Nuclear Small Modular Reactors Market

The nuclear small modular reactors market is worth USD 4,800.0 million in 2025 and reaches USD 20,950.6 million by 2035, compounding at 15.88% a year. The figure is built bottom-up: roughly 1,600 megawatts electric of small modular reactor capacity in active construction and pre-construction spending in 2025, at an average annual spend of USD 3.0 million per megawatt covering reactor module and nuclear island equipment, engineering, design and licensing, construction and balance of plant, and fuel supply and fabrication, triangulated against project milestones, licensing records, government funding and developer disclosures. Capacity in active construction grows 18.0% a year as the first projects move from licensing to build, while spend per megawatt falls 1.8% a year as designs mature, though first of a kind cost risk remains high. This study sits within our nuclear power coverage and follows the published Douglas Insights methodology.

Why did the first leading SMR project get cancelled?

Because its projected cost rose to a level its customers would not pay, which is the central risk every small modular reactor project still faces. For years, small modular reactors were promoted as the answer to nuclear power’s problems: instead of building enormous, bespoke plants that routinely ran years late and billions over budget, factories would build smaller standardised reactor modules that could be assembled quickly and cheaply. The most advanced project in the United States, a plant using NuScale’s design for a group of Utah utilities, was cancelled in 2023 after its estimated power price rose sharply amid inflation and higher interest rates, and not enough utilities would commit. The episode showed that the promised cost advantages of small reactors depend on building many identical units, while the first few units carry all the costs of new designs, supply chains and licensing. Since then, the sector has regained momentum, supported by electricity demand from data centres, government backing and a first wave of projects actually entering construction, but the cost question remains open until the first units are built and their real costs are known. The exclusive chapter of this report tracks first of a kind cost estimates against actual spending by project, since that evidence will decide the sector’s future.

What does this market include?

This study covers spending on small modular reactor projects, generally reactors of up to about 300 megawatts electric per module, including light water and advanced designs. Reactor module and nuclear island equipment covers the reactor pressure vessel, steam generation, safety systems and other nuclear equipment. Engineering, design and licensing covers design completion, safety analysis and regulatory licensing. Construction and balance of plant covers civil construction, turbines, generators and conventional plant. Fuel supply and fabrication covers fuel for initial loading, including high assay low enriched uranium required by many advanced designs. Large conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors below a few megawatts used for remote sites, research reactors not producing power, uranium mining and conversion, and operations of completed plants sit outside the boundary. Value is measured at annual project spending.

Why are technology companies suddenly buying nuclear power?

Because artificial intelligence data centres need enormous amounts of electricity around the clock, and companies with carbon targets want it to be clean and reliable, which nuclear power uniquely provides. Solar and wind are cheap but intermittent, and pairing them with enough storage to power a data centre continuously is expensive. Nuclear plants run at high output all day and night with very low emissions. As data centre electricity demand surged, several of the largest technology companies signed agreements to support new nuclear capacity, including small modular reactor developers, to secure future clean power, and some agreed to restart or extend existing reactors. These agreements provide something small reactor developers had lacked: creditworthy customers willing to commit to buying power from first of a kind plants. Together with government support in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and elsewhere, and national goals to expand nuclear capacity substantially, this has turned small modular reactors from a perpetual promise into a sector with projects under construction. It has not removed cost and execution risk, but it has created demand willing to absorb some of it.

What drives demand?

The first driver is data centre electricity demand. Technology companies seeking reliable clean power for data centres are signing agreements that underpin new reactor projects.

The second driver is government support. Funding, loan programmes, tax credits and national targets to expand nuclear power in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia support development and construction.

The third driver is decarbonisation and energy security. Governments seeking firm low carbon power and less dependence on imported fuels see nuclear as complementary to renewables.

The fourth driver is coal plant replacement. Small reactors can be sited at retiring coal plants, reusing grid connections and sites, which is attractive to utilities.

What restrains the market?

Three restraints are modelled. First of a kind cost and schedule risk is the most important: new designs built for the first time routinely cost more and take longer than planned, and until early units demonstrate real costs, investors and utilities remain cautious. Fuel supply is second: many advanced designs require high assay low enriched uranium, whose commercial supply has depended largely on Russia, and building alternative supply is slow. Licensing and supply chain are third: nuclear licensing is lengthy, and the specialised nuclear supply chain has limited capacity after decades of little new construction in many countries.

Which spending categories carry the value?

Reactor module and nuclear island equipment leads with 40% of 2025 spending, USD 1,920.0 million, the core nuclear equipment. Construction and balance of plant holds 28%, USD 1,344.0 million, covering civil works and conventional plant. Engineering, design and licensing accounts for 22%, USD 1,056.0 million, significant at this early stage as designs are completed and licensed. Fuel supply and fabrication contributes 10%, USD 480.0 million, and grows as projects approach fuel loading and new fuel supply is built. Each category is modelled through 2035 by region.

