% revenue rate.

What holds back retail and wholesale trade: smaller subsidies, ageing shoppers or export duties?

Three restraints remove 0.90 points a year from real trade growth: smaller consumer subsidies take 0.40 points, ageing and shrinking populations 0.30 points and duties on exports 0.20 points, Douglas Insights estimates.

Smaller subsidies bite first. China funded its 2025 consumer goods trade-in programme with CNY 300 billion of ultra-long special treasury bonds, Xinhua reported on 27 June 2025, and released CNY 250 billion for 2026, the last CNY 62.5 billion batch by 30 September, Guangming Daily reported. China’s retail sales rose only 1.1% in September 2026, to CNY 4,243.3 billion, the NBS October release shows, which is why we take 0.40 points off volume.

Ageing populations take 0.30 points. Japan’s retail sales grew only 1.4% in 2025, the METI survey shows, and South Korea’s 26 major retailers saw offline sales rise only 0.4% while online sales rose 11.8%, Kyunghyang Shinmun reported on 28 January 2026 from Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources data. Export duties take the last 0.20 points: a 10% United States tariff under Section 122 followed the Supreme Court’s ruling of 20 February 2026 against tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the opinion and a Cozen O’Connor note show, which weighs on export traders.

Where in Asia Pacific do retail and wholesale sales grow fastest: China, India, Japan or Southeast Asia?

China sells the most, about USD 23.33 trillion or 68.4% of 2025 value. India grows fastest, at 9.4% a year to USD 4.54 trillion by 2035, as organised chains and online sellers replace small shops, Douglas Insights estimates.

China’s USD 23.33 trillion combines CNY 44,322.0 billion of retail sales of goods, up 3.8% in 2025 per the NBS January release, and about CNY 123.4 trillion of wholesale sales, a Douglas Insights estimate that grows the yearbook’s CNY 119.2 trillion 2024 figure by 3.5%. Japan, USD 4.25 trillion, converts the METI totals at JPY 149.57 to the dollar, the 2025 average in the Federal Reserve’s G.5A release, and grows 2.3% a year. India, USD 1.85 trillion, and Southeast Asia, USD 1.90 trillion, are Douglas Insights estimates built from store counts, company sales and national retail data such as Vietnam’s 9.2% rise.

South Korea, USD 1.20 trillion, grows 3.3% as online sales rise but offline sales stall. Australia and New Zealand, USD 773.9 billion, combine retail turnover of about AUD 455 billion a year from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ last Retail Trade release, for June 2025 at AUD 37.9 billion a month, New Zealand retail of about NZD 26 billion a quarter from Stats NZ and an estimated USD 420 billion of wholesale. The Rest of Asia Pacific, led by Taiwan and Hong Kong, grows 3.6%. Country values sum to USD 35.61 trillion in 2026, 0.30% below the headline, and USD 53.17 trillion in 2035, 1.91% below it.

Who sells the most goods, and how fragmented is retail and wholesale trade?

JD.com holds about 0.42% of 2025 trade value, a Douglas Insights estimate, on RMB 1,023.8 billion of product revenue, ahead of AEON at 0.21% and Woolworths Group at 0.14%. The seven companies below hold about 1.1%.

AEON’s operating revenue rose 5.7% to JPY 10,715.3 billion in the year to February 2026, its results of 9 April 2026 show, about USD 71.6 billion at the 2025 average rate. Woolworths Group’s sales rose 3.6% to AUD 71.5 billion in the 52 weeks to 28 June 2026, its results of 26 August 2026 show, and Wesfarmers’ revenue rose 3.4% to AUD 47.3 billion, with Bunnings at AUD 20.4 billion, its results of 27 August 2026 show.

Marketplaces are counted through the merchants that sell on them, not their own revenue. Alibaba’s revenue rose 3% to RMB 1,023.7 billion in its year to 31 March 2026, with customer management revenue up 5% to RMB 343.9 billion, its results of 12 May 2026 show, and PDD Holdings’ revenue rose 10% to RMB 431.8 billion in 2025, its results of 25 March 2026 show; both are fees on goods that third-party sellers sell. China alone had 291,006 wholesale enterprises above the designated size in 2024, the yearbook shows, and they, smaller traders and millions of shops share the remaining 98.9%, a Douglas Insights estimate.

How fast do trade prices rise, and what do tax cuts do to shelf prices?

Trade prices rise 1.30% a year in our base case, Douglas Insights estimates, at constant 2025 exchange rates, because Chinese goods prices are flat while Indian, Southeast Asian and Australian prices keep rising.

All values convert at 2025 average rates from the Federal Reserve’s G.5A release: CNY 7.1875, JPY 149.5686, INR 87.1468 and KRW 1,421.40 to the dollar, and USD 0.6450 per Australian dollar. Holding rates fixed keeps the price leg about goods prices. Our 1.30% leg takes the price index from 1.000 in 2025 to about 1.013 in 2026 and 1.138 in 2035.

Tax changes move shelf prices once. India’s GST cut from 28% to 18% lowers the tax-inclusive price of affected goods by about 7.8% and a cut from 12% to 5% by about 6.3%, by Douglas Insights calculation; Japan’s proposed food rate of 1% against 8% would cut food shelf prices by about 6.5% from April 2027. We treat those as level shifts that lift volume rather than lasting changes to the price leg.

What rules govern retail and wholesale trade, from subsidies to sales tax and import duties?

Three policy layers govern trade in the forecast: consumer subsidies such as China’s CNY 250 billion 2026 trade-in programme, sales taxes such as India’s two-rate GST from 22 September 2025, and import duties on goods sold to the United States.

