U.S. Retail and Wholesale Market

U.S. merchant wholesalers sold USD 815.6 billion of goods in August 2026, 16.3% more than a year earlier, while their inventories rose only 7.4% and the inventory-to-sales ratio fell from 1.34 to 1.23, the Census Bureau’s Monthly Wholesale Trade release of 26 October 2026 shows. The U.S. retail and wholesale market covers the gross sales of retail stores and nonstore retailers, excluding food services, plus the sales of merchant wholesalers that take title to the goods they resell. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 15.90 trillion in 2025, USD 7.52 trillion of retail trade and USD 8.39 trillion of merchant wholesale trade, and at USD 24.58 trillion in 2035, a 4.45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The study sits beside our U.S. IoT in Warehouse Management Market, U.S. Pharmaceutical Drug Market and Asia Pacific Retail and Wholesale Market reports inside our consumer goods and retail coverage, and every figure follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Which trade type carries the most retail and wholesale value: nondurable wholesale, durable wholesale or store-based retail?

Merchant wholesale of nondurable goods carries the most, 27.0% of 2025 value or USD 4.30 trillion, the Census Bureau’s yearly totals show. Nonstore retail grows fastest, at 7.0% a year to USD 2.99 trillion by 2035, a Douglas Insights estimate.

Nondurable wholesale leads because drugs, groceries and petroleum pass through distributors before they reach a shelf or a pump. Drugs and druggists’ sundries alone reached USD 1.31 trillion in 2025, up 11.6%, grocery and related products USD 946.3 billion, up 5.5%, and petroleum USD 858.1 billion, down 5.7%, the Census merchant wholesale time series shows. Nondurable sales rose 3.7% in total to USD 4.30 trillion. We give the trade type a 4.2% yearly rate because medicine volumes keep rising while fuel volumes drift down.

Durable wholesale, USD 4.09 trillion, rose 6.3% in 2025, the fastest of the four large blocks, led by household appliances, electrical and electronic goods at USD 940.1 billion, up 13.0%, and computers at USD 345.8 billion, up 15.7%, the same series shows; it grows 4.9% a year. Store-based retail outside vehicles and fuel, USD 3.72 trillion, combines food and beverage stores at USD 1.02 trillion, general merchandise at USD 922.6 billion and health and personal care at USD 476.0 billion, and grows 3.6%. Motor vehicle, parts and fuel retail, USD 2.28 trillion, grows 2.9% as gasoline volumes fall. Nonstore retail, USD 1.52 trillion after a 6.8% rise in 2025, grows 7.0%. Values for 2035 sum to USD 24.40 trillion, 0.72% below the USD 24.58 trillion headline.

How do retail and wholesale sales split by kind of business and selling channel?

Motor vehicle and parts dealers are the largest retail kind of business, USD 1.66 trillion or 22.0% of 2025 retail sales, ahead of nonstore retailers at USD 1.52 trillion. E-commerce took 16.4% of 2025 retail sales.

By kind of business, retail sales in 2025 were USD 1.66 trillion at motor vehicle and parts dealers, up 3.9%; USD 1.52 trillion at nonstore retailers, up 6.8%; USD 1.02 trillion at food and beverage stores, up 2.4%; USD 922.6 billion at general merchandise stores, up 2.0%; USD 622.7 billion at gasoline stations, down 1.4%; USD 481.9 billion at building materials and garden dealers, down 1.3%; and USD 476.0 billion at health and personal care stores, up 7.0%, the Census advance retail release of 10 February 2026 shows. Clothing stores added USD 320.4 billion, up 5.5%, and miscellaneous store retailers USD 178.6 billion, up 9.2%.

By channel, e-commerce sales reached USD 1.23 trillion in 2025, up 5.4% and 16.4% of retail, against 16.1% in 2024, the Census quarterly e-commerce report of 10 March 2026 shows; by the second quarter of 2026 the share was 17.1%, on USD 340.2 billion of sales, up 12.2%, per the release of 18 August 2026. Douglas Insights estimates the e-commerce share of retail reaches about 24% by 2035. On the wholesale side, durable goods were 48.7% of 2025 merchant wholesale sales and nondurable goods 51.3%, and we estimate that about 38% of wholesale value sells to retailers and 62% to manufacturers, contractors, hospitals, restaurants and governments.

What drives retail and wholesale growth: medicines, electronics, online selling or household spending?

