Commercial Vehicle Internet of Vehicles Market

Trimble sold its global truck telematics arm to Platform Science and kept a 32.5% stake in the enlarged company, a deal its annual report on Form 10-K dates to 8 February 2025. The commercial vehicle Internet of Vehicles (IoV) market covers the connected hardware, cellular connectivity and fleet software that link trucks, vans and buses to the operators, insurers and regulators who use their data. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 17.70 billion in 2025: 71.8 million connected commercial vehicles on paid service times an average of USD 246.5 per vehicle a year. Revenue reaches USD 46.41 billion by 2035, a 10.12% annual pace built from 8.6% volume growth and 1.4% price growth. The study belongs to our commercial vehicles and trucks research, and every number follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Who wins the fleet data contract in commercial vehicle IoV: Samsara, Geotab or the truck makers?

Independent platforms win most fleet data contracts today: Douglas Insights estimates the top three independent platforms hold about 20.5% of USD 17.70 billion in 2025 commercial vehicle IoV revenue. Samsara, Geotab and Motive lead; truck makers own the embedded modem but rarely the subscription, so share sits with whoever runs the dashboard dispatchers open every morning.

Samsara is the scale leader by disclosed revenue. Its fourth-quarter release of 5 March 2026 reported fiscal 2026 revenue of USD 1.62 billion and ending annual recurring revenue (ARR) of USD 1.89 billion, up 30% in constant currency. Its position is built on one cloud that joins vehicle gateways, artificial intelligence (AI) dash cams and equipment tags.

Geotab is the largest privately held fleet platform. It passed 5 million connected vehicle subscriptions in its release of 4 September 2025, with roughly 6 million vehicles and assets sending over 100 billion data points a day. Its edge is an open marketplace of nearly 530 partner solutions and resale through carriers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

Motive reported USD 501 million of ARR in its registration statement, up 28%, with nearly 100,000 customers and more than one million vehicles and assets on its platform. Video safety and spend management carry its growth. Powerfleet and MiX Telematics combined into a business that started with more than 1.8 million subscribers and USD 215 million of recurring software revenue.

Platform Science is the consolidator to watch. The Trimble Mobility purchase dated 8 February 2025 in Trimble’s 10-K gave it the in-cab estate of North America’s largest carriers, with Trimble holding a stake valued at about USD 253.9 million. Volvo Group, which crossed 1 million connected customer assets back in 2019, represents the OEM route: the modem ships from the factory, and the question is who sells the services on it.

Which application segment of commercial vehicle IoV makes the money, from location tracking to AI dash cams?

Fleet management and tracking makes the most money, at USD 6.12 billion or 34.6% of 2025 commercial vehicle IoV revenue. Location, dispatch and route data are the first thing every fleet buys, so this segment sits on almost all 71.8 million connected vehicles, while video safety grows fastest at 12.9% a year.

Fleet management and tracking, worth USD 6.12 billion, keeps its lead because it is the entry product on every subscription, from a two-van plumber to a 40,000-truck carrier. Growth of 8.7% a year tracks the connected fleet itself, taking the segment to USD 14.10 billion in 2035.

Safety and video telematics brings in USD 3.86 billion, a 21.8% share. AI dash cams that flag phone use and following distance cost more per vehicle than a tracker, and insurers reward the footage. At 12.9% a year it is the fastest-growing segment and reaches USD 12.98 billion by 2035.

Remote diagnostics and predictive maintenance earns USD 2.96 billion, 16.7% of revenue, because fault codes read over the air cut roadside breakdowns on heavy trucks. Compliance and electronic logging holds 14.3%, or USD 2.53 billion; mandates made it universal in the United States and Europe, so it grows only 6.1% a year. Fuel and EV energy management, at USD 2.23 billion and 12.6%, rises 11.1% a year as electric vehicle (EV) trucks and vans need charge scheduling.

Light commercial vehicles hold most of the connected count, while medium and heavy trucks carry the higher revenue per unit. Buses and coaches are a smaller, tender-driven slice. By fit, OEM-embedded units gain share each model year, but aftermarket devices still dominate the installed base of older trucks.

Why are fleets connecting commercial vehicles to the internet of vehicles at 8.6% a year?

Fleets add connected commercial vehicles at 8.6% a year because video safety, compliance rules, electrification and Asian freight platforms each push new units online. Douglas Insights splits that volume leg into four drivers worth 3.1, 2.4, 1.6 and 1.5 points, taking the base from 71.8 million to 163.8 million vehicles in 2035.

AI video safety adds 3.1 points. Motive says its platform has helped prevent over 170,000 accidents since January 2023, and Samsara’s ARR rose 30% in fiscal 2026 on the same camera-led sale. At USD 30 to USD 50 a month, Douglas Insights reckons a camera fee pays for itself after one avoided claim. Mid-sized fleets that never bought a tracker now buy cameras first and the tracking with them. Douglas Insights estimates that 2 of every 5 new commercial vehicle IoV contracts signed in 2025 started with a camera, against roughly 1 in 5 three years earlier, which is why safety and video telematics outgrows the rest of the stack.

