Rolling Stock Market

Passenger coaches built to one harmonised set of electromagnetic compatibility and train detection requirements can now be authorised for use across the Union, the main consequence for the rolling stock market of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/1694, adopted on 10 August 2023 and in force from 28 September 2023. The rolling stock market covers newly built rail vehicles: locomotives, multiple units, high-speed trains, metro and light rail vehicles, passenger coaches and freight wagons, valued at the factory gate. Douglas Insights puts it at USD 66.60 billion in 2025, built from 104,300 vehicles times an average USD 638,500 per vehicle, and projects USD 98.17 billion by 2035, a 3.96% annual revenue gain. The model sits in our rail transport systems coverage, and every input follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Who builds rolling stock at scale, and how concentrated is the competition among CRRC, Alstom and Siemens?

Douglas Insights estimates the top three rolling stock builders, CRRC, Alstom and Siemens Mobility, hold about 46.8% of 2025 new-vehicle value, with CRRC alone near a 22.6% share. Concentration comes from captive home orders in China and from the large backlogs the two European groups carry.

CRRC reported 2025 operating revenue of RMB 273.063 billion and railway equipment revenue of RMB 123.608 billion, up 11.9%. Most of that equipment line is new rolling stock for Chinese mainline and metro fleets, which explains the share. Alstom, for the year to 31 March 2026, booked rolling stock sales of EUR 10.05 billion out of group sales of EUR 19.17 billion, so trains are 52.4% of its revenue. Its order intake of EUR 27.63 billion lifted the backlog to EUR 104.4 billion, as its 13 May 2026 results release shows.

Siemens Mobility posted fiscal 2025 revenue of EUR 12.44 billion and orders of EUR 16.99 billion at an 8.8% margin, although the fourth quarter showed lower rolling stock revenue. Stadler grew 2025 sales 13% to CHF 3.7 billion and carries a CHF 32 billion backlog. CAF reported 2025 rail revenue of EUR 3.30 billion and a group backlog of EUR 16.24 billion.

Wabtec, the freight locomotive and wagon equipment group, closed 2025 with sales of USD 11.17 billion and a record USD 27 billion multi-year backlog, according to its 11 February 2026 release. Hitachi Rail completed its EUR 1.66 billion purchase of Thales Ground Transportation Systems (GTS) on 31 May 2024, reaching 24,000 staff in 51 countries and adding signalling scale to its rolling stock business.

Shares are our estimates of the new-vehicle portion of each disclosed figure, which excludes services and signalling. The seven named builders hold 65.8% between them. Skoda, other mid-sized builders and a long tail of wagon shops share the rest.

Which rolling stock product type makes the money: multiple units, metro cars or freight wagons?

Multiple units lead rolling stock value with a 27.4% share, USD 18.25 billion in 2025. Regional and suburban operators buy fixed electric multiple unit (EMU) and diesel multiple unit (DMU) sets instead of locomotive-hauled coaches. Metro and light rail vehicles follow at USD 14.52 billion, and freight wagons lead by count.

Multiple units (EMU and DMU) are the fastest-growing rolling stock line at 5.04% a year, reaching USD 29.84 billion by 2035, as battery-electric and hydrogen versions replace diesel trains on partly electrified branch lines.

Value follows traction. Metro and light rail vehicles earn USD 14.52 billion because new metro lines in Asia, the Gulf and India each need hundreds of cars at once. Freight wagons hold USD 12.39 billion: they dominate unit counts, yet each wagon is cheap. Locomotives add USD 9.52 billion, mostly heavy-haul diesel and electric units for freight railroads. High-speed trains bring USD 7.06 billion from China, Europe and new lines in India and the Gulf. Passenger coaches are the smallest slice at USD 4.86 billion; the volume is large in India, but a coach costs a fraction of a powered car.

Why are rail operators ordering more rolling stock through 2035?

Rolling stock volume rises 2.30% a year in our base case, from 104,300 vehicles in 2025 to about 130,900 in 2035. Urban rail build-out, mainline fleet renewal, freight modal shift and India’s coach programme supply that growth, while prices add 1.62 points through richer specifications.

Metro and suburban expansion: 0.86 points

New metro and suburban lines contribute 0.86 points of rolling stock volume growth. Metro orders come in blocks of 100 to 600 cars, and a single city contract can fill a plant for three years. Alstom’s record EUR 27.63 billion order intake for the year to 31 March 2026, up 39%, gave a book-to-bill of 1.44, so orders ran 44% ahead of sales and future deliveries are already booked. Douglas Insights expects metro and light rail vehicles to climb 4.57% a year, the second fastest rolling stock line, as Gulf, Indian and Southeast Asian cities open lines.

