Cement Market

Kilns worldwide turned out about 3.80 billion tonnes of cement in 2025, roughly 100 million tonnes less than in 2024, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. Cement is the hydraulic binder that turns sand and stone into concrete, and the cement market covers grey and white cements sold at the plant gate across six regions. Multiply those 3.80 billion tonnes by a blended realised USD 70.20 per tonne and the cement market totals USD 266.76 billion for 2025; with tonnage adding 0.92% a year and price 1.74%, Douglas Insights expects USD 347.38 billion by 2035, a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.68%. The decade’s carbon benchmark arrived on 18 June 2025, when Heidelberg Materials inaugurated its Brevik carbon capture and storage (CCS) plant in Norway, sized to capture about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 a year. This edition belongs to our construction materials research and follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Why is cement tonnage still rising outside China’s kilns?

On our model, India, Africa and the Gulf add cement tonnage fast enough to give the market a 0.92% annual volume leg to 2035, even though Chinese output fell 5.56% last year. Three drivers add 1.73 points of gross growth; the restraints below remove 0.81 points, netting the 0.92% leg that lifts world cement demand to 4.16 billion tonnes.

India is the first and largest driver, worth 0.86 points a year. Indian cement output rose from 440 million to 470 million tonnes between 2024 and 2025, a 6.82% gain, on the USGS series. Highways, metro rail, affordable housing and factory floors all pour grey cement, and Indian per-capita use still sits near a third of China’s. UltraTech alone commissioned enough kilns and grinding units to reach 200.1 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of domestic grey cement capacity in April 2026, as its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2026 (FY26) results release records.

The second driver, worth 0.63 points, is development-stage construction across Africa, the Middle East and South-East Asia. Egypt’s cement output jumped from 53 million to 64 million tonnes in 2025, up 20.75%; Vietnam rose from 91 million to 100 million tonnes, up 9.89%; Saudi Arabia climbed 5.88% to 54 million tonnes, all on the USGS country table. Douglas Insights counts 23 million tonnes of extra cement output from those three countries alone, more than half of Japan’s 44 million tonnes of annual output.

Western infrastructure renewal is the third driver, adding 0.24 points. United States apparent consumption held at 110 million tonnes last year, per the USGS, even as homebuilding cooled, because highway, water and data-centre programmes kept infrastructure construction busy. Europe shows the same split: CEMEX’s latest annual results show 7% higher cement volumes in its Europe, Middle East and Africa region, citing Eastern European infrastructure and Spanish housing.

Put together, the three drivers deliver gross cement volume growth of 1.73 points. China’s property drag (minus 0.58 points) and mature-market residential weakness (minus 0.23 points) take that to the net 0.92% leg. The Brevik start-up does not add tonnes, yet it shifts which cement wins them, a theme the price leg picks up. India’s contribution is the steadiest of the three: Indian kiln utilisation near 80% on our ledger means each new 1 million tonnes of demand calls for fresh capacity rather than idle kilns, which keeps Indian cement prices firm while the volume compounds.

Which clinker headwinds slow the cement volume line to under 1%?

Three headwinds hold cement growth to 0.92% a year. China’s property slump removes 0.58 points, rate-sensitive residential building in mature markets removes 0.23 points, and scarce slag and fly ash shave 0.31 points off the price leg. Without them, tonnage would compound at 1.73%.

China is the heavyweight drag. Chinese cement output slipped from 1.80 billion to 1.70 billion tonnes over the year on USGS data, and the country still holds 1.80 billion tonnes of clinker capacity. Douglas Insights models Chinese cement demand falling 2.1% a year to 2035, which alone strips 0.58 points from the world volume leg and leaves about 666 million tonnes of kiln capacity idle.

Residential softness in the United States, Mexico and Western Europe removes another 0.23 points. CEMEX’s latest annual figures show United States cement volumes down 3% and Mexican volumes down 8%, with United States prices 3% lower. Housing starts react to mortgage rates within two to three quarters, so this restraint swings harder than infrastructure demand.

The third restraint bites on value rather than tonnes. Ground granulated blast-furnace slag shrinks as steelmakers move to electric arc furnaces, and coal plant closures cut fly ash; supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) therefore get dearer, which caps the low-carbon premium and removes 0.31 points from the cement price leg.

What does the cement market cover, from Portland clinker to capture-equipped kilns?