Compliance deadlines add 2.4 points. The European Commission’s 19 August 2025 notice confirmed that every heavy vehicle in international EU work must carry a version 2 smart tachograph, and vans above 2.5 tonnes in international work join from 1 July 2026. That second step pulls a new class of light commercial vehicles into a connected recording regime. Douglas Insights puts the vans newly in scope at about 0.9 million units across the EU, a small count but one that brings small hauliers onto subscription platforms for the first time.

Electrification adds 1.6 points. Battery trucks and vans cannot run without state-of-charge data, so the commercial vehicle IoV link becomes part of the drivetrain rather than an option. Fleet buyers specify energy dashboards in the same tender as the vehicle. Douglas Insights expects battery-electric vans and trucks to make up about 9% of connected commercial vehicles by 2030, each carrying a charge-planning subscription worth more than a plain tracker.

Asian freight platforms add 1.5 points. People’s Daily reported 8.04 million vehicles connected to China’s internet freight platforms by mid-2024, and the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) put China’s heavy truck output at 1.66 million units in 2024, about 45.5% of the world’s 3.64 million. Douglas Insights counts these as paying IoV units only when a fleet subscription sits on top of the state link.

Which hurdles slow commercial vehicle IoV adoption among small fleets and owner-operators?

Three hurdles hold commercial vehicle IoV volume about 2.4 points below its unconstrained pace: small-fleet churn, hardware cost and data rules. Owner-operators with one to five trucks are the hardest buyers, and they make up most of the unconnected base in every region.

Churn removes 1.2 points. Small fleets cancel when freight rates fall, and a USD 25 monthly fee is among the first costs cut. Douglas Insights estimates annual logo churn of 14% to 18% among fleets under ten vehicles, against 4% to 6% at carriers above 500.

Hardware cost removes 0.7 points. An AI camera kit costs several hundred dollars before installation, a hard sum for a truck earning thin margins. Data rules remove 0.5 points, because driver-facing cameras in Europe face data protection reviews before fleets can switch them on.

Where does connected commercial vehicle revenue grow fastest, from Texas to Shenzhen?

North America leads commercial vehicle IoV revenue with USD 6.51 billion in 2025, but Asia Pacific grows fastest at 12.0% a year to USD 16.60 billion by 2035. The United States electronic logging device (ELD) mandate made connectivity universal on long-haul trucks, while China and India are still filling their fleets.

North America’s USD 6.51 billion rests on the electronic logging rule, whose compliance date was 18 December 2017, with mandatory ELD use from 16 December 2019; growth of 9.1% a year now comes from video and maintenance upsell. Asia Pacific’s USD 5.34 billion is led by China, where heavy truck output reached 1.66 million in 2024, and the region compounds at 12.0% because each new truck arrives connected.

Europe brings USD 4.27 billion and grows 9.3% a year as the tachograph rules widen to vans. Latin America is the wildcard at USD 920.3 million: cargo theft in Brazil and Mexico makes tracking an insurance condition, which lifts growth to 10.4% a year. The Middle East and Africa start from USD 654.9 million and grow 7.85% a year, held back by patchy cellular coverage outside the Gulf.

How much does a connected truck cost per month in commercial vehicle IoV fees?

A connected commercial vehicle earns its IoV providers USD 246.5 a year on average in 2025, about USD 20.54 a month, blending hardware, connectivity and software. Douglas Insights expects that average to rise 1.4% a year to USD 283.3 by 2035 as cameras and AI features replace bare trackers.

Douglas Insights price bands run from USD 8 to USD 15 a month for basic global positioning system (GPS) tracking on vans, USD 20 to USD 35 for ELD and tachograph compliance bundles on heavy trucks, and USD 30 to USD 50 for AI video safety. Hardware is either sold at USD 100 to USD 400 per gateway or folded into a 36-month to 60-month subscription.

Big carriers pay far less per truck than the band tops. A 5,000-truck carrier negotiates bundles close to the low end, which is why the blended USD 246.5 sits well below list prices. Price growth of 1.4% is slower than feature growth because competition between Samsara, Geotab and Motive caps renewals.

How do light vans, heavy trucks and buses split the connected commercial vehicle fleet?

Light commercial vehicles make up most of the 71.8 million connected units, because OICA counted 20.9 million built worldwide in 2024 against 3.64 million heavy trucks. Heavy trucks, though, pay two to three times more per vehicle for commercial vehicle IoV services.

Douglas Insights puts heavy and medium trucks at about 41% of 2025 revenue on fewer than a quarter of the connected units. Vans earn the rest of the volume, mostly on tracking and fuel data. Buses and coaches stay below 8% of revenue but buy passenger counting and driver behaviour scoring through city tenders.

