The retail and wholesale market covers the gross trade margin, or value added, that retailers, online sellers, wholesalers and motor dealers earn between the producer and the final buyer; it includes wholesale trade, store-based retail, non-store and online retail, and motor vehicle trade and repair. Douglas Insights puts that margin pool at USD 11.0 trillion in 2025 (USD 11001.30 billion in dataset units), built as 446.3 million trade workers × USD 24,650 of value added per worker. Growth of 4.81% a year, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of our base case, takes the pool to USD 17.6 trillion by 2035. Consolidation keeps moving upstream: on 4 September 2025 Home Depot and its subsidiary SRS Distribution completed the acquisition of GMS, a specialty building products distributor, for about USD 5.5 billion. The work belongs to our consumer goods and retail research and follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.
Why are online fulfilment and B2B distribution adding retail and wholesale workers?
Workforce growth of 1.15% a year comes from three sources: online fulfilment adds 0.46 points, young labour forces entering trade in Africa and South Asia add 0.44 points, and business-to-business (B2B) distribution adds 0.25 points. Together they lift retail and wholesale employment from 446.3 million in 2025 to 500.4 million by 2035.
Online selling needs pickers, packers and drivers. The US Census Bureau reported adjusted e-commerce sales of USD 340.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, 17.1% of all US retail sales, up 12.2% on a year earlier while total retail grew 6.7%. Walmart says its global eCommerce sales rose 24% in its latest fiscal year. A fulfilment centre swaps store hours for warehouse hours rather than deleting them, so retail and wholesale headcount keeps climbing as the channel shifts toward Online marketplaces. Every parcel that leaves a fulfilment centre also needs a sorter at a carrier hub, and those jobs sit outside trade, so our count stays conservative. Douglas Insights assigns 0.46 points of the 1.15-point volume leg to this shift, or roughly 21 million of the 54.1 million workers the sector adds by 2035.
Population is the second engine. The International Labour Organization (ILO) counts 420.5 million jobs in wholesale and retail trade for 2020, 13.2% of global employment, with 239.1 million in Asia-Pacific and 64.2 million in Africa. A kiosk, a market stall or a family shop is often the first paid work for a young adult, so trade employment tracks the number of people reaching working age. Our model grows the trade workforce 1.2% a year from that 2020 base to 446.3 million in 2025, and credits young labour forces with 0.44 points of yearly volume growth through 2035.
Distribution networks are the third engine, and they hire as they consolidate. The GMS purchase, closed on 4 September 2025 at USD 110 per share in cash after about 79.5% of shares were tendered, adds drywall, ceilings and steel framing branches to the SRS Distribution network serving professional contractors. McKesson, the largest pharmaceutical wholesaler in the US, lifted its latest annual revenues 12% to USD 403.4 billion. Branch networks need drivers, counter staff and inside sales teams. Foodservice follows the same pattern: Sysco reports USD 81.4 billion of annual sales delivered by its own truck fleets to restaurants and institutions. All of this means Business-to-business distribution earns 0.25 points of the volume leg in our model. The three engines sum to exactly 1.15 points.
Which headwinds hold back retail and wholesale trade margins?
Three headwinds remove 0.71 points of yearly growth from the retail and wholesale market. Checkout and warehouse automation takes 0.31 points off workforce growth, marketplace fee pressure takes 0.22 points off margin per worker, and informality takes 0.18 points off productivity. Without them the CAGR would sit near 5.52% rather than 4.81%.
Automation is the largest drag. Self-checkout lanes, electronic shelf labels and goods-to-person robots let one store or distribution centre move more cartons with fewer paid hours, a trend tracked in the Warehouse Automation Market report. Douglas Insights models automation trimming 0.31 points a year from trade headcount growth, which by 2035 leaves about 15.5 million jobs uncreated. The workers who remain earn more value added each, which is why the margin-per-worker leg still grows 3.62% a year.
Marketplaces squeeze the margin that third-party sellers keep. Amazon reported annual net sales of USD 716.9 billion in its latest results, USD 426.3 billion of them in North America, and every seller on a platform of that scale pays commissions and fulfilment fees out of its own gross margin. We remove 0.22 points from margin growth for this transfer from many small retailers to a few platforms.