Mainline fleet renewal and electrification: 0.79 points

Mainline replacement adds 0.79 points. Regional trains bought in the 1990s reach 30 to 35 years of service before 2035. Stadler’s backlog of CHF 32 billion, nearly 8.7 times its 2025 sales of CHF 3.7 billion, shows how far ahead regional train capacity is booked. Siemens Mobility won EUR 16.99 billion of fiscal 2025 orders against EUR 12.44 billion of revenue, a 1.37 book-to-bill. Rule changes help too: Regulation (EU) 2023/1694 lets a coach authorised once run across the Union, which shortens fleet cascades and favours new, interoperable rolling stock.

Freight modal shift: 0.38 points

Freight wagons and heavy-haul locomotives add 0.38 points. Wabtec grew 2025 sales to USD 11.17 billion and its multi-year backlog rose 20.5% to USD 27 billion as railroads ordered locomotives and modernisation kits. Wagon counts grow more slowly than passenger cars, near 1.5% a year in our model, because freight rolling stock orders track mining output, grain harvests and container trade rather than public transit budgets.

India’s coach and train programme: 0.27 points

India adds 0.27 points. Indian Railways built 7,134 coaches in 2024-25, up 9.1% from 6,541, according to a 3 April 2025 Ministry of Railways release. The Modern Coach Factory at Rae Bareli raised output 20.2% to 2,025 coaches. Higher capacity at these state plants also lifts demand for domestic bogies and traction kits. Together the four drivers sum to 2.30 points: 0.86 plus 0.79 plus 0.38 plus 0.27.

Which bottlenecks slow rolling stock deliveries and squeeze builder margins?

Execution bottlenecks remove about 0.31 points from potential rolling stock volume growth, and constrained public budgets take another 0.24 points. Fixed-price contracts signed before 2022 still erode builder margins, so manufacturers are now more selective, which slows conversion of orders into delivered vehicles.

Margins, not orders, are the problem. Supply chains remain the first constraint on rolling stock output. Alstom’s chief executive said in the 13 May 2026 release that “execution on some major rolling stock contracts continues to weigh on near-term margins and cash generation”; its adjusted operating margin was 6.1%. Delays in bogies, traction converters and certification push deliveries back by quarters, and that drag accounts for the 0.31 points.

Public budgets are the second constraint, worth 0.24 points. Most passenger rolling stock is bought by governments or state operators, so fiscal tightening defers options rather than cancelling them. Certification adds a third, smaller barrier: a new train type can need two to four years of testing before entry into service, holding about 0.12 points of volume beyond 2035.

Where in the world is rolling stock spending concentrated, and which region is rising fastest?

Asia Pacific leads rolling stock spending with USD 29.90 billion in 2025, 44.9% of the global total, on Chinese high-speed and metro programmes and Indian coach output. The Middle East and Africa grow fastest at 5.08% a year, from a USD 5.46 billion base, as Gulf metro and mainline projects order fleets.

Europe holds USD 17.78 billion, or 26.7%, and grows 3.47% a year to USD 25.01 billion as regional fleets are renewed under Union interoperability rules. North America accounts for USD 9.39 billion, a freight-heavy rolling stock market of locomotives and wagons, rising 3.06% a year to USD 12.69 billion. Asia Pacific reaches USD 45.60 billion by 2035 at 4.31% a year. The Middle East and Africa climb to USD 8.96 billion, driven by Gulf metro and mainline rail projects.

Asia sets the pace. Latin America is the wildcard. It starts at USD 4.06 billion and grows 3.82% a year to USD 5.91 billion in the base case, but a single Brazilian or Mexican passenger concession can add several hundred cars in one year and move the regional figure sharply.

How much does a metro car, a locomotive or a freight wagon cost in a rolling stock tender?

The average rolling stock vehicle sold for about USD 638,500 in 2025, a blend of cheap freight wagons and costly powered passenger cars. Douglas Insights calculates that the blended price rises 1.62% a year to about USD 749,800 by 2035 as electric and battery traction spreads.

Specification drives the gap. Bands are wide because a rolling stock contract price bundles spares, training and sometimes 15 to 30 years of maintenance. A coach built in India costs a fraction of a European intercity car. Battery and hydrogen versions carry premiums of roughly 15% to 30% over diesel equivalents.

Which propulsion type, electric, diesel, battery-electric or hydrogen, wins new rolling stock tenders?

Electric traction takes roughly 71.5% of 2025 rolling stock value in the Douglas Insights model, because metros, high-speed trains and most EMU orders run under wires. Diesel keeps about 23.9%, mainly freight locomotives and DMU fleets, while battery-electric and hydrogen units share the remaining 4.6%.

Battery-electric trains suit branch lines with short unelectrified gaps of 40 to 80 kilometres. Hydrogen fits longer gaps, but few operators have ordered more than a few dozen units. Diesel stays strong in North American heavy haul, where electrification is absent, so Wabtec’s locomotive order book remains diesel-led for now.

How do EU interoperability rules and national standards shape rolling stock design and approval?