Subsidies set the pace in China. The 2025 trade-in programme was linked to more than CNY 2.6 trillion of sales and more than 360 million purchases, including over 11.5 million cars and 129 million home appliances, the Ministry of Commerce said, gov.cn reported on 1 January 2026. The 2026 programme released its full CNY 250 billion in four quarterly batches, per Guangming Daily.

Taxes set the price. India’s two-rate GST keeps a few tobacco products at old rates until compensation loans are repaid, the Press Information Bureau notes, and Japan’s food tax cut needs approval from the Diet before April 2027. Import duties set export demand: after the Supreme Court ruling, a 10% Section 122 tariff applies for up to 150 days, according to Cozen O’Connor, which keeps exporters and their trading houses uncertain on pricing into 2027.

What if subsidies fade or tax cuts lift demand: how large is the retail and wholesale market in 2035?

The market ends 2035 between USD 43.70 trillion and USD 65.18 trillion across three cases, around a USD 54.21 trillion base. Chinese demand and Indian store growth set most of the spread.

In the slower case China ends consumer subsidies after 2026, its retail growth stays near 1% and export duties rise, taking 1.40 points off volume and 0.80 points off price. In the faster case Chinese household spending recovers, India keeps double-digit chain growth and Japan’s food tax cut lifts volumes, adding 1.20 points to volume and 0.70 points to price. One extra point of yearly revenue growth adds about USD 5.40 trillion to 2035 value, and one point less removes about USD 4.96 trillion, Douglas Insights estimates.

Recent data bracket the base case. Japan’s wholesale sales rose 6.4% in September 2026 while China’s retail sales rose 1.1% in the first nine months, the sources above show. Our 4.74% sits between fast-growing Indian and Southeast Asian chains and a Chinese market whose consumer subsidies are shrinking.

Douglas Exclusive: the Trade-in Leverage Ledger

The Trade-in Leverage Ledger is a Douglas Insights model built from 10 inputs: 8 government statistics, policy documents or official news reports and 2 company filings. It measures the sales linked to each yuan of consumer subsidy.

The finding, a Douglas Insights estimate: each yuan of the 2025 subsidy was linked to about CNY 8.67 of sales, and those CNY 2.6 trillion equal 5.2% of 2025 retail sales of consumer goods. At the same ratio the smaller 2026 pool supports about CNY 2.17 trillion, CNY 0.43 trillion less, or about 0.86% of 2025 retail sales, roughly a third of the fall in Chinese retail growth from 3.7% to 1.1%.

The ledger changes how to read 2027. If Beijing holds the programme at CNY 250 billion, the drag fades and Chinese retail growth returns toward 3%; if it ends the programme, a further CNY 2.17 trillion of linked sales is at risk, close to 4.3% of the retail base, and the slower case comes into view.

How does the methodology turn USD 10.09 trillion of retail and USD 24.01 trillion of wholesale into a forecast?

Our methodology adds 2025 retail sales of goods, USD 10,093.5 billion, to wholesale sales, USD 24,009.5 billion, to reach USD 34,103.1 billion at 2025 exchange rates, then grows real volume 3.40% and prices 1.30% a year.

The model covers 5 trade types, 2 trades, 2 channels and 7 countries or sub-regions, using 72 data points, 30 sourced and 42 modelled. China and Japan come from NBS, the China Statistical Yearbook and METI; other countries combine statistics releases, company sales and store counts, all Douglas Insights estimates where no national total exists. Arithmetic: USD 34,103.1 billion x (1.0340 x 1.0130)^10 = USD 54,211.7 billion, the USD 54.21 trillion headline; 2026 is USD 35,721.0 billion.

Two cross-checks agree. First, Japan’s 3.0 to 1 wholesale-to-retail ratio from METI and China’s 6.7 to 1 ratio for enterprises above the designated size both sit above our regional 2.4 to 1, as they should, because our total also counts small shops below the size threshold and smaller economies with shorter supply chains. Second, JD.com’s USD 142.4 billion of product revenue at CNY 7.1875 equals about 6.3% of our online retail line, in line with its place behind marketplace sellers. AI tools help draft the text and automated checks test the arithmetic and links; the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as our editorial standards explain.

Sources

1. National Bureau of Statistics of China National economy, September 2026: retail sales (2026)
2. National Bureau of Statistics of China National economy 2025: retail and online sales (2026)
3. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistical Yearbook 2025, table 15-1 (2025)
4. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Commercial Dynamics Statistics, 2025 (2026)
5. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Commercial Dynamics Statistics, September 2026 (2026)
6. Press Information Bureau, India GST Council 56th meeting: two-rate structure (2025)
7. gov.cn (Ministry of Commerce) 2025 trade-in programme results (2026)
8. Federal Reserve Board Foreign exchange rates, annual 2025 (G.5A) (2026)
9. JD.com JD.com 2025 results (2026)
10. Woolworths Group (ASX) Woolworths Group F26 results (2026)
11. Reliance Industries Reliance Industries Q4 FY2025-26 release (2026)
12. Coupang Coupang fourth quarter 2025 results (2026)

What counts in the retail and wholesale study, and what is excluded?

The study counts gross sales of goods by retail stores, online retailers and wholesale traders, at the prices they charge, converted at 2025 average exchange rates. Catering, services, marketplace fees and manufacturers’ own sales offices are excluded.

Because wholesalers sell part of their goods to retailers, the total measures trade turnover rather than final demand; Douglas Insights estimates the overlap at about USD 8.40 trillion, 35% of wholesale sales. Catering revenue, CNY 5,798.2 billion in China in 2025, is excluded, as are fuel taxes collected separately. Warehouse technology appears in our Asia Pacific IoT in Warehouse Management Market report, the North American comparison in our U.S. Retail and Wholesale Market study and Indian medicine spending in our India Pharmaceutical Drug Market report.