Informality is the slowest headwind to fade. Value added per trade worker in our Middle East and Africa block averages only USD 7,122, against USD 132,787 in North America, because cash stalls and family shops carry little capital per person. That gap holds the global average at USD 24,650 and removes 0.18 points a year from productivity growth.
Which trade type makes the money: wholesale, store-based or online retail?
Wholesale trade makes the most money, with 47.2% of the 2025 retail and wholesale margin pool, or USD 5.19 trillion, because distributors earn on goods that pass through several hands before a consumer sees them. Non-store and online retail is the fastest segment, growing 9.71% a year to USD 3.59 trillion by 2035.
| Trade type | Share of 2025 margin | 2025 value | Growth a year, 2026 to 2035 | 2035 value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale trade | 47.2% | USD 5.19 trillion | 4.47% | USD 8.04 trillion |
| Store-based retail | 31.4% | USD 3.45 trillion | 3.36% | USD 4.81 trillion |
| Non-store and online retail | 12.9% | USD 1.42 trillion | 9.71% | USD 3.59 trillion |
| Motor vehicle trade and repair | 8.5% | USD 935 billion | 3.58% | USD 1.33 trillion |
Wholesale trade holds USD 5.19 trillion because a pallet of Pharmaceuticals, Fuel or Building materials is marked up at the importer, the master distributor and the branch before it reaches a retailer or a contractor. Store-based retail holds USD 3.45 trillion, a 31.4% share, since Food and grocery, Apparel and footwear and Electronics still change hands mostly through Physical stores. Non-store and online retail holds USD 1.42 trillion, 12.9% of the pool, and its 9.71% rate is the fastest because e-commerce takes share from stores in every region; parcel volumes show up in the Padded Mailers Market. Motor vehicle trade and repair holds USD 935 billion, an 8.5% share, and grows 3.58% a year as dealer workshops service an ageing car fleet.
Where does the retail and wholesale margin pool sit by region?
North America holds the largest share of the retail and wholesale margin pool, USD 4.05 trillion or 36.8% of the 2025 total, because value added per trade worker there reaches USD 132,787. Middle East and Africa grows fastest, at 8.11% a year, as young workers enter formal shops and distribution.
North America rises from USD 4.05 trillion to USD 5.96 trillion at 3.93% a year; in the United States the Bureau of Economic Analysis puts retail trade at 5.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) and wholesale trade at about 6.3%. Europe rises from USD 2.29 trillion to USD 3.10 trillion at 3.08%; Eurostat counted 5.7 million distributive trade enterprises employing 29.4 million people in the European Union (EU) in 2019, with EUR 1.28 trillion of value added. Asia Pacific grows from USD 3.48 trillion to USD 6.32 trillion at 6.14%, adding the largest absolute amount, USD 2.84 trillion, because the ILO places 239.1 million of the world’s trade jobs there. Latin America, the wildcard, moves from USD 640 billion to USD 1.05 trillion at 5.07%; currency swings can move its dollar value by more than its real growth in a single year. Middle East and Africa climbs from USD 541 billion to USD 1.18 trillion at 8.11%, the fastest rate, as modern grocery and pharmacy chains formalise trade that today runs through cash stalls.
Who dominates retail and wholesale gross profit: Walmart, Amazon or McKesson?
Walmart leads, with gross profit of USD 171.0 billion equal to 1.55% of the USD 11.0 trillion retail and wholesale margin pool, a Douglas Insights estimate based on its disclosed 24.2% gross profit rate. No firm comes near controlling trade: the leader holds under 2% of the margin pool.
