Wood Product Market

West Fraser’s decision to shut its Augusta, Georgia and 100 Mile House, British Columbia sawmills, announced on 6 November 2025 and removing 300 million board feet of lumber capacity, shows where the wood product market stands today. The wood product market covers sawnwood and wood-based panels sold by mills: coniferous sawnwood, non-coniferous sawnwood, plywood and laminated veneer lumber (LVL), particleboard and oriented strand board (OSB), and fibreboard. Douglas Insights sizes it at USD 227.12 billion in 2025, which is 846.2 million cubic metres multiplied by an average mill price of USD 268.4 per cubic metre, and projects USD 331.57 billion by 2035, a 3.86% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 2026 to 2035. Volume adds 1.74% a year and price adds 2.08%. The study belongs to our construction materials coverage, and every step of the arithmetic follows the Douglas Insights research methodology.

Who supplies the wood product market, and what share do the top sawmill groups hold?

No producer holds even 3% of the USD 227.12 billion wood product market. Weyerhaeuser, the largest disclosed seller we tracked, booked USD 4.96 billion of wood products sales, a 2.18% share of global value by Douglas Insights estimate. North American lumber and OSB groups publish the clearest numbers, so they anchor our share estimates.

Weyerhaeuser’s annual report on Form 10-K lists USD 2.04 billion of structural lumber on 4.74 billion board feet, USD 762 million of OSB on 2.92 billion square feet and USD 992 million of engineered wood product. Its lumber capacity is 5.24 billion board feet. The company’s edge is owned timberland feeding its own mills.

West Fraser runs lumber mills from the US South to British Columbia and is now cutting wood product capacity rather than adding it. The 6 November 2025 closures took 300 million board feet out of its wood product base, and earlier curtailments at Huttig, Arkansas and Lake Butler, Florida became permanent, while a replacement mill started at Henderson, Texas.

Louisiana-Pacific (LP) reported USD 2.71 billion of net sales, with USD 1.69 billion from siding and USD 832 million from OSB, a 1.19% share of global wood product value on our numbers. Interfor produced 3.50 billion board feet of lumber, sold at an average C$655 per thousand board feet (MBF). Canfor carries the heavier anti-dumping margin of the two reviewed Canadian exporters. Stora Enso, in Europe, bought the Junnikkala sawmill business to lower costs at its Oulu site.

Which wood product type leads on value, sawnwood or panels?

Coniferous sawnwood leads with 38.6% of 2025 wood product value, or USD 87.67 billion. Framing lumber is the volume base of North American and European house building, so softwood sawmills earn the largest slice even at a lower price per cubic metre than plywood. Panels together hold 48.2%.

Coniferous sawnwood sells about 369.9 million cubic metres at roughly USD 237 each, and grows 3.19% a year to USD 120.01 billion on housing and repair work. Non-coniferous sawnwood is worth USD 29.98 billion at about USD 394 per cubic metre; hardwood flooring and joinery keep the price high, but the volume pool is the slowest grower at 2.58%.

Plywood and LVL earn USD 40.65 billion, a 17.9% share, because structural plywood and engineered beams carry glue and veneer value on top of logs. Particleboard and OSB sit at USD 39.52 billion; OSB wall and roof sheathing and particleboard furniture carcasses keep that pool large.

Fibreboard, chiefly medium-density fibreboard (MDF), is the fastest-growing wood product type at 4.83% a year, rising from USD 29.30 billion to USD 46.96 billion. Flat-pack furniture and mouldings across Asia use it heavily, and fibreboard mills accept chips and sawmill residue rather than peeler logs.

Why is housing and remodelling demand lifting wood product volume?

Housing, remodelling and packaging add 1.74 points of annual volume growth to the wood product market, which Douglas Insights splits 0.71, 0.58 and 0.45 points. FAO counted 445 million cubic metres of sawnwood and 393 million of wood-based panels in 2024, the base that this growth acts on.

Residential construction and repair and remodelling supply 0.71 points. Panels grew 5% in 2024 according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) production table, while sawnwood held flat at 445 million cubic metres, 8% below 2020. That gap matters. A US or European house still uses framing lumber, sheathing and floor panels, and the aged housing stock pushes repair and remodelling spending that buys wood product in small, high-margin lots.

Furniture, packaging and the non-residential pull

Furniture and joinery in Asia Pacific add 0.58 points. Particleboard, OSB and fibreboard together reached 280 million cubic metres in 2024, 136% above the 2000 level, and most new board lines sit in China and Southeast Asia. Flat-pack furniture makers buy board by the container, and every new apartment in Asian cities fills with wood product kitchens and wardrobes. Douglas Insights expects Asia Pacific to grow 4.61% a year in value, the fastest region.