The cement market covers four product families worth USD 266.76 billion in 2025: Ordinary Portland, blended and Portland-limestone, white and specialty, and green low-clinker cements. Values are producer realised prices at the plant gate; ready-mix concrete, aggregates and admixtures sit outside the boundary.

Three end uses consume the 3.80 billion tonnes. Residential building takes an estimated 47.3% of cement tonnage, non-residential work 24.9% and infrastructure construction 27.8%, on Douglas Insights’ 2025 split. The Nonresidential Building Construction Market report sizes the offices, factories and warehouses behind that middle share.

The study also tags each tonne by carbon position. Unabated clinker made on conventional kilns accounts for about 61.8% of 2025 cement tonnage on our model; substituted and blended routes, which swap limestone, slag, ash or calcined clay for clinker, carry 38.1%; capture-equipped capacity, led by Brevik’s 400,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, holds under 0.1%. Specialty binders such as resin systems are covered separately in the Polymer Concrete Market report.

Which cement type makes the money: Ordinary Portland or blended Portland-limestone?

Blended and Portland-limestone cement makes the money, with 52.4% of 2025 value on our model, or USD 140 billion, because standards in the United States, Europe and India now accept limestone and slag substitution. Ordinary Portland follows at 40.7%; green low-clinker formulations grow fastest at 12.35% a year.

Blended and Portland-limestone cement leads at USD 140 billion because it cuts clinker, fuel and carbon cost per tonne at once. In the United States, blended cement made up 63% of shipments in the first nine months of 2025, and about 95% of that was Portland-limestone Type IL, according to the USGS cement summary.

Ordinary Portland cement holds USD 109 billion and grows only 0.86% a year. Precast, oil-well and high-early-strength jobs still specify it, but each code revision moves another slice of general building to blended grades.

White and specialty cements earn USD 11.5 billion from 4.3% of value on far smaller tonnage, since white clinker needs low-iron raw meal and higher kiln temperatures; architectural precast keeps them growing at 2.74%.

Green low-clinker cement is the smallest type at USD 6.94 billion but the fastest, growing 12.35% a year to USD 22.2 billion by 2035. Calcined-clay blends, ternary cements and captured-carbon grades such as Heidelberg’s evoZero win public tenders that cap embodied carbon, which is why the type’s share climbs from 2.6% to about 6.4%.

Which buyers specify low-carbon cement for non-residential and infrastructure projects?

Public infrastructure owners and large corporate developers specify most low-carbon cement, a demand pool Douglas Insights puts at about 9.4% of 2025 cement value, or USD 25.1 billion. They pay premiums because embodied-carbon caps and green-building points make the cheaper grade non-compliant.

Infrastructure construction buyers such as highway agencies and water utilities carry roughly 27.8% of cement tonnage and the largest block of specified low-carbon tonnes. Non-residential developers, notably data-centre and logistics owners with science-based targets, write cement limits into contracts. Residential builders remain price-led, so the 47.3% residential share of cement tonnage carries almost none of the low-carbon premium.

Holcim shows how fast the specified pool grows: its ECOPlanet low-carbon range reached 36% of cement net sales in 2025, up from 34% in 2024, as the Holcim full-year 2025 results state. The shift sped up in 2026: ECOPlanet reached 43% of Holcim’s cement net sales in the first nine months of 2026, against 36% a year earlier, according to its third-quarter 2026 results of 23 October 2026, which also raised full-year guidance for organic recurring EBIT growth to 10% to 12%.

Who wins the cement kiln race, and what does each company’s edge rest on?

Scale in a growing home market wins the cement race: UltraTech sold 145.0 million tonnes in India in FY26, a 30.9% share of Indian output. Holcim, Heidelberg Materials, CEMEX, CRH and Anhui Conch compete on carbon position, logistics and regional density rather than global tonnage.

UltraTech’s edge is footprint: 200.1 Mtpa of Indian grey cement capacity reaches every major consuming state, and its 30.9% share is measured on a fiscal-to-calendar basis, per the UltraTech FY26 release.

Holcim competes on margin and mix, its 18.3% recurring margin lifted by a low-carbon line on more than a third of its cement. Heidelberg Materials rests on the carbon frontier, selling Brevik’s 400,000 tonnes of captured CO2 a year as evoZero cement. CRH wins through integration, feeding its own aggregates and ready-mix plants across the United States. CEMEX pairs a 43.3-million-tonne cement business with Mexican pricing power, and Anhui Conch owns China’s cheapest clinker, built on quarry-adjacent kilns and river barges.