| Company | Latest disclosed figure | What the position is built on |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart | Revenue USD 713.2 billion; gross profit USD 171.0 billion | Supercentres, Sam’s Club and eCommerce up 24% |
| Amazon | Net sales USD 716.9 billion | Online marketplaces, third-party seller fees and fulfilment |
| McKesson | Revenues USD 403.4 billion, up 12% | Pharmaceuticals distribution to pharmacies and hospitals |
| Costco | Net sales USD 269.9 billion; 914 warehouses | Membership fees of USD 5.32 billion and bulk buying |
| Home Depot | Sales USD 164.7 billion; 2,359 stores | Do-it-yourself stores plus SRS and GMS pro distribution |
| Sysco | Sales USD 81.4 billion; gross margin 18.4% | Foodservice wholesale to restaurants and institutions |
Walmart’s USD 713.2 billion of revenue rests on store density plus fast-growing eCommerce, and Sam’s Club alone sold USD 93.0 billion. Amazon’s USD 716.9 billion includes cloud revenue, so its trade share is smaller than its sales suggest. McKesson’s USD 403.4 billion shows how thin wholesale margins carry huge pass-through sales. Costco’s 914 warehouses run on membership income of USD 5.32 billion rather than wide mark-ups. Home Depot’s USD 164.7 billion now spans retail and B2B distribution through SRS. Sysco’s USD 81.4 billion and 18.4% gross margin set the benchmark for foodservice wholesale, including cold-chain grocery lines watched in the Cold Chain Temperature Monitoring Labels Market.
How much trade margin do retailers and wholesalers keep per dollar of sales?
Retailers in the retail and wholesale market keep about 20 to 25 cents of gross margin per dollar of sales, and broadline wholesalers about 15 to 20 cents. Walmart’s gross profit rate is 24.2% and Sysco’s 18.4%. Across all trade workers, value added averages USD 24,650 per person in 2025.
Margin per worker, the price leg of this model, rises 3.62% a year to USD 35,177 by 2035. Regional bands are wide: Douglas Insights estimates USD 132,787 per trade worker in North America, USD 43,208 in Europe, USD 18,935 in Latin America, USD 13,755 in Asia Pacific and USD 7,122 in Middle East and Africa. Eurostat’s EU figures imply about EUR 43,537 of value added per person employed in distributive trades in 2019, close to our European band. Costco shows the low-margin extreme: membership fees of USD 5.32 billion equal only 1.97% of its USD 269.9 billion of net sales, yet they carry most of its profit. Sysco’s gross profit of USD 15.0 billion on USD 81.4 billion of sales sits between grocery retail and pharmaceuticals wholesale, where mark-ups run in low single digits.
What does the GMS deal signal for wholesale distribution of building materials?
The USD 5.5 billion GMS purchase, completed on 4 September 2025, shows large retailers buying wholesale distribution to reach professional contractors. Wholesale trade grows 4.47% a year in our retail and wholesale model, and Home Depot sells USD 164.7 billion a year through its stores and more than 1,250 SRS locations.
The Home Depot release says GMS supplies drywall, ceilings, steel framing and remodelling materials, and that about 79.5% of GMS shares were tendered at USD 110 each. The logic is cross-selling: a roofer who buys shingles from SRS can now buy wallboard from the same group. Douglas Insights counts this move inside the 0.25 points of volume growth assigned to B2B distribution, and we expect more retailer-led wholesale deals in building materials, foodservice and medical supplies through 2035.
How many retail and wholesale jobs sit in micro-enterprises and family shops?
Most of them: the ILO finds that micro-enterprises with one to nine workers hold more than half of wholesale and retail trade jobs in most countries it studied. Of 420.5 million trade jobs, women hold 46% and men 53%, and trade employs 15.5% of the world’s working women.
In 12 of the 18 countries the ILO statistical brief analysed, own-account workers and contributing family workers made up more than half of the retail trade workforce. Trade also employs 11.7% of working men, so the sector matters more for women’s jobs than for men’s. Those small shops explain the low USD 7,122 and USD 13,755 per-worker values in our Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific bands, and their slow formalisation is the 0.18-point productivity headwind in this retail and wholesale model.
Is the GTIN barcode a reliable counter of retail and wholesale transactions?
Only roughly: more than 10 billion Global Trade Item Number (GTIN) scans a day, about 3.65 trillion a year, imply about USD 3.01 of margin per scan. Scans undercount wholesale, where whole pallets move under one code.