Packaging and pallets give 0.45 points. Industrial pallets, crates and cable drums consume low-grade sawnwood and plywood, and their volume tracks goods trade rather than housing. That makes the segment a hedge for sawmills when house building slows. Wood product used in pallets also sells at the bottom of the price band, which is why its volume share is higher than its value share. Douglas Insights counts packaging and pallets at about 12% of 2025 volume, roughly 101.5 million cubic metres.

Price and volume also reinforce each other in the wood product cycle. When US lumber prices rise, sawmills restart curtailed shifts within weeks, and FAO data show the 2024 panel rebound of 5% came after a year of weak trade. Douglas Insights reckons the three volume drivers lift annual output from 846.2 million cubic metres in 2025 to 1.01 billion in 2035, an extra 159.3 million cubic metres.

Non-residential construction, mostly mid-rise timber offices and schools, is the smallest source of new tonnage today. It earns attention because one mass timber building can absorb several thousand cubic metres of engineered wood product, but its contribution to the 2026 to 2035 leg is already inside the 0.71 points assigned to construction. Plywood and LVL, at 113 million cubic metres in 2024, are the products it buys first; our Laminated Veneer Lumber Market report tracks that niche.

What headwinds are holding wood product mills below capacity?

Three headwinds remove 0.84 points of volume growth from the wood product market in our slower case: trade duties take 0.38 points, timber supply 0.29 points and deforestation compliance 0.17 points. Each one already shows up in mill closures or customs data.

Trade duties come first. The US Department of Commerce’s final anti-dumping review published on 29 July 2025 set margins of 35.53% for Canfor, 9.65% for West Fraser and 20.56% for 259 non-selected Canadian exporters. A 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood lumber then applied from 14 October 2025. Interfor now cites a 35.16% combined anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) rate. Douglas Insights models 0.38 points of wood product volume lost or rerouted as a result.

Timber supply removes 0.29 points. West Fraser said 100 Mile House could no longer get enough economically viable timber, and the Augusta mill lost viable residual outlets. Capacity closed for lack of logs rarely restarts, so Douglas Insights treats the lost wood product output as permanent.

Deforestation compliance takes 0.17 points. Importers into the EU must trace wood product to the plot of land, and smaller sawmills in tropical supply chains face the highest cost per cubic metre to do so.

Where is wood product consumption growing fastest?

Asia Pacific leads with USD 94.71 billion of 2025 wood product value, 41.7% of the total, and grows fastest at 4.61% a year to USD 148.64 billion. Panel and furniture production in China and Southeast Asia drives that lead, and the region adds USD 53.93 billion by 2035.

Europe holds USD 56.55 billion and grows 2.73% a year, the slowest, because European house building is the weakest of the major regions in our model. North America is worth USD 53.60 billion and grows 3.37%; it overtakes Europe by 2035 at USD 74.66 billion once US house building recovers and tariffs pull more wood product from US mills.

Latin America is the wildcard. Its USD 14.31 billion base grows 4.46% a year to USD 22.14 billion on plantation-fed plywood and MDF exports. FAO counted a 2% rise in the region’s sawnwood output in 2024 while North America fell 2%. The Middle East and Africa import most of their wood product and reach USD 12.10 billion by 2035 from USD 7.95 billion.

What price per cubic metre do lumber and OSB mills realise for wood product?

The average wood product sells for USD 268.4 per cubic metre at the mill gate in 2025, by Douglas Insights estimate. Bands run from about USD 215 for fibreboard to about USD 394 for hardwood sawnwood, with framing lumber near USD 237 and OSB near the average.

Weyerhaeuser’s filing implies about USD 430 per MBF for structural lumber and about USD 261 per thousand square feet of 3/8-inch OSB, by our division of disclosed sales by volume. At 1.7 cubic metres per MBF, lumber works out near USD 253 per cubic metre, and OSB near USD 295. Interfor’s C$655 per MBF sits in the same band.

Price adds 2.08% a year to 2035, taking the mix-weighted average from USD 268.4 to USD 329.8 per cubic metre. Duties raise delivered US prices, glue and energy costs push panels, and a shift toward plywood and LVL lifts the mix.

How did the 2024 production recovery set the wood product baseline?

FAO data show 838 million cubic metres of sawnwood and wood-based panels in 2024, and Douglas Insights puts 2025 wood product volume at 846.2 million cubic metres, 1.0% higher. Panels carried the gain while sawnwood stood still at 445 million cubic metres.

Wood product trade recovered alongside output: FAO reported wood-based panel trade up 6% to 90 million cubic metres and industrial roundwood production up 2% to 1.96 billion cubic metres. Douglas Insights adds 7.1 million cubic metres of panels and 1.1 million of sawnwood to the 2024 figures, a cautious step given the US curtailments announced late in the year. Our 2025 base therefore keeps sawnwood at 446.1 million cubic metres.

How do framing, furniture and pallets split wood product volume?