Real trade volume rises 2.10% a year in our base case, from USD 15.90 trillion at 2025 prices to USD 19.58 trillion in 2035. Four drivers add 2.90 gross points; restraints remove 0.80.

Medicine distribution: 0.90 points

Medicine distribution is the largest driver, worth 0.90 points. Wholesale sales of drugs and druggists’ sundries rose 11.6% to USD 1.31 trillion in 2025, the Census series shows, faster than any other large wholesale line. McKesson’s revenue rose 12% to USD 403.4 billion in its year to 31 March 2026, with its North American pharmaceutical segment at USD 336.7 billion, its results of 7 May 2026 show, and Cardinal Health’s revenue rose 14% to USD 254.2 billion in its year to 30 June 2026, its results of 11 August 2026 show. Douglas Insights estimates that specialty and weight-loss medicines add about 0.40 points of this driver by themselves.

Electronics and computer equipment: 0.70 points

Electronics and computer equipment add 0.70 points. Wholesale sales of household appliances, electrical and electronic goods rose 13.0% to USD 940.1 billion in 2025 and computers 15.7% to USD 345.8 billion, the Census series shows, as data-centre and office buyers took servers, networking gear and power equipment through distributors. Durable wholesale sales in August 2026 ran 22.4% above August 2025, at USD 418.8 billion, the monthly series shows. Douglas Insights treats part of that 2026 jump as a one-off restocking after tariffs fell and holds the long-run contribution to 0.70 points.

Online selling: 0.80 points

Online selling adds 0.80 points. Nonstore retailers sold USD 124.3 billion in September 2026, 8.2% more than a year earlier, the Census advance retail release of 15 October 2026 shows, and Walmart’s domestic e-commerce sales grew 24% in its quarter to 31 July 2026, its results of 20 August 2026 show. Amazon’s North America segment sold USD 426.3 billion in 2025, up 10%, its results of 4 February 2026 show. Each point of e-commerce share moves about USD 75 billion of yearly retail sales between channels, a Douglas Insights estimate.

Household spending: 0.50 points

Household spending adds the last 0.50 points. Retail and food services sales reached USD 8.70 trillion in 2025, up 3.7%, and USD 6.45 trillion in the first nine months of 2026, up 4.7%, the Census releases show. Payrolls rose 165,000 in October 2026 with unemployment at 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report of 6 November 2026 states. Summed, 0.90 + 0.70 + 0.80 + 0.50 = 2.90 points; after 0.80 points of restraints the 2.10% volume leg times the 2.30% price leg gives the 4.45% revenue rate.

What holds back retail and wholesale trade: interest rates, tariff costs or manufacturers selling direct?

Three restraints remove 0.80 points a year from real trade growth: interest rates take 0.30 points, tariff costs and price-sensitive shoppers 0.30 points and manufacturers selling direct 0.20 points, Douglas Insights estimates.

Interest rates bite hardest on big-ticket goods. The Federal Reserve held its policy range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October 2026, with two members voting for a rise, its statement shows. Building materials and garden dealers sold 1.3% less in 2025 and Home Depot’s comparable sales rose only 0.3% in fiscal 2025 on USD 164.7 billion of sales, its results of 24 February 2026 show, which is why we take 0.30 points off volume.

Tariff costs take another 0.30 points. Headline consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, driven by a 20.4% rise in energy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release of 14 October 2026 shows, and shoppers who pay more for fuel buy fewer goods elsewhere. Kroger’s sales rose only to USD 147.6 billion from USD 147.1 billion in fiscal 2025, its results of 5 March 2026 show. Direct selling takes the last 0.20 points: brands that ship straight to shoppers skip the merchant wholesaler, and Douglas Insights estimates about 0.6% of wholesale value a decade moves to manufacturers’ own channels.

Where in the United States do retail and wholesale sales grow fastest: the South, the West, the Midwest or the Northeast?

The South sells the most, about USD 6.14 trillion or 38.6% of 2025 value, and grows fastest at 4.8% a year to USD 9.81 trillion by 2035, Douglas Insights estimates, as people and distribution centres keep moving there.

The regional split is a Douglas Insights estimate that weights retail sales by population and household income and wholesale sales by warehouse employment, because the Census Bureau publishes national totals for both trades each month. The South, led by Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, carries the largest share of new warehouse space and population gains. The West, USD 3.77 trillion, grows 4.6% on California ports and the Pacific Northwest’s online sellers, while Arizona and Nevada add distribution hubs.