Where are cement kilns adding tonnes and value fastest?

On our model, Africa adds cement value fastest, at 5.14% a year from USD 23.2 billion in 2025 to USD 38.2 billion by 2035, because urban growth outruns local kiln capacity. Asia Pacific remains the leader at 57.11% of value, but its 1.85% growth is held down by China.

Asia Pacific sells USD 152 billion of cement in our 2025 base year and reaches USD 183 billion by 2035. Europe follows with USD 37.9 billion, growing 2.55% a year to USD 48.8 billion as carbon costs lift realised prices more than tonnage. North America is worth USD 19.9 billion and grows 3.32% to USD 27.7 billion on federal infrastructure work and data-centre construction.

Latin America generates USD 18.4 billion, rising 3.94% a year to USD 27.1 billion, with Brazil’s 67 million tonnes the anchor. The Middle East delivers USD 15.0 billion and compounds at 4.21% to USD 22.6 billion as Saudi giga-projects absorb the kingdom’s 54 million tonnes. Africa’s USD 23.2 billion grows fastest, led by Egypt’s 64 million tonnes and East African clinker imports.

The wildcard is Turkey. Its 89 million tonnes of cement output on the latest USGS estimate and 100 million tonnes of clinker capacity make it Europe’s biggest exporter of cement and clinker into the European Union, so the border levy decides whether Turkish kilns run full or idle.

Which EU ETS and CBAM rules bind cement and clinker imports from 2026?

Cement entering the European Union has carried a carbon charge since 1 January 2026, when the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) moved into its definitive period under Regulation (EU) 2023/956, as the European Commission confirms. Importers must buy CBAM certificates priced off the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).

The CBAM Regulation (EU) 2023/956 lists cement and clinker among its first covered goods, and the European Commission’s CBAM page confirms the definitive regime applies from 1 January 2026 after a transitional period from 2023 to 2025. Free allowances for European cement kilns shrink in step, from 97.5% of benchmark in 2026 to zero in 2034.

Douglas Insights calculates the charge on an imported tonne of cement at about EUR 1.22 in 2026, rising to EUR 23.6 by 2030 and EUR 48.8 by 2034, assuming 0.65 tonnes of CO2 per tonne and an allowance price of EUR 75. Those figures turn clinker factors into landed cost, and they explain why European producers with low-clinker cement gain share against importers.

How close is clinker substitution to its slag and fly-ash ceiling?

Clinker substitution has roughly 8 points of headroom left in cement. Douglas Insights’ ledger puts the global clinker-to-cement ratio near 0.68 in 2025, against a practical floor of about 0.60 with current standards and SCM supply. Beyond that, calcined clay must carry the load.

Slag supply depends on blast-furnace steel, which falls as electric arc furnaces spread; fly ash depends on coal power, which is closing across Europe and North America. Limestone fills the first 10% to 15% of substitution in Portland-limestone cement, as the 95% Type IL share of United States blended cement shows.

Calcined clay is the next step. Kaolinitic clay calcined at about 800°C, compared with roughly 1,450°C for clinker, combined with limestone lets a blend run at 50% clinker. Producers are already building for it: Holcim launched a calcined clay production line in the Czech Republic this year, as its 23 October 2026 results release records. Standards bodies move slowly, so Douglas Insights expects the global clinker ratio to reach only about 0.63 by 2035, which keeps cement’s process emissions high and the CCS route relevant.

Can Brevik-style carbon capture make cement kilns bankable?

Only with support: Brevik captures about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, 50% of one cement plant’s emissions, and it relied on Norwegian state funding. At EUR 75 per tonne of CO2, capture pays only where subsidy, a premium or a rising allowance price closes the gap.

Roughly two-thirds of a kiln’s CO2 comes from calcining limestone, not from fuel, so no fuel switch removes it. Heidelberg Materials started shipping CO2 from Brevik to storage in June 2025, as its 18 June 2025 release notes, and sells the captured volume as evoZero cement. The model therefore treats capture-equipped capacity as a price driver: under 0.1% of cement tonnage in 2025 and about 1.4% in 2035, mostly in Europe and North America.