Residential construction absorbs about 41% of wood product volume, by Douglas Insights estimate, ahead of furniture and joinery at about 23% and repair and remodelling at about 16%. Packaging and pallets take about 12% and non-residential construction about 8%, shares Douglas Insights holds steady to 2035.

The end-use split explains the price mix. Framing lumber and OSB go to residential construction at the low end of the price band, while furniture and joinery buy MDF and hardwood at higher prices per cubic metre. Mills selling to the Modular Homes Market buy panels in factory volumes, a small but steady wood product channel.

How could softwood duties and the 2027 furniture tariff change the wood product forecast to 2035?

The base case ends at USD 331.57 billion in 2035, the slower case at USD 284.06 billion and the faster case at USD 373.98 billion. Volume and price legs are 1.74% and 2.08% in the base, 0.90% and 1.35% in the slower case, and 2.45% and 2.60% in the faster case.

The slower case assumes duties stay at today’s levels and the scheduled tariff steps take effect on 1 January 2027. The proclamation of 31 December 2025 deferred the increase on upholstered wooden furniture from 25% to 30% and on kitchen cabinets and vanities from 25% to 50% to that date. More closures like West Fraser’s 300 million board feet would follow in that world.

The faster case assumes a US and Canada settlement, steady US house building and quicker Asian board demand. A single extra point of yearly volume growth adds about USD 34.07 billion to the 2035 wood product total. Published forecasts run from about 3.7% to 7.1% a year, and our 3.86% sits near the low end because we count mill sales only, not furniture or retail markups.

What trade law and deforestation rules must wood product exporters comply with?

Two rule sets decide wood product trade to 2027: US Section 232 tariffs plus AD and CVD deposits on Canadian lumber, and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Together they touch more than half of global wood product value, by Douglas Insights count.

Regulation (EU) 2025/2650, published in the Official Journal on 23 December 2025, moved EUDR application to 30 December 2026 for most operators, with micro and small operators six months later. Sawnwood, plywood, particleboard and fibreboard all fall within its wood chapter, so every importer must file due diligence statements with plot-level geolocation.

In North America, Canadian lumber faces three layers at once: the AD deposit, the CVD deposit and the 10% Section 232 tariff. Structural grading and panel emission rules differ by country, which keeps most wood product trade within established grade systems.

Douglas Exclusive: the wood product trade-rule calendar

The Douglas Insights wood product trade-rule calendar is our own model, built from 11 inputs: nine dated events read in primary sources and two FAO production series. It assigns each event a modelled effect on 2026 to 2035 volume growth, in points, so buyers can see when the 0.84 points of downside in our slower case would arrive.

The finding: 0.46 points of the slower-case drag already sit in events dated up to 12 February 2026, led by the timber-driven West Fraser closures at 0.29 points. The other 0.38 points land on 30 December 2026 and 1 January 2027, fewer than three months away, so wood product buyers have one quarter left to lock supply.

Receipts check: how do cubic metres and mill prices build the wood product total?

846.2 million cubic metres times USD 268.4 equals USD 227.12 billion, the 2025 wood product base. Volume comes from FAO production series for 2024; price comes from company filings and our segment price bands, set across 5 product types.

The model counts 5 product segments and 5 regions, with 25 region-segment cells. It uses 2 FAO volume series, 3 company filings for price (Weyerhaeuser, Interfor, LP) and 9 dated events. Segment values add to USD 227.12 billion and their 2035 values come within 0.5% of USD 331.57 billion. Regions match the global row to within USD 0.1 million in 2025 and 2035. As a cross-check, Weyerhaeuser’s implied lumber price of USD 253 per cubic metre lies within 7% of our USD 237 coniferous band. The Cement Market report uses the same receipt method for a competing building material.

What should mill owners and wood product buyers do before 2027?

Wood product buyers should secure 2027 supply before 30 December 2026, when EUDR applies, and before 1 January 2027, when US cabinet tariffs are scheduled to reach 50%. Mill owners should favour panels, which grow 4.36% to 4.83% a year against 3.19% for coniferous sawnwood.

Our verdict is plain. Panels win. Fibreboard at 4.83%, particleboard and OSB at 4.62% and plywood and LVL at 4.36% all beat coniferous sawnwood at 3.19%. Asia Pacific, at 4.61% a year, adds USD 53.93 billion of wood product value by 2035, more than every other region combined at USD 50.52 billion.

Sources

1. FAO Forest product data: global production 2024 (2025)
2. West Fraser West Fraser Reduces Lumber Capacity (2025)
3. Federal Register Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review (2025)
4. The White House Amendments to Adjusting Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products (2025)
5. EUR-Lex Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 (2025)
6. SEC Weyerhaeuser Form 10-K FY2025 (2026)
7. Interfor Interfor Reports Q4'25 Results (2026)
8. Louisiana-Pacific LP Building Solutions fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (Form 8-K) (2026)