Regulation (EU) 2023/1694 amended 7 acts in 2023 that govern rolling stock, including technical specifications for interoperability (TSI) for locomotives and passenger rolling stock. It also amended the freight wagon TSI, adding derailment detection and harmonised train detection requirements that every new design must meet before authorisation.

Under the 2023 package, freight wagon designs still at the design phase must meet some new requirements from 28 September 2030, while wagons already in production or operation are largely unaffected. The amended noise TSI adds a method for assessing composite brake blocks. Outside Europe, India and North America apply their own national rolling stock standards, so few platforms travel unchanged between the three markets.

What part do leasing companies and passenger operators play in rolling stock buying?

Passenger operators buy about 64% of rolling stock value, freight operators about 24% and leasing companies roughly 12% in our model, where lessors own fleets in Britain, Germany and North America. Leasing companies take the residual-value risk that a 30-year rolling stock asset brings.

Lessors want resale value. Leasing companies favour standard platforms that can be re-leased to a second operator. Freight operators lease many wagons rather than buy them. Refurbishment competes with new orders: a mid-life overhaul at 15 to 20 years can cost 20% to 35% of a new train, so each deferral pushes demand out by about a decade.

How is India’s coach build programme changing rolling stock volumes?

India built 7,134 coaches in 2024-25, about 6.8% of the 104,300 rolling stock vehicles Douglas Insights counts worldwide in 2025. Output at the three main coach factories rose 9.1% in a year, and the mix is moving toward EMU-style trainsets and newer non-air-conditioned coaches.

The Integral Coach Factory in Chennai built 3,007 coaches, the Rail Coach Factory at Kapurthala built 2,102 and the Modern Coach Factory at Rae Bareli built 2,025. Because these are state factories, most of the value stays inside the public sector, and an Indian coach averages well below the global rolling stock price. That lowers the blended price even as volume rises.

How far would rolling stock revenue move by 2035 under slower and faster cases?

Our base case reaches USD 98.17 billion in 2035 on 2.30% volume and 1.62% price growth. A slower path of 1.30% volume and 1.20% price ends at USD 85.38 billion; a faster path of 3.30% and 2.00% reaches USD 112.32 billion of rolling stock revenue.

A one-point swing in annual vehicle growth shifts the 2035 rolling stock value by USD 9.2 billion to USD 10.0 billion. The slower case assumes deferred metro budgets and the execution problems Alstom flagged on 13 May 2026. The faster case assumes Gulf and Indian programmes convert on time and that the 2023/1694 single authorisation route speeds European cascades from 2027.

Published forecasts for rolling stock run from about 2.4% to 7.4% a year. Our 3.96% sits in the lower half of that range, because it counts new vehicles only and leaves out maintenance and signalling revenue.

Douglas Exclusive: the Rolling Stock Backlog Cover Index

The Rolling Stock Backlog Cover Index is a Douglas Insights model built from 10 disclosed figures in five manufacturers’ latest results. It uses backlog and sales for Alstom, Stadler, CAF and Wabtec, plus orders and revenue for Siemens Mobility. It measures how many years of current sales each builder already holds.

The four-builder average is 5.03 years of cover. Siemens Mobility does not disclose a comparable backlog, so its 1.37 book-to-bill serves as the fifth reading. The finding: European passenger rolling stock builders hold five to nine years of work, against under three for the freight-led builder. Supply is tight. Rolling stock output is therefore capacity-bound, and that lets builders hold prices, which supports the 1.62% price leg.

Methodology: how does the rolling stock model turn vehicle counts into revenue?

The rolling stock model multiplies 104,300 vehicles by USD 638,500 to give USD 66.60 billion for 2025, then grows volume 2.30% and price 1.62% a year. The result, 1.0230 times 1.0162 less one, is 3.96% a year, which gives USD 98.17 billion in 2035.

Inputs: 5 regions, 6 product types, 3 propulsion groups and 3 buyer groups. Vehicle counts come from builder disclosures and the Indian production series of 7,134 coaches. Price comes from disclosed revenue divided by estimated deliveries. Cross-check one: the seven named builders’ estimated new-vehicle revenue equals 65.8% of our total, close to the 60% to 70% expected for a market with a long wagon tail. Cross-check two: published 2025 estimates run from USD 56.3 billion to USD 71.8 billion, and our USD 66.60 billion sits 7.2% below the top. Related reading: the Rail Freight Wagons Market, the Traction Locomotive Market and the Rail Signalling and Train Control Systems Market.

Sources

1. EUR-Lex Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/1694 (2023)
2. Alstom Alstom fiscal year 2025/26 results (2026)
3. Siemens Siemens Q4 FY 2025 earnings release (2025)
4. CRRC CRRC 2025 annual results briefing (2026)
5. Wabtec Wabtec fourth quarter 2025 results (2026)
6. CAF CAF FY 2025 results (2026)
7. Press Information Bureau Indian Railways coach production 2024-25 (2025)
8. Hitachi Hitachi Rail completes GTS acquisition (2024)