Douglas Exclusive: the clinker-factor kiln ledger

The clinker-factor kiln ledger is a Douglas Insights model, built from 45 inputs: 30 USGS country values for 2025 cement output and clinker capacity across 15 rows, plus 15 utilisation assumptions. It estimates how much clinker each country burns per tonne of cement and how much kiln capacity sits idle.

The ledger finds about 1.19 billion tonnes of idle clinker capacity worldwide, 56.2% of it in China. That surplus caps cement prices across Asia and feeds export pressure wherever trade walls are low.

It also ranks carbon exposure. Egypt at 0.95, Saudi Arabia at 0.92 and Turkey at 0.89 run high modelled clinker factors partly because they export clinker, so their kilns face the steepest CBAM bill per tonne shipped to Europe. India and China, at 0.68 and 0.67, already blend heavily; Brazil’s 0.70 reflects its long slag and pozzolan tradition.

How much does a tonne of cement fetch in 2025, from Anhui to Texas?

On our model, a tonne of cement averages USD 70.20 at the plant gate in 2025, but realised bands run from about USD 42 in oversupplied Chinese provinces to USD 160 in the United States. The price leg adds 1.74% a year, taking the average to USD 83.42 by 2035.

The USGS puts the United States average mill value at USD 160 per tonne in both 2024 and 2025, the top of the world band. Douglas Insights estimates realised bands of USD 42 to USD 52 in China, USD 62 to USD 72 in India, USD 100 to USD 125 in the European Union before carbon costs, USD 50 to USD 65 in the Gulf and USD 80 to USD 120 across sub-Saharan Africa.

The 1.74% price leg splits into consolidation discipline in India and Africa (0.95 points), carbon pass-through under the EU ETS and CBAM (0.62 points) and low-carbon cement mix (0.48 points), minus the 0.31-point SCM squeeze. CEMEX’s announced 10% Mexican price increase for this year shows how quickly a consolidated cement market passes on energy and carbon costs.

What if China’s cement slump deepens before 2035?

A deeper Chinese slump drags 2035 cement value to about USD 305 billion in the slower case, against USD 347.38 billion in the base and USD 391 billion in the faster case. The slower path runs a 0.25% volume leg and 1.10% price leg, a 1.35% revenue CAGR.

The base case holds the 0.92% tonnage and 1.74% price legs for a 2.68% revenue CAGR. The faster case lifts tonnage to 1.55% a year as India and Africa build harder and carbon premiums widen price growth to 2.30%, a 3.89% CAGR.

A single extra point of annual tonnage growth adds USD 36.0 billion to 2035 cement value; losing one point removes USD 32.9 billion. Published cement forecasts run from about 2.0% to 5.2% a year, so our 2.68% sits in the lower third, mainly because we carry China’s decline and the CBAM squeeze after the Brevik benchmark rather than assuming global demand tracks GDP.

How was the cement model built, and what are the receipts?

Our cement model multiplies 3.80 billion tonnes by USD 70.20 per tonne to reach USD 266.76 billion for 2025. It uses 15 USGS country rows mapped to 6 regions, 6 regional price assumptions and 7 company disclosures, with every 2035 value compounded from the 0.92% and 1.74% legs.

Regional tonnage comes from the USGS 2025 estimates: Asia Pacific 2.65 billion tonnes, then Europe 350 million, Africa 247 million, the Middle East 242 million, Latin America 177 million and North America 139 million. Regional prices of USD 57.60 to USD 143.50 per tonne weight to the USD 70.20 average.

Three cross-checks agree. The 14 named USGS countries plus the rest-of-world line sum to 3.802 billion tonnes, within 0.05% of the rounded world total. Our North American price of USD 143.50 sits 10.3% below the USGS United States mill value of USD 160, consistent with Mexico’s lower prices. UltraTech’s 145.0 million Indian tonnes match 30.9% of USGS Indian output, in line with its reported market position.

How this report was made: automated checks and AI drafting tools assist in producing this cement report, while the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as set out in our editorial standards.

Sources

1. US Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cement (2026)
2. EUR-Lex Regulation (EU) 2023/956 establishing a carbon border adjustment mechanism (2023)
3. European Commission Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (2026)
4. Heidelberg Materials Opening of CCS facility in Norway (Brevik) (2025)
5. Heidelberg Materials Business Figures 2025 (2026)
6. Holcim Holcim FY 2025 results (2026)
7. UltraTech Cement Financial results Q4 FY26 (2026)
8. CRH CRH reports Q4 and FY 2025 results (2026)