The Midwest, USD 3.31 trillion, grows 4.0%: Illinois, Ohio and Indiana hold large drug and grocery distribution networks, but population is flat. The Northeast, USD 2.69 trillion, grows 3.9% as New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania keep high spending per person but add few residents. Regional values sum to USD 16.61 trillion in 2026, 0.01% below the headline, and USD 24.56 trillion in 2035, 0.08% below it.

Who sells the most goods, and how concentrated is retail and wholesale trade?

Walmart holds about 3.0% of 2025 trade value, a Douglas Insights estimate, on USD 483.0 billion of Walmart U.S. sales, ahead of McKesson at 2.1% and Cencora at about 1.9%. The nine companies below hold about 13.6%.

Walmart’s total revenue rose 4.7% to USD 713.2 billion in its year to 31 January 2026, its results of 19 February 2026 show, and its U.S. business alone equals about 6.4% of national retail sales. Costco’s net sales rose 10.1% to USD 297.2 billion in its year to 30 August 2026, its results of 24 September 2026 show; we place about 73% of that in the United States. For Amazon we count only goods sold by its own online stores in North America, about USD 240 billion, because subscription, advertising and seller-service fees are not trade sales; Amazon’s third quarter of 2026 brought USD 112.9 billion of North America sales, up 6%, its results of 29 October 2026 show.

Wholesale is more concentrated in medicines than anywhere else. Cencora’s revenue rose 5.0% to USD 337.4 billion in its year to 30 September 2026, its results of 4 November 2026 show, so McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health together hold about 5.5% of all trade and most drug wholesale. Sysco’s sales rose 3.9% to USD 84.6 billion in its year to 27 June 2026, its results of 4 August 2026 show. Smaller retailers and wholesalers share the remaining 86.4%, a Douglas Insights estimate.

How fast do trade prices rise, and what does a dollar of sales buy?

Trade prices rise 2.30% a year in our base case, Douglas Insights estimates, between the 0.7% annual rise in core goods prices to September 2026 and the 3.7% rise in all consumer prices.

Goods prices, not service prices, set the price leg, because retailers and wholesalers sell physical products. Core goods prices excluding food and energy rose 0.7% in the year to September 2026, apparel 3.4%, new vehicles 0.6% and food at home 1.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release shows. In December 2025 all items had risen 2.7% and food at home 2.4%, per the release of 13 January 2026. Our 2.30% leg takes the price index from 1.000 in 2025 to about 1.023 in 2026 and 1.255 in 2035.

Wholesale prices move more than retail prices. Petroleum wholesale fell 5.7% in 2025 as fuel prices dropped, while drug wholesale rose 11.6% on higher-priced specialty medicines, the Census series shows. Mix shift toward medicines and electronics adds about 0.60 points a year to the price leg, a Douglas Insights estimate, and falling unit prices for computers and televisions take about 0.30 points back.

What rules govern retail and wholesale trade, from tariffs to card fees and food benefits?

Three rule sets govern trade in the forecast: import duties, reset by the Supreme Court’s ruling of 20 February 2026; card payment fees, cut by a settlement approved in June 2026; and food benefit rules, which 23 states now restrict.

Import duties set the cost of goods. The Supreme Court held 6 to 3 in Learning Resources v. Trump on 20 February 2026 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise tariffs. Duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value parcels ended for all countries on 29 August 2025 under Executive Order 14324, the Federal Register notice of 2 September 2025 shows, and Section 232 duties of 10% on softwood lumber and 25% on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets took effect on 14 October 2025, the proclamation of 29 September 2025 states.

Card fees set the cost of selling. A federal court gave preliminary approval to a USD 38 billion settlement that cuts Visa and Mastercard swipe fees by 10 basis points for five years, The Daily Record reported on 10 June 2026; final approval is pending. Food benefit rules shape grocery baskets: the US Department of Agriculture lists 23 states with approved waivers that bar soda or candy from Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) purchases, with four more starting on 1 November 2026, its waiver page shows.

What if prices and volumes move faster or slower: how large is the retail and wholesale market in 2035?

The market ends 2035 between USD 20.59 trillion and USD 28.72 trillion across three cases, around a USD 24.58 trillion base. Real volume growth and goods inflation set most of the spread.