GS1 UK says over 2 million companies and 1 billion products carry GS1 barcodes, and that retail adopted the barcode in April 1973. The code itself is physical: bar widths encode digits that a laser or camera reads in a fraction of a second. For forecasting, scan counts help in grocery and Electronics, where nearly every item is coded, and help less in informal trade, where many goods carry no GTIN at all.
Which payment-term rules govern grocery buyers in retail and wholesale trade?
Directive (EU) 2019/633 caps payment at 30 days for perishable agri-food products and 60 days for other agri-food products when a larger retail or wholesale buyer purchases from a smaller supplier. Its protection runs across five turnover bands, from EUR 2 million up to EUR 350 million.
The unfair trading practices directive required member states to transpose it by 1 May 2021 and to apply it from 1 November 2021. A supplier with turnover under EUR 2 million is protected against any buyer above EUR 2 million, and a supplier between EUR 150 million and EUR 350 million is protected against buyers above EUR 350 million. Public authorities buying food are covered whatever their size. For retail and wholesale grocers, the rule shortens working-capital cycles and removes the option of funding stock with long supplier credit; we fold that cost into the 0.22-point margin pressure, not a separate charge. GS1 barcode standards remain voluntary but are required in practice by most large retailers.
What if checkout automation and marketplaces reshape the 2035 trade margin pool?
Our base path ends 2035 at USD 17.6 trillion on 1.15% workforce growth and 3.62% margin-per-worker growth. A slower path at 0.55% and 2.90% yields USD 15.5 trillion, and a faster path at 1.70% and 4.31% yields USD 19.9 trillion for the retail and wholesale market.
The slower case, at 3.47% a year, assumes automation doubles its drag and marketplace fees keep rising. The faster case, at 6.08% a year, assumes Africa and South Asia formalise trade faster and margins per worker climb toward European levels. A single extra point of yearly workforce growth, held for a decade, adds USD 1.82 trillion to the 2035 value. Outside forecasts for retail sales or wholesale turnover cluster between 5.05% and 6.9% a year; our 4.81% sits below them because value added grows more slowly than gross sales when platforms and robots take a slice of every transaction. Deals such as the GMS acquisition of 4 September 2025 push toward the faster case: if more retailers buy distributors, the wholesale trade rate of 4.47% climbs.
Douglas Exclusive: the Trade Margin Ledger
The Trade Margin Ledger is a Douglas Insights model built from 35 inputs. They comprise 6 ILO workforce counts, 7 Eurostat figures, 2 Bureau of Economic Analysis shares, 3 Census e-commerce figures, 12 company disclosures and 5 regional productivity assumptions. It records, for each trade type, its share of the retail and wholesale margin pool against its share of trade workers.
| Trade type | Share of margin | Share of workers (our estimate) | Workers (million) | Margin per worker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale trade | 47.2% | 21.4% | 95.5 | USD 54,368 |
| Store-based retail | 31.4% | 58.9% | 262.9 | USD 13,141 |
| Non-store and online retail | 12.9% | 6.3% | 28.1 | USD 50,475 |
| Motor vehicle trade and repair | 8.5% | 13.4% | 59.8 | USD 15,636 |
The finding: a wholesale worker generates 4.1 times the margin of a store-based retail worker, USD 54,368 against USD 13,141. Online retail sits close to wholesale at USD 50,475, which is why the shift online raises the average margin per worker even as stores lose share. Eurostat data point the same way: wholesale produced 49.7% of EU distributive trade value added with 32.6% of its employment in 2019, while retail produced 38.1% with 55.3%. The ledger is our count, not an official register.
How the model turns 446.3 million trade workers into a USD 11.0 trillion margin pool?
We multiply 446.3 million retail and wholesale workers by USD 24,650 of value added each to reach USD 11.0 trillion for 2025. The worker count grows the ILO’s 420.5 million jobs by 1.2% a year, and five regional productivity bands sum exactly to the global total.