Which tachograph, ELD and Data Act rules force commercial vehicles online?

Three rule sets force commercial vehicles online, and they underpin USD 2.53 billion of logging revenue. The US ELD rule began on 18 December 2017, the EU smart tachograph deadlines ran to 18 August 2025, and the EU Data Act applied from 12 September 2025. Together they cover most heavy trucks in North America and Europe.

The European Commission’s tachograph notice sets the sequence: new heavy vehicles from 21 August 2023 carried version 2, older digital units had until 31 December 2024, first-generation smart units until 18 August 2025, and international vans above 2.5 tonnes from 1 July 2026. The EU Data Act, applicable since 12 September 2025, gives fleet owners the right to pull their own vehicle data and pass it to a third-party IoV provider, which weakens OEM lock-in.

In the United States, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) applies its ELD rule to carriers and drivers who must keep records of duty status, with vehicles built before model year 2000 exempt. Compliance and electronic logging is the commercial vehicle IoV segment these rules created, now worth USD 2.53 billion.

Who controls truck and trailer data once commercial vehicle IoV moves into the factory?

Fleet owners control more truck data each year, even as factory modems reach about 61% of new heavy trucks in Europe and North America by Douglas Insights estimate. Most commercial vehicle IoV subscriptions still run on third-party platforms. OEM data feeds now flow into independent dashboards.

The Platform Science deal of 8 February 2025, recorded in Trimble’s 10-K, shows the pattern: a software company buying the in-cab estate, with the device maker keeping equity rather than the customer. Geotab’s 530 marketplace solutions and Samsara’s integration partners point the same way.

What if small fleets stall before 2035: how far does the commercial vehicle IoV outlook fall?

A stall among small fleets cuts the 2035 commercial vehicle IoV figure to USD 34.94 billion, against USD 46.41 billion in the base case and USD 59.13 billion in the faster case. The legs are 8.6% volume and 1.4% price in the base, 6.4% and 0.6% in the slower case, and 10.5% and 2.1% in the faster one.

In the slower case, revenue compounds at 7.04% a year: a freight downturn repeats, churn stays high and the EU van deadline slips in enforcement. In the faster case, 12.82% a year follows from insurers making cameras a policy condition and more consolidation like the 8 February 2025 Platform Science deal in Trimble’s filing.

Volume is the lever that matters. Adding 1 point to volume growth lifts the 2035 result by USD 4.46 billion, to USD 50.87 billion. Rival forecasts sit between 11.3% and 20.6% a year, and our 10.12% lies below that band because Douglas Insights counts only paid service on commercial vehicles, not passenger car connectivity.

Douglas Exclusive: the commercial vehicle IoV compliance calendar

The Douglas Insights compliance calendar is a model built from 9 inputs: 7 dated rule milestones from FMCSA and the European Commission, and 2 OICA production counts. For each date it records which commercial vehicles had to connect and the IoV revenue the step still supports in our 2025 base.

Douglas Insights calculates that the seven milestones support about USD 2.61 billion of 2025 revenue, or 14.7% of USD 17.70 billion. The finding: rules built the compliance floor, but the rest of commercial vehicle IoV spend is now bought for safety and cost, not to satisfy an inspector.

Methodology check: how were 71.8 million connected commercial vehicles counted?

The 2025 commercial vehicle IoV base of 71.8 million paid connected vehicles multiplies by USD 246.5 a year to give USD 17.70 billion. The count covers 5 regions and rests on 13 sourced data points, including 2 OICA production counts, 4 company subscriber or ARR totals and 7 rule dates.

Two cross-checks support the base. Samsara’s USD 1.89 billion ARR, Motive’s USD 501 million and Geotab’s 5 million subscriptions valued at our blended price (USD 1.23 billion) sum to USD 3.62 billion, the 20.5% top-three share. Units grow 8.6% and price 1.4% a year, multiplying to 10.12%. Regions sum exactly to USD 17.70 billion in 2025 and USD 46.41 billion in 2035, and segment 2035 values land within 1% of the total. Related coverage sits in our Connected Vehicle Cybersecurity Market, Automotive Software Market and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Heavy Trucks Market reports.

Sources

1. Trimble Inc. / SEC Trimble Form 10-K (Mobility sale to Platform Science) (2026)
2. Samsara Inc. / SEC Samsara fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results (2026)
3. Geotab Geotab surpasses 5 million subscriptions (2025)
4. European Commission Smart tachograph enforcement notice (2025)
5. FMCSA ELD rule fact sheet (2024)
6. OICA Heavy trucks production 2024 (2025)
7. OICA Light commercial vehicles production 2024 (2025)
8. SEC Motive Technologies Form S-1 (2025)
9. Powerfleet / SEC Powerfleet and MiX Telematics close combination (2024)
10. European Commission Data Act (2025)