In the slower case households cut real spending after a jobs downturn, fuel prices fall back and medicine price controls slow drug wholesale, taking 1.10 points off volume and 0.70 points off price. In the faster case data-centre equipment keeps flowing through distributors and new import duties lift goods prices, adding 0.90 points to volume and 0.70 points to price. One extra point of yearly revenue growth adds about USD 2.46 trillion to 2035 value, and one point less removes about USD 2.25 trillion, Douglas Insights estimates.

Recent data sit above the base case. Retail sales excluding food services ran 4.8% ahead of 2025 in the first nine months of 2026 and merchant wholesale sales were 16.3% higher in August, the Census releases show. We read part of the 2026 jump as restocking after tariff refunds and keep the decade rate at 4.45%.

Douglas Exclusive: the Inventory Turn Ledger

The Inventory Turn Ledger is a Douglas Insights model built from 10 inputs: 7 government or court documents and 3 company filings. It tracks how duty changes since August 2025 moved stock levels against sales in merchant wholesale.

The finding, a Douglas Insights estimate: at August 2026 sales of USD 815.6 billion, the fall in the inventory-to-sales ratio from 1.34 to 1.23 means wholesalers hold about USD 89.7 billion less stock than a year earlier stock cover would require. Distributors are selling faster than they restock, which lifts 2026 sales without a matching rise in imports; Cardinal Health booked a USD 100 million refund benefit from the struck-down tariffs, its filing shows.

The ledger changes how to read 2027. If wholesalers rebuild cover to 1.30, they add about USD 57 billion of purchases, a one-time lift of about 0.36% of trade value; if the ratio stays near 1.23, the 2026 sales jump fades and growth returns to about 4.5% a year.

How does the methodology turn USD 7.52 trillion of retail and USD 8.39 trillion of wholesale into a forecast?

Our methodology adds 2025 retail sales excluding food services, USD 7,518.5 billion, to merchant wholesale sales, USD 8,385.4 billion, to reach USD 15,903.9 billion, then grows real volume 2.10% and prices 2.30% a year.

The model covers 5 trade types, 11 retail kinds of business, 19 wholesale kinds of business, 2 channels and 4 regions, using 64 data points, 41 sourced and 23 modelled. Base values come from the Census Bureau’s retail and wholesale releases; growth legs come from volume trends, consumer prices and company results, all Douglas Insights estimates. Arithmetic: USD 15,903.9 billion x (1.0210 x 1.0230)^10 = USD 24,576.4 billion, the USD 24.58 trillion headline; 2026 is USD 16,611.4 billion.

Two cross-checks agree. First, the nine named companies’ counted sales, about USD 2.16 trillion, are 13.6% of the total, in line with a market where no firm passes 4%. Second, 2025 retail growth of 3.5% and wholesale growth of 4.9% average 4.2%, close to our 4.45% rate. AI tools help draft the text and automated checks test the arithmetic and links; the Douglas Insights research desk chooses the sources, builds the model and approves publication, as our editorial standards explain.

Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau Monthly Wholesale Trade, August 2026 (2026)
2. U.S. Census Bureau Merchant wholesale yearly totals by kind of business (2026)
3. U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade, December 2025 and annual 2025 (2026)
4. U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade, September 2026 (2026)
5. U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly E-Commerce Report, Q4 2025 (2026)
6. U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly E-Commerce Report, Q2 2026 (2026)
7. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (2026)
8. Supreme Court of the United States Learning Resources v. Trump opinion (2026)
9. Federal Register Suspension of de minimis treatment (2025)
10. Walmart (SEC filing) Walmart fiscal 2026 results (2026)
11. McKesson McKesson fiscal 2026 results (2026)
12. Cencora (SEC Form 8-K) Cencora fiscal 2026 results (2026)

What counts in the retail and wholesale study, and what is excluded?

The study counts gross sales of retail trade establishments, excluding food services and drinking places, and of merchant wholesalers, at the prices they charge. Manufacturers’ sales branches, agents and brokers, restaurants and services are excluded.

Because merchant wholesalers sell part of their goods to retailers, the total measures trade turnover rather than final demand; Douglas Insights estimates the overlap at about USD 3.19 trillion, 38% of wholesale sales. Food services, USD 1.18 trillion in 2025, are excluded, as are vehicle leasing, fuel taxes collected separately and marketplace fees. Warehouse technology appears in our U.S. IoT in Warehouse Management Market report, medicine spending in our U.S. Pharmaceutical Drug Market study and footwear sold by U.S. retailers in our U.S. Vegan Footwear Market report.