Where are small modular reactors being built?

North America leads with 40% of 2025 spending, USD 1,920.0 million, growing 16.8% a year, driven by Canada’s first small modular reactor under construction at an existing nuclear site in Ontario, and by United States projects supported by technology company agreements and federal programmes. Asia Pacific holds 34%, USD 1,632.0 million, at 14.2%, led by China, which has a land based small modular reactor nearing operation, together with programmes in South Korea, Japan and India. Europe holds 18%, USD 864.0 million, at 16.8%, with the United Kingdom’s selection of a small modular reactor design for deployment and programmes in Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Sweden and elsewhere. The Middle East contributes USD 192.0 million at 18.0%, Latin America USD 96.0 million at 12.0% and Africa USD 96.0 million at 14.0%. Six regional models sum to the global figure, with country tables in the Excel model.

Who develops small modular reactors?

A range of developers are advancing designs. GE Vernova Hitachi’s BWRX-300 is under construction in Canada and planned elsewhere, and Rolls-Royce SMR has been selected in the United Kingdom. NuScale holds an approved design in the United States despite the cancelled first project. Advanced reactor developers include TerraPower with its sodium cooled Natrium design, X-energy with its high temperature gas reactor, Kairos Power with molten salt cooled reactors, and Holtec, Westinghouse and others. China National Nuclear Corporation’s Linglong One is among the most advanced land based projects, and Russia has deployed floating small reactors. The competitive chapter profiles each developer’s design, licensing status, projects, customer agreements and fuel requirements.

How are these projects priced?

Average spending is USD 3.0 million per megawatt of capacity in active construction per year in 2025, reflecting annual outlays on projects that take several years to build. Total overnight costs for first of a kind small modular reactors are uncertain and have been estimated at levels well above those of later units, with published estimates rising in some cases due to inflation and design maturity. Developers expect costs to fall substantially as designs are standardised and built in series, which is the basis for the slightly negative spend per megawatt leg, but this depends on building many units. Projects are financed through combinations of utility investment, government funding and loans, and customer agreements. The pricing chapter publishes cost ranges by design type and project stage, with the caveat that first of a kind costs remain highly uncertain.

How do the scenarios diverge by 2035?

The base case carries 18.0% growth in capacity in active construction and a 1.8% annual decline in spend per megawatt for a 15.88% revenue CAGR and USD 20,950.6 million in 2035. The cost-overrun scenario, in which early units exceed budgets, customers withdraw and projects are deferred, sets the legs at 8.0% and minus 0.4%, landing near USD 9,960 million. The fleet-deployment scenario, in which early units succeed, series production begins and technology company demand scales, sets them at 25.0% and minus 3.2%, carrying the market past USD 38,500 million. Each 1-point change in capacity growth moves the 2035 figure by roughly USD 1,760 million. Confidence is low given first of a kind uncertainty.

Which rules and standards apply?

Three layers matter. Nuclear licensing comes first: reactors require design certification or approval and site specific construction and operating licences from nuclear regulators, and licensing timelines strongly affect project schedules, with regulators working to modernise processes for new designs. Fuel and non-proliferation rules are second: production and use of high assay low enriched uranium are governed by non-proliferation safeguards and national security controls, and restrictions on Russian nuclear fuel imports affect supply. Energy policy and funding are third: government support, tax credits, loan programmes and national nuclear targets shape project economics and financing. The regulatory chapter maps these requirements by jurisdiction.

What would it take for SMRs to deliver on their promise?

The case for small modular reactors rests on a promise that has not yet been proven: that building many small, identical reactors in factories will be cheaper and faster than building a few large ones on site. Realising that promise requires several things to go right. The first units must be completed close to their budgets and schedules, to give investors and customers confidence. Developers must then secure orders for many units of the same design, since the cost reductions come from repetition, standardised supply chains and experienced workforces rather than from small size itself. Supply chains for nuclear components and fuel, particularly high assay low enriched uranium, must be built out. And regulators must be able to license multiple units efficiently. There is a real risk that the industry fragments across too many competing designs, each built too few times to achieve cost reductions. The model reflects steady growth as early projects proceed, with the fleet deployment scenario capturing the case where series production takes hold and the cost overrun scenario the case where early units disappoint.

Douglas Exclusive: the first of a kind cost and project tracker

This report tracks, by project and design, licensing status, construction milestones, estimated and reported costs, customer agreements, fuel arrangements and schedule changes, converting the project pipeline into capacity in active construction and spending by category and region. Licence holders receive it as a maintained tab in the Excel model.

Methodology and receipts

The model is built bottom-up from capacity: small modular reactor projects by region, design and stage, construction timelines, spending per megawatt by stage, fuel requirements, and project and developer disclosures, with large conventional reactors, microreactors, research reactors, uranium mining and plant operations excluded. Every figure carries a numbered source and a confidence grade in the fact sheet above, and the working model ships with every licence. The next scheduled review of this study is September 2027.