The model uses 35 data points across five regional blocks, with national detail for the United States and the 27 EU member states. Growth legs: 1.15% a year in workers and 3.62% in margin per worker give 4.81%, so USD 11.0 trillion becomes USD 17.6 trillion, with 500.4 million workers at USD 35,177 each by 2035. Cross-check one: the Census Bureau’s latest annual surveys put US retail sales at USD 7.04 trillion and wholesale sales at USD 11.4 trillion; a 20% blended margin on that USD 18.4 trillion gives USD 3.68 trillion, and our North America figure of USD 4.05 trillion sits 9.9% above it, a gap Canada and Mexico fill. Cross-check two: our 2025 workforce is 6.1% above the ILO’s 2020 count, in line with five years of labour-force growth. Cross-check three: Walmart’s gross profit of USD 171.0 billion divided by our pool gives 1.55%, consistent with a fragmented industry.
How this report is built
- Every figure carries a confidence grade in the fact sheet above, and the working model ships with every licence.
- Five regional models sum to the global figure, with country tables in the Excel model.
- The next scheduled review of this study is April 2027.
- Licence holders receive it as a maintained tab in the Excel model.
Sources
- International Labour Organization Statistical profile of the wholesale and retail trade sector (2023)
- US Census Bureau Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2nd Quarter 2026 (2026)
- The Home Depot Home Depot and SRS Distribution complete acquisition of GMS (2025)
- EUR-Lex Directive (EU) 2019/633 on unfair trading practices (2019)
- Eurostat Key figures on European business: distributive trades (2022)
- GS1 UK The barcode at 50 (2023)
- Walmart (SEC 8-K) Walmart fiscal 2026 fourth quarter earnings release (2026)
- McKesson (SEC 8-K) McKesson fiscal 2026 results (2026)
- Costco (SEC 8-K) Costco fiscal 2025 results (2025)
- Amazon Amazon fourth quarter 2025 results (2026)
- Sysco (SEC 8-K) Sysco fiscal 2025 fourth quarter results (2025)
- The Home Depot (SEC 8-K) Home Depot fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 results (2026)
Inside the 212-page report
01Executive summary12 sections
The market in one view
- 1.1Market snapshot, 2025 and 2035
- 1.1.1Market size, 2025
- 1.1.2Forecast, 2035
- 1.1.3Growth rate, 2026–2035
- 1.2Growth decomposition
- 1.2.1Volume growth (million workers)
- 1.2.2Value per unit growth
- 1.3Key findings
- 1.4Segment highlights
- 1.5Regional highlights
- 1.6Competitive highlights
- 1.7Douglas Insights verdict
02Scope and definitions17 sections
Trade margin as value added across ISIC trade
- 2.1Market definition
- 2.2Inclusions and exclusions
- 2.2.1Wholesale trade
- 2.2.2Retail trade
- 2.2.3Motor vehicle trade
- 2.3Segmentation
- 2.3.1By trade type
- 2.3.2By goods
- 2.3.3By channel
- 2.3.4By region
- 2.4Years considered
- 2.4.1Base year 2025
- 2.4.2Forecast 2026–2035
- 2.5Currency and units
- 2.5.1Value in USD million
- 2.5.2Volume in million workers
- 2.6Who this report is for
03Research methodology16 sections
Bottom-up: million workers × value per unit
- 3.1Bottom-up market model
- 3.1.1Volume base, 2025 (million workers)
- 3.1.2Value per unit
- 3.1.3Forecast legs to 2035
- 3.2Top-down cross-checks
- 3.3Data triangulation
- 3.4Sources
- 3.4.1Regulators and statistics offices
- 3.4.2Company filings and results
- 3.4.3Trade and industry bodies
- 3.4.412 primary sources cited
- 3.5Confidence grading
- 3.6Assumptions and limitations
- 3.6.1Workforce build
- 3.6.2Productivity bands
- 3.6.3Cross-checks
04Growth drivers3 sections
Online fulfilment, labour forces and B2B distribution
- 4.1E-commerce labour
- 4.2Workforce entry
- 4.3Distribution consolidation
05Headwinds3 sections
Automation, marketplace fees and informality
- 5.1Checkout automation
- 5.2Platform fees
- 5.3Informal trade
06Trade type analysis3 sections
Wholesale, store-based, online and motor trade
- 6.1Segment values
- 6.2Growth rates
- 6.3Margin per worker
07Goods and channel analysis3 sections
Food, fuel, pharmaceuticals, apparel, building materials, electronics
- 7.1By goods
- 7.2By channel
- 7.3Channel shift
08Margin and pricing analysis3 sections
Gross margin per dollar and per worker
- 8.1Retail margins
- 8.2Wholesale margins
- 8.3Regional bands
09Deal tracker3 sections
Retailer moves into wholesale distribution
- 9.1Home Depot and GMS
- 9.2Pro channel
- 9.3Outlook
10Workforce structure3 sections
Micro-enterprises, gender and informality
- 10.1Enterprise size
- 10.2Women in trade
- 10.3Formalisation
11Regulation and standards3 sections
Payment terms and product identification
- 11.1Directive (EU) 2019/633
- 11.2GS1 GTIN standards
- 11.3Compliance cost
12Market size and forecast, 2025–20355 sections
Global value, volume and value per unit
- 12.1Market value, 2025–2035
- 12.2Volume (million workers), 2025–2035
- 12.3Value per unit, 2025–2035
- 12.4Year-on-year growth
- 12.5Growth decomposition
13Retail and Wholesale market, by trade type13 sections
4 segments, value 2025–2035
- 13.1Overview and share, 2025 and 2035
- 13.2Wholesale trade
- 13.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 13.2.2Growth outlook
- 13.3Store-based retail
- 13.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 13.3.2Growth outlook
- 13.4Non-store and online retail
- 13.4.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 13.4.2Growth outlook
- 13.5Motor vehicle trade and repair
- 13.5.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 13.5.2Growth outlook
14Retail and Wholesale market, by goods19 sections
6 segments, value 2025–2035
- 14.1Overview and share, 2025 and 2035
- 14.2Food and grocery
- 14.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 14.2.2Growth outlook
- 14.3Fuel
- 14.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 14.3.2Growth outlook
- 14.4Pharmaceuticals
- 14.4.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 14.4.2Growth outlook
- 14.5Apparel and footwear
- 14.5.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 14.5.2Growth outlook
- 14.6Building materials
- 14.6.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 14.6.2Growth outlook
- 14.7Electronics
- 14.7.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 14.7.2Growth outlook
15Retail and Wholesale market, by channel10 sections
3 segments, value 2025–2035
- 15.1Overview and share, 2025 and 2035
- 15.2Physical stores
- 15.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 15.2.2Growth outlook
- 15.3Online marketplaces
- 15.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 15.3.2Growth outlook
- 15.4Business-to-business distribution
- 15.4.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 15.4.2Growth outlook
16Regional analysis26 sections
5 regions
- 16.1Regional overview and share, 2025 and 2035
- 16.2North America
- 16.2.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 16.2.2By trade type
- 16.2.3By goods
- 16.2.4By channel
- 16.3Europe
- 16.3.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 16.3.2By trade type
- 16.3.3By goods
- 16.3.4By channel
- 16.4Asia Pacific
- 16.4.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 16.4.2By trade type
- 16.4.3By goods
- 16.4.4By channel
- 16.5Latin America
- 16.5.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 16.5.2By trade type
- 16.5.3By goods
- 16.5.4By channel
- 16.6Middle East and Africa
- 16.6.1Market size and forecast, 2025–2035
- 16.6.2By trade type
- 16.6.3By goods
- 16.6.4By channel
17Competitive landscape10 sections
6 companies profiled
- 17.1Market concentration
- 17.2Market share analysis, 2025
- 17.3Strategic moves: acquisitions, launches, contracts
- 17.4Company profilesEach profile: overview, products, financials where reported, position in this market, recent developments
- 17.4.1Walmart
- 17.4.2Amazon
- 17.4.3McKesson
- 17.4.4Sysco
- 17.4.5Costco
- 17.4.6Home Depot
18Scenarios to 20355 sections
Base, slower and faster paths
- 18.1Slower case
- 18.2Base case case
- 18.3Faster case
- 18.4Sensitivity of the 2035 value
- 18.5Published forecasts compared
19Douglas Exclusive: the Trade Margin Ledger3 sections
Margin share against worker share by trade type
- 19.1Ledger table
- 19.2Finding
- 19.3Eurostat check
20Appendix5 sections
Data, sources and licence
- 20.1Data tables (Excel model)
- 20.2Sources (12)
- 20.3Abbreviations
- 20.4Change log and next review
- 20.5Licence and how to cite
TList of tables38
- Table 1Market value, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 2Volume, 2025–2035 (million workers)
- Table 3Value per unit, 2025–2035
- Table 4Retail and Wholesale market by trade type, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 5Wholesale trade: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 6Store-based retail: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 7Non-store and online retail: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 8Motor vehicle trade and repair: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 9Retail and Wholesale market by goods, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 10Food and grocery: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 11Fuel: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 12Pharmaceuticals: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 13Apparel and footwear: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 14Building materials: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 15Electronics: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 16Retail and Wholesale market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 17Physical stores: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 18Online marketplaces: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 19Business-to-business distribution: market size, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 20Retail and Wholesale market by region, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 21North America: market by trade type, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 22North America: market by goods, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 23North America: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 24Europe: market by trade type, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 25Europe: market by goods, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 26Europe: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 27Asia Pacific: market by trade type, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 28Asia Pacific: market by goods, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 29Asia Pacific: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 30Latin America: market by trade type, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 31Latin America: market by goods, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 32Latin America: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 33Middle East and Africa: market by trade type, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 34Middle East and Africa: market by goods, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 35Middle East and Africa: market by channel, 2025–2035 (USD million)
- Table 36Company market shares, 2025
- Table 37Scenario values, 2035
- Table 38Sources and confidence grades by figure
FList of figures9
- Figure 1Market value, 2025–2035
- Figure 2Growth decomposition, 2026–2035
- Figure 3Share by trade type, 2025 and 2035
- Figure 4Share by goods, 2025 and 2035
- Figure 5Share by channel, 2025 and 2035
- Figure 6Share by region, 2025 and 2035
- Figure 7Growth by region, 2026–2035
- Figure 8Market concentration, 2025
- Figure 9Scenario paths to 2035
Questions buyers ask
What does the retail and wholesale margin pool measure?
USD 11.0 trillion in 2025: the value added that retailers, online sellers, wholesalers and motor dealers earn, built as 446.3 million trade workers × USD 24,650 per worker.
What value do trade margins reach in 2035?
USD 17.6 trillion by 2035, a CAGR of 4.81%, from 1.15% yearly workforce growth and 3.62% growth in margin per worker.
Why does wholesale earn more margin than shops?
47.2% of the 2025 margin pool, USD 5.19 trillion, sits in wholesale trade, because goods are marked up at several distribution stages and each wholesale worker generates USD 54,368 against USD 13,141 in store-based retail.
How quickly is online retail gaining margin?
9.71% a year, taking non-store and online retail from USD 1.42 trillion to USD 3.59 trillion by 2035; US e-commerce reached 17.1% of retail sales in Q2 2026.
Which part of the world adds trade margin quickest?
8.11% a year in Middle East and Africa, from USD 541 billion to USD 1.18 trillion, as young workers move into formal grocery, pharmacy and distribution chains.
How large is Walmart in global trade margin?
1.55% of the USD 11.0 trillion pool, a Douglas Insights estimate from Walmart's USD 171.0 billion gross profit and 24.2% gross profit rate.
What do EU payment-term rules require of grocery buyers?
30 days for perishable and 60 days for other agri-food products under Directive (EU) 2019/633, applied from 1 November 2021 to buyers larger than their suppliers.
How wide is the 2035 scenario spread?
USD 15.5 trillion in the slower case to USD 19.9 trillion in the faster case, around a USD 17.6 trillion base; one extra point of workforce growth adds USD 1.82 trillion.
Research & citation
This report was researched, written and reviewed by the Douglas Insights Research Desk under the Douglas Insights editorial standards. Material errors are logged in the corrections log. No section is sponsored.
Douglas Insights Inc (2026). Retail and Wholesale Market. Report DI-CG-10433, October 2026. https://www.douglasinsights.com/retail-and-